World Energy Outlook 2007

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Alternative Policy Scenario: India Energy demand Shares (%) Growth (% p.a.) Change vs. RS (%) (Mtoe) 2015 2030 2015 2030 2005- 2005- 2015 2030 2015 2030 Total primary energy demand 719 1 082 100 100 3.0 2.8 –6.7 –16.7 Coal 289 411 40 38 3.3 2.8 –12.6 –33.7 Oil 173 272 24 25 3.0 3.0 –7.6 –17.1 Gas 47 89 7 8 5.0 4.6 –1.9 –4.3 Nuclear 19 47 3 4 15.2 9.9 19.1 41.9 Hydro 17 32 2 3 7.2 5.3 29.6 42.3 Biomass and waste 168 211 23 19 0.6 1.2 –1.9 8.5 Other renewables 6 21 1 2 26.7 15.8 26.2 145.5 Power generation 285 483 100 100 4.1 3.8 –8.7 –17.2 Coal 206 293 72 61 2.9 2.6 –14.0 –34.0 Oil 9 8 3 2 0.6 –0.3 –8.7 –6.5 Gas 25 45 9 9 7.0 5.2 –5.1 –12.6 Nuclear 19 47 7 10 15.2 9.9 19.1 41.9 Hydro 17 32 6 7 7.2 5.3 29.6 42.3 Biomass and waste 4 45 2 9 15.0 16.0 31.3 169.8 Other renewables 5 13 2 3 24.4 13.6 16.7 73.0 Other energy sector 76 99 100 100 4.2 2.7 –11.1 –34.5 of which electricity 26 36 34 36 3.0 2.5 –19.5 –38.0 Total final consumption 463 699 100 100 2.7 2.7 –4.9 –13.0 Coal 58 86 12 12 4.3 3.4 –9.1 –27.5 Oil 142 236 31 34 3.0 3.2 –8.1 –17.8 Gas 19 40 4 6 3.4 4.4 2.5 6.9 Electricity 79 163 17 23 6.8 5.7 –2.9 –10.2 Heat 0 0 0 0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Biomass and waste 164 166 35 24 0.4 0.2 –2.5 –6.6 Other renewables 1 8 0 1 n.a. n.a. 109.9 n.a. Industry 149 234 100 100 4.2 3.5 –4.8 –13.9 Coal 50 79 33 34 5.3 4.0 –9.6 –28.3 Oil 25 34 17 14 2.9 2.3 –6.5 –10.2 Gas 7 9 4 4 2.6 2.4 –3.8 –7.8 Electricity 38 78 25 33 7.6 6.0 –2.7 –6.2 Heat 0 0 0 0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Biomass and waste 30 33 20 14 0.9 0.8 2.5 9.7 Other renewables 0 0 0 0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Transport 61 136 100 100 5.2 5.4 –7.6 –16.3 Oil 54 115 89 85 4.4 4.8 –13.1 –25.2 Biofuels 3 8 5 6 74.0 30.1 n.a n.a. Other fuels 4 13 7 9 10.4 8.8 44.2 95.8 Residential, services and agriculture 210 260 100 100 1.4 1.4 –4.4 –12.0 Coal 5 5 3 2 –0.8 –0.7 –5.2 –14.9 Oil 33 39 16 15 2.2 1.5 –4.3 –13.0 Gas 1 5 1 2 7.0 7.8 –4.7 –14.3 Electricity 37 78 18 30 6.4 5.6 –3.7 –14.9 Heat 0 0 0 0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Biomass and waste 131 125 63 48 0.1 –0.2 –5.0 –14.3 Other renewables 1 8 0 3 n.a. n.a. 102.5 n.a Non–energy use 43 70 100 100 1.6 2.6 –3.6 –6.6 602 World Energy Outlook 2007- ANNEXES
Alternative Policy Scenario: India Electricity generation Shares (%) Growth (% p.a.) Change vs. RS (%) (TWh) 2015 2030 2015 2030 2005- 2005- 2015 2030 2015 2030 Total generation 1 221 2 305 100 100 5.7 4.9 –7.6 –16.9 Coal 735 1 261 60 55 4.4 3.9 –17.4 –35.6 Oil 33 29 3 1 0.4 –0.2 –7.7 –5.6 Gas 123 246 10 11 7.0 5.6 –7.7 –15.6 Nuclear 71 182 6 8 15.2 9.9 19.1 41.9 Hydro 200 368 16 16 7.2 5.3 29.6 42.3 Biomass and waste 8 79 1 3 15.0 16.0 31.3 169.8 Wind 50 124 4 5 23.3 12.8 15.7 79.0 Geothermal 0 1 0 0 n.a. n.a. – – Solar 1 15 0 1 75.8 39.0 n.a. 100.7 Tide and wave 0 0 0 0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Capacity Shares (%) Growth (% p.a.) Change vs. RS (%) (GW) 2015 2030 2015 2030 2005- 2005- 2015 2030 2015 2030 Total capacity 249 477 100 100 5.5 4.9 –2.3 –8.6 Coal 110 187 44 39 3.5 3.6 –19.2 –36.5 Oil 12 11 5 2 1.4 0.4 – – Gas 31 65 12 14 6.5 5.7 0.4 –17.4 Nuclear 10 24 4 5 12.1 8.7 19.1 41.9 Hydro 66 120 26 25 6.8 5.2 29.2 41.2 Biomass and waste 1 12 0 3 14.2 15.7 32.8 173.1 Wind 19 48 8 10 16.2 10.2 16.8 81.6 Geothermal 0 0 0 0 27.1 13.9 – – Solar 1 9 0 2 38.1 26.3 n.a. 102.4 Tide and wave 0 0 0 0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a CO 2 emissions Shares (%) Growth (% p.a.) Change vs. RS (%) (Mt) 2015 2030 2015 2030 2005- 2005- 2015 2030 2015 2030 Total CO 2 emissions 1 607 2 415 100 100 3.4 3.0 –10.9 –27.1 Coal 1 069 1 544 67 64 3.3 2.8 –12.8 –32.4 Oil 436 678 27 28 3.4 3.2 –8.1 –18.2 Gas 102 193 6 8 5.1 4.7 –1.8 –4.0 Power generation 886 1 268 100 100 3.0 2.6 –13.3 –32.2 Coal 800 1 137 90 90 2.9 2.6 –14.0 –34.0 Oil 27 24 3 2 0.6 –0.3 –8.7 –6.5 Gas 59 106 7 8 7.0 5.2 –5.1 –12.6 Total final consumption 660 1 072 100 100 3.8 3.5 –8.2 –21.0 Coal 264 400 40 37 4.6 3.5 –9.1 –27.5 Oil 359 591 54 55 3.3 3.4 –8.6 –19.1 of which transport 151 320 23 30 4.6 4.9 –13.1 –25.2 Gas 38 81 6 8 3.5 4.5 3.9 10.0 A Annex A – Tables for Reference and Alternative Policy Scenario Projections 603
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
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FOREWORD World leaders have pledged
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This study was pre
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Helen Dickinson Carmen Difiglio Sim
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Tarhan Feyzioğlu John Fu Hu Gao We
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Comments and questions are welcome
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GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS ENERGY TRENDS
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Explaining China’s and India’s
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Oil Resources and Reserves 318 Oil
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16 17 Reference Scenario Demand Pro
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List of Figures Introduction 1. Sha
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3.9 Share of Energy in World Intern
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9.7 International Comparison of Fle
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13.5 Contribution of the Coastal Re
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18.4 India’s CO 2 Emissions in th
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2.2 Sectoral Shares in Final Energy
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11.6 Key Policy Assumptions in Chin
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List of Boxes Introduction 1. Model
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16.5 Kerosene Use in Rural Areas of
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World Energy Outlook Series World E
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above current levels in 2030. To ac
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Reference Scenario. In the High Gro
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Reference Scenario, primary energy
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By contrast, faster implementation
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of this increase. China is by far t
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There are large potential gains to
