World Energy Outlook 2007

Global primary energy intensity, measured as total energy use per unit of gross
domestic product, is projected to fall on average by 1.8% per year over 2005-
2030. This compares with a decline of 1.6% over the period 1990-2005
(Figure 1.5). The projected acceleration in the rate of decline is due largely to
faster structural economic change away from heavy manufacturing and towards
less energy-intensive service activities and lighter industry. For this reason – and
due to the strong potential for thermal efficiency gains in power generation –
intensity falls most quickly in the non-OECD regions. The transition
economies, in particular, become much less energy-intensive as subsidies are
lowered, more energy-efficient technologies are introduced and energy waste is
reduced.
1
Figure 1.5: Primary Energy Intensity in the Reference Scenario
OECD
Developing countries
Transition economies
World
–2.5% –2.0% –1.5% –1.0% –0.5% 0%
average annual percentage change
1990-2005 2005-2030
Oil
Oil demand is projected to grow by 1.3% per year, from 83.7 mb/d in 2005
(and 84.7 mb/d in 2006 3 ) to 98.5 mb/d in 2015 and 116.3 mb/d in 2030.
Some 42% of the increase in 2006-2030 comes from China and India. In
absolute terms, their demand grows by 13.3 mb/d (Table 1.2). Indian demand
grows fastest, on average by 3.9% per year, while Chinese demand grows at
3.6% per year. China accounts for the biggest increase in oil demand in
absolute terms of any country or region.
3. Preliminary data on total oil demand only are available for 2006 by region. Oil does not include
biofuels derived from biomass. For this reason, the oil projections in this report are not directly
comparable with those published in the IEA’s Oil Market Report.
Chapter 1 - Global Energy Trends 79