World Energy Outlook 2007

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infrastructure, housing and services. Between 1949 and 1990, 300 million people were provided with urban housing. Urbanisation also affects energy use: annual energy consumption per person in cities is much higher than in rural areas, mainly because incomes are higher. China is still at a lower level of urbanisation than OECD countries. China’s urban population will grow strongly as a result of natural increase, the transformation of rural areas into urban areas 13 and continuing rural-urban migration. Migration is the most important factor (Sicular et al., 2007), even more so than in other developing countries. The urban population is projected by the United Nations to grow by almost 2% per year over the period to 2030. According to UN projections, the rural population will drop to 574 million, or 40%, by 2030. Within ten years, more than half of the Chinese population will live in cities (UNFPA, 2007). Population migration is theoretically controlled by the central government in China through the hukou system. Established in the 1950s, this created a twotier system covering urban and rural areas, largely to control migration to cities. Hukou migrants – those who change residence with official approval – actually make up a minority of Chinese migrants. Non-hukou migrants tend to move from poorer areas, often in the interior, to richer coastal areas. They do not have easy access to schools, health care, and other basic services. There is growing support for reform, as the current system is widely regarded as unfair. The government is concerned that liberalisation should not result in an uncontrolled influx to the cities, putting excessive strain on infrastructure and services (low-lying cities already face the potential adverse effects of global warming (see Box 11.1). In practice, constraints on movement are gradually being eased, as part of the process of economic reform. This, combined with a persistent income gap between rural and urban areas, will stimulate further rural-urban migration. Migration will increasingly be intra-regional and intraprovincial, as coastal mega-cities become saturated and the urbanisation drive shifts to second- and third-tier cities. Ageing China is experiencing a profound demographic change. The one-child policy instituted in the early 1970s, restricting most urban families to one child, has been a major contributor to Chinese economic growth. But the downside is that China might well get old before it gets rich. The current fertility rate of 1.7, the same as that of the Netherlands, is well below the replacement rate (around 2.1). At the same time, life expectancy has reached 71 for men and 13. This process, known as peri-urbanisation is one of the drivers of structural change in the economy, as rural workers shift from agriculture to manufacturing and services. 258 World Energy Outlook 2007 - CHINA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
74 for women – levels seen in middle-income countries such as Brazil or Saudi Arabia (UNFPA, 2007). China’s age dependency ratio 14 has been rising since the mid-1980s and this trend is set to accelerate. By 2030, the share of the population above the age of 60 will more than double to 23.8%, equivalent to the level of Japan in 2000 (Figure 7.7). Most of the elderly will live in urban areas. The number of workers for every dependant (elderly person or child) is projected to fall from 2.1 at present to 2.0 by 2015 and to only 1.4 by 2030. The working-age population as a proportion of the total population is projected to peak as early as 2010 (Dunaway and Arora, 2007). Age-related illnesses, such as cancer and cardiovascular disease, will become more prevalent, requiring an increase in health spending. Rapid ageing will also increase the burden on the public pension system. 1 600 Figure 7.7: Ageing 0.8 7 1 400 0.7 1 200 0.6 1 000 0.5 million 800 600 0.4 0.3 ratio 400 0.2 200 0.1 0 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 to 14 years old 15 to 59 years old Dependency ratio (right axis) 60+ years old Sources: United Nations Statistics Division (2007) and IEA analysis. 14. The ratio of those aged 0 to 14 and 60 plus to the population aged between 15 and 59. Chapter 7 - Political, Economic and Demographic Context 259
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
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FOREWORD World leaders have pledged
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This study was pre
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Helen Dickinson Carmen Difiglio Sim
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Tarhan Feyzioğlu John Fu Hu Gao We
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Comments and questions are welcome
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GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS ENERGY TRENDS
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Explaining China’s and India’s
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Oil Resources and Reserves 318 Oil
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16 17 Reference Scenario Demand Pro
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List of Figures Introduction 1. Sha
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3.9 Share of Energy in World Intern
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9.7 International Comparison of Fle
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13.5 Contribution of the Coastal Re
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18.4 India’s CO 2 Emissions in th
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2.2 Sectoral Shares in Final Energy
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11.6 Key Policy Assumptions in Chin
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List of Boxes Introduction 1. Model
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16.5 Kerosene Use in Rural Areas of
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World Energy Outlook Series World E
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above current levels in 2030. To ac
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Reference Scenario. In the High Gro
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Reference Scenario, primary energy
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By contrast, faster implementation
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of this increase. China is by far t
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There are large potential gains to
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India are now so big that they are
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of the two giants in international
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second trading period (2008-2012) o
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Table 1: World Population Growth (a
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high (see below). In the longer ter
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Table 3: Fossil-Fuel Price Assumpti
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$41 per tonne to $63 in 2006 (in ye
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In line with last year’s Outlook,