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India are now so big that they are
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of the two giants in international
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second trading period (2008-2012) o
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Table 1: World Population Growth (a
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high (see below). In the longer ter
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Table 3: Fossil-Fuel Price Assumpti
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$41 per tonne to $63 in 2006 (in ye
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In line with last year’s Outlook,
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equilibrium for international trade
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CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS
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standards for vehicles and new meas
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Figure 1.2: Increase in World Prima
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Global primary energy intensity, me
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Figure 1.6: Share of Transport in P
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Russia, Central Asia, Latin America
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It is certainly possible that decli
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Table 1.5: World Primary Natural Ga
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developments in clean coal technolo
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in the form of coking coal, grow st
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(Table 1.8). India and China experi
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Table 1.9: Cumulative Investment in
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policy implementation is critical:
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transition economies, because there
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15.1% in 2030, compared with 11.7%
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Table 1.12: World Primary Natural G
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Figure 1.19: Incremental Non-Fossil
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Figure 1.20: Fuel Mix in World Powe
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Table 1.14: World Primary Energy De
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The regional effect on oil imports
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in the Reference Scenario to 1 481
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The High Growth Scenario projection
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Reference Scenario Energy Demand Th
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having rebounded in the early part
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80% Figure 2.3: Fuel Mix in Power G
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SPOTLIGHT Are China and India Follo
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For both China and India, the story
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imports are projected to rise furth
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equires $956 billion of capital spe
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Table 2.4: Primary Energy Demand in
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Figure 2.9: Primary Energy Demand i
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China and India in the Global Econo
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production and exports of manufactu
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International Trade and Financial F
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total coal use in 2005, and the sec
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total stock of Chinese ODI amounted
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fear that Chinese and Indian export
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SPOTLIGHT (continued) In general, e
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Box 3.2: Modelling Economic and Ene
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Table 3.2: Fossil-Fuel Prices in th
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etween 5% and 8% in the High Growth
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Table 3.3: World Real GDP Growth in
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The results presented here should b
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Energy Security in a Global Market
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■ Adequate investment in producti
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efined products are global commodit
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Figure 4.1: Share of China and Indi
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Figure 4.3: Share of China and Indi
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Figure 4.4: Oil Export Flows from t
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Table 4.3: Net Natural Gas Imports
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Coal Coal dominates energy use in C
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Energy savings Diversification of f
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In China, oil security has emerged
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deprive the companies of profits an
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western markets. Any disruption to
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2015 and 20% higher in 2030. The ri
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Figure 4.10: Major World Oil Supply
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imports is demonstrated by the Alte
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prices to all consuming countries m
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Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions Globa
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In the past two-and-a-half decades,
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Transport contributes roughly a fif
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Box 5.1: Regional Air Quality (Cont
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Box 5.2: Which Countries Emit the M
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egion (Table 5.3 and Figure 5.10).
