World Energy Outlook 2007

partially offset by higher thermal efficiencies in the case of advanced
combustion technologies (see Chapters 5 and 9). 3 The results would be a
proportionately much larger increase in coal imports.
The Energy Security Policies of China and India
China and India have differing perceptions and concerns related to the
security of their energy supplies. There are nonetheless important similarities
between the two countries’ energy-security policies. The policy focus in both
countries is on oil, reflecting increasing imports in recent years and the
expectation that this trend will continue in the medium term. Chinese and
Indian leaders are worried that growing dependence on imported oil will
bring foreign-policy and economic pressures that might threaten national
security and social and political stability. Those concerns have grown since
the events of 11 September 2001 and the US-led military intervention in
Iraq in 2003. Both countries have stepped up their military and naval
capabilities, but recognise that they will continue to rely to a large degree on
the United States for protection of international sea lanes in the Middle and
Far East for many years to come.
Consequently, China and India are pursuing policies to alleviate the increase in
import dependence, diversify the sources and routes of imported oil and
prepare for supply disruptions. 4 Those policies are intended to minimise the
vulnerability of oil supply to external events and influences, and to limit the
economic damage wrought by a supply disruption and subsequent price shock.
The projections of oil import requirements described above take account of
current policies and measures in the case of the Reference and High Growth
Scenarios; new policies to curb oil import dependence (and address
environmental concerns) are taken into consideration in the Alternative Policy
Scenario. The principal policies and measures in place or planned are
summarised in Table 4.6. The development of indigenous resources,
particularly coal, has always been the primary thrust of both countries’ policies
to minimise the need to import energy. Increasing emphasis is now being given
to energy efficiency and conservation.
4
3. The deployment of carbon capture and storage, which lowers efficiency, could boost coal demand.
4. The IEA collaborates actively with China and India on a range of policy issues relating to energy
security, including emergency preparedness (see Chapter 6).
Chapter 4 - The World’s Energy Security 175