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equilibrium for international trade
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CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS
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standards for vehicles and new meas
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Figure 1.2: Increase in World Prima
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Global primary energy intensity, me
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Figure 1.6: Share of Transport in P
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Russia, Central Asia, Latin America
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It is certainly possible that decli
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Table 1.5: World Primary Natural Ga
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developments in clean coal technolo
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in the form of coking coal, grow st
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(Table 1.8). India and China experi
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Table 1.9: Cumulative Investment in
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policy implementation is critical:
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transition economies, because there
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15.1% in 2030, compared with 11.7%
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Table 1.12: World Primary Natural G
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Figure 1.19: Incremental Non-Fossil
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Figure 1.20: Fuel Mix in World Powe
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Table 1.14: World Primary Energy De
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The regional effect on oil imports
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in the Reference Scenario to 1 481
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The High Growth Scenario projection
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Reference Scenario Energy Demand Th
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having rebounded in the early part
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80% Figure 2.3: Fuel Mix in Power G
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SPOTLIGHT Are China and India Follo
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For both China and India, the story
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imports are projected to rise furth
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equires $956 billion of capital spe
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Table 2.4: Primary Energy Demand in
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Figure 2.9: Primary Energy Demand i
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China and India in the Global Econo
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production and exports of manufactu
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International Trade and Financial F
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total coal use in 2005, and the sec
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total stock of Chinese ODI amounted
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fear that Chinese and Indian export
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SPOTLIGHT (continued) In general, e
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Box 3.2: Modelling Economic and Ene
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Table 3.2: Fossil-Fuel Prices in th
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etween 5% and 8% in the High Growth
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Table 3.3: World Real GDP Growth in
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The results presented here should b
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Energy Security in a Global Market
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■ Adequate investment in producti
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efined products are global commodit
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Figure 4.1: Share of China and Indi
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Figure 4.3: Share of China and Indi
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Figure 4.4: Oil Export Flows from t
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Table 4.3: Net Natural Gas Imports
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Coal Coal dominates energy use in C
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Energy savings Diversification of f
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In China, oil security has emerged
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deprive the companies of profits an
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western markets. Any disruption to
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2015 and 20% higher in 2030. The ri
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Figure 4.10: Major World Oil Supply
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imports is demonstrated by the Alte
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prices to all consuming countries m
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Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions Globa
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In the past two-and-a-half decades,
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Transport contributes roughly a fif
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Box 5.1: Regional Air Quality (Cont
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Box 5.2: Which Countries Emit the M
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egion (Table 5.3 and Figure 5.10).
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Figure 5.11: Change in Carbon Inten
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Table 5.4: CO 2 Concentrations and
Page 210 and 211: illustrate the magnitude and urgenc
Page 212 and 213: Energy Demand by Sector CO 2 emissi
Page 214 and 215: Figure 5.13: Electricity Generation
Page 216 and 217: The capital costs involved in stabi
Page 218 and 219: Focus on Prospects for Clean Coal T
Page 220 and 221: Technologies involving the absorpti
Page 222 and 223: There are a number of barriers to t
Page 224 and 225: scheduled to operate in the first h
Page 227 and 228: CHAPTER 6 ENERGY POLICY RAMIFICATIO
Page 229 and 230: ■ Conserving energy: Conservation
Page 231 and 232: The results of our Alternative Poli
Page 233 and 234: increasing need for oil and gas. Th
Page 235 and 236: Co-operation is a two-way street; I
Page 237 and 238: Technology Co-operation and Collabo
Page 239 and 240: continue to make an important contr
Page 241 and 242: een registered, are being validated
Page 243: PART B CHINA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
Page 246 and 247: The Political Context 1 Established
Page 248 and 249: percentage points over 2001. 3 In 2
Page 250 and 251: education. However, the government
Page 252 and 253: Capital accumulation was boosted by
Page 254 and 255: several times since the beginning o
Page 256 and 257: Yet pockets of extreme poverty rema
Page 258 and 259: year over the projection period, re
Page 263 and 264: CHAPTER 8 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY SE
Page 265 and 266: In the 1980s and 1990s, energy dema
Page 267 and 268: Industry has long been the largest
Page 269 and 270: Figure 8.3: China’s Energy Produc
Page 271 and 272: Figure 8.4: Organisation of Energy
Page 273 and 274: Box 8.2: Energy Goals in China’s
Page 275 and 276: Box 8.3: Coal-Based Alternative Fue
Page 277 and 278: projects are still the largest alte
Page 279 and 280: of these businesses. In its early s
Page 281 and 282: and retail competition, but much wo
Page 283 and 284: Access to Modern Energy China has a
Page 285 and 286: CHAPTER 9 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAND
Page 287 and 288: growth (Table 9.1). It is possible
Page 289 and 290: Table 9.3: China’s Primary Energy
Page 291 and 292: with an 89% share in 2005. By 2030,
Page 293 and 294: exported goods was only 197 Mtoe, o
Page 295 and 296: energy intensity of 9% in steel pro
Page 297 and 298: Non-Metallic Minerals The non-metal
Page 299 and 300: to 7.0% in 2005-2015 and 4.4% in 20
Page 301 and 302: Box 9.2: Prospects for Alternative
Page 303 and 304: develop their own-brand vehicles in
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Page 307 and 308: nearly one-fifth of the increase in
Page 309 and 310: in cities is assumed to grow steadi
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Appliance efficiency improvements w
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FGD units installed, along with the
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Table 9.8: Emissions of Major Pollu
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generate almost 1.2 billion CERs by
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CHAPTER 10 REFERENCE SCENARIO SUPPL
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Figure 10.1: China’s Oil and Gas
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Table 10.2: China’s Oil Productio
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Oil Refining China’s refining cap
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Saudi Aramco taking combined stakes
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Box 10.2: China’s Emergency Oil S
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which close to 90% are onshore (Tab
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Table 10.5: China’s Natural Gas P
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e built, because of concerns about
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coal resources lie in the provinces
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Table 10.7: China’s Coal Producti
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of 829 Mt of coal each year by the
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An outside-plan spot market has exi
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Figure 10.13: China’s Hard Coal T
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Figure 10.14: Electricity Generatio
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China is pursuing a dual objective
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Capacity Requirements In the past t
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to consumers approximately 70% of a
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8 Figure 10.17: Plant Generating Co
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undertaken because of its economic
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China designated biofuels as a prio
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could help China achieve its object
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Background and Assumptions China’
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and consumption technologies. By 20
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Reference Scenario. More than two-t
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The most striking difference concer
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The slow-down in the growth of CO 2
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power generation and improving the
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of nuclear power reaches 6% of tota
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educing industrial consumption, eit
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towards gas-based ammonia productio
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Summary of Results In the Alternati
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Table 11.8: Policy Assumptions in C
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improve and appliance ownership inc
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Box 11.2: Cost-Effectiveness of Imp
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Investment in fossil-fuel supply is
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On the other hand, higher economic
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two-thirds of incremental oil deman
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Of the main final sectors, the tran
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Higher international prices also bo
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128 bcm to 216 bcm in 2030. In orde
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generation reaches 7.4 MWh, close t
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Though higher economic growth would
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The magnitude of the region’s imp
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Table 13.1: Economic Indicators by
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Figure 13.2: Share of the Coastal R
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Figure 13.3: Provincial Energy Inte
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incremental final energy demand. Fo
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Industry Industry is today the main
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the population in Beijing having ac
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The coastal provinces, with a deman
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APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 13: CHINA COAST
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PART C INDIA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
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The Political Context India is a fe
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up from 9% in 2005 and 8.3% in 2004
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Assam are on average poorer than ma
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in manufacturing productivity was t
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Economic Challenges Continuation of
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South Asia is the least integrated
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Box 14.2: Special Economic Zones in
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ecently extended into petrochemical
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CHAPTER 15 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY S
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after China and the United States.
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Box 15.1: India's Energy Statistics
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which was created in 1984 to reduce
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■ Electricity Regulatory Commissi
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and production, and in liquefied na
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(because of the captive restriction
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Table 15.3: India's Integrated Ener
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of Finance's Economic Survey 2006-2
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Box 15.3: Public-Private Partnershi
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CHAPTER 16 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAN
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Most energy prices in India are con
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Energy demand in the residential se
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Iron and Steel Industry India’s i
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80%. Past subsidies eliminated ince
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The transport sector currently cons
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Box 16.3: Upside Potential of Trans
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Figure 16.6: Residential Fuel Mix i
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Biomass use in urban households 14
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Kerosene and LPG supply 83% of the
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Other Sectors The services sector a
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from other sources - mainly industr
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Despite improvements in thermal eff
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Oil Supply Resources and Reserves I
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and decline to just under 400 kb/d
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expansions of cracking units. Betwe
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For crude oil alone, India's import
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Figure 17.5: Main Oil and Gas Infra
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come from offshore non-associated g
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Figure 17.7: India's Natural Gas Ba
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98 billion tonnes, principally in J
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Table 17.8: Coal Production in Indi
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15 000 Figure 17.9: Coal-Mining Pro
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Figure 17.10: India's Coal Producti
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India's coal-fired power plants are
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Box 17.4: CO 2 Capture and Storage
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Box 17.5: India's Nuclear Power Gen
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8 Figure 17.13: Electricity Generat
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India receives abundant solar radia
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in power generation alone is estima
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In 2005, revenues from electricity
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Figure 17.17: Electricity Losses by
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were shut down. Despite past proble
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CHAPTER 18 ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENA
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Key Results Energy Demand Primary e
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energy demand in the Alternative Po
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18 Figure 18.3: Local Air Pollutant
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Box 18.1: The Impacts of Climate Ch
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Summary of Results Total electricit
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Box 18.2: Performance of India's Co
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1970s hydropower accounted for arou
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35 Figure 18.8: India's Energy Savi
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to compressed natural gas (CNG), wh
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Delhi has encountered problems rela
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Policy Scenario, it is assumed that
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Figure 18.11: Change in Investment
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tariffs in the services and industr
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Background and Assumptions There ar
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period by passenger cars, is the ma
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Box 19.1: The Vehicle Stock in the
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Oil and Gas The production profile
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Electricity Electricity generation
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in 2030 will still be low, at 2.7 t
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and rising emissions of CO 2 , NO x
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Outlook for Clean Cooking Fuel and
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focus of government policy is to ex
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The government has focused many pro
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Expanding Access to Electricity in
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stoves. According to the World Heal
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Subsidies on Kerosene and LPG, and
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Uttar Pradesh (4.4 million) and Wes
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ANNEXES
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Reference Scenario: World Energy de
Page 596 and 597:
Alternative Policy Scenario: World
Page 598 and 599:
Reference Scenario: China Energy de
Page 600 and 601:
Alternative Policy Scenario: China
Page 602 and 603:
Reference Scenario: India Energy de
Page 604 and 605:
Alternative Policy Scenario: India
Page 606 and 607:
Reference Scenario: OECD Energy dem
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Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
Page 610 and 611:
Reference Scenario: United States E
Page 612 and 613:
Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific En
Page 614 and 615:
Reference Scenario: Japan Energy de
Page 616 and 617:
Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ene
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Reference Scenario: European Union
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Reference Scenario: Transition econ
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Reference Scenario: Russia Energy d
Page 624 and 625:
Reference Scenario: Developing coun
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Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
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Reference Scenario: Latin America E
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Reference Scenario: Middle East Ene
Page 632 and 633:
Reference Scenario: Africa Energy d
Page 635 and 636:
ANNEX B ABBREVIATIONS, DEFINITIONS
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Coal-bed Methane Methane found in c
Page 639 and 640:
Other Renewables Includes geotherma
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international marine bunkers, excep
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Rest of Developing Asia Developing
Page 646 and 647:
IAEA IEA IGCC IMF IOC IPCC IPP LDV
Page 649 and 650:
ANNEX D REFERENCES Introduction Int
Page 651 and 652:
Stevens, C. and J. Kennan (2006), H
Page 653 and 654:
— (2004), World Energy Outlook 20
Page 655 and 656:
International Energy Agency (IEA, 2
Page 657 and 658:
Chew Chong Siang (2006), Current St
Page 659 and 660:
Williams, R. O., A. McKane et al. (
Page 661 and 662:
Garg, A. et al. (2006), “The sect
Page 663 and 664:
Malti, G. (2007), Carbon Capture an
Page 665:
Pachauri, S. (2007), An Energy Anal
Page 674:
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