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Figure 5.11: Change in Carbon Inten
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Table 5.4: CO 2 Concentrations and
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illustrate the magnitude and urgenc
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Energy Demand by Sector CO 2 emissi
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Figure 5.13: Electricity Generation
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The capital costs involved in stabi
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Focus on Prospects for Clean Coal T
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Technologies involving the absorpti
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There are a number of barriers to t
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scheduled to operate in the first h
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CHAPTER 6 ENERGY POLICY RAMIFICATIO
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■ Conserving energy: Conservation
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The results of our Alternative Poli
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increasing need for oil and gas. Th
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Co-operation is a two-way street; I
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Technology Co-operation and Collabo
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continue to make an important contr
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een registered, are being validated
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PART B CHINA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
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The Political Context 1 Established
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percentage points over 2001. 3 In 2
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education. However, the government
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Capital accumulation was boosted by
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several times since the beginning o
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Yet pockets of extreme poverty rema
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year over the projection period, re
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infrastructure, housing and service
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CHAPTER 8 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY SE
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In the 1980s and 1990s, energy dema
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Industry has long been the largest
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Figure 8.3: China’s Energy Produc
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Figure 8.4: Organisation of Energy
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Box 8.2: Energy Goals in China’s
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Box 8.3: Coal-Based Alternative Fue
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projects are still the largest alte
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of these businesses. In its early s
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and retail competition, but much wo
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Access to Modern Energy China has a
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CHAPTER 9 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAND
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growth (Table 9.1). It is possible
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Table 9.3: China’s Primary Energy
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with an 89% share in 2005. By 2030,
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exported goods was only 197 Mtoe, o
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energy intensity of 9% in steel pro
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Non-Metallic Minerals The non-metal
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to 7.0% in 2005-2015 and 4.4% in 20
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Box 9.2: Prospects for Alternative
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develop their own-brand vehicles in
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standards are most stringent for he
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nearly one-fifth of the increase in
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in cities is assumed to grow steadi
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Appliance efficiency improvements w
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FGD units installed, along with the
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Table 9.8: Emissions of Major Pollu
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generate almost 1.2 billion CERs by
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CHAPTER 10 REFERENCE SCENARIO SUPPL
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Figure 10.1: China’s Oil and Gas
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Table 10.2: China’s Oil Productio
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Oil Refining China’s refining cap
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Saudi Aramco taking combined stakes
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Box 10.2: China’s Emergency Oil S
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which close to 90% are onshore (Tab
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Table 10.5: China’s Natural Gas P
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e built, because of concerns about
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coal resources lie in the provinces
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Table 10.7: China’s Coal Producti
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of 829 Mt of coal each year by the
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An outside-plan spot market has exi
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Figure 10.13: China’s Hard Coal T
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Figure 10.14: Electricity Generatio
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China is pursuing a dual objective
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Capacity Requirements In the past t
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to consumers approximately 70% of a
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8 Figure 10.17: Plant Generating Co
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undertaken because of its economic
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China designated biofuels as a prio
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could help China achieve its object
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Background and Assumptions China’
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and consumption technologies. By 20
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Reference Scenario. More than two-t
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The most striking difference concer
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The slow-down in the growth of CO 2
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power generation and improving the
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of nuclear power reaches 6% of tota
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educing industrial consumption, eit
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towards gas-based ammonia productio
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Summary of Results In the Alternati
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Table 11.8: Policy Assumptions in C
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improve and appliance ownership inc
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Box 11.2: Cost-Effectiveness of Imp
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Investment in fossil-fuel supply is
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On the other hand, higher economic
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two-thirds of incremental oil deman
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Of the main final sectors, the tran
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Higher international prices also bo
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128 bcm to 216 bcm in 2030. In orde
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generation reaches 7.4 MWh, close t
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Though higher economic growth would
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The magnitude of the region’s imp
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Table 13.1: Economic Indicators by
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Figure 13.2: Share of the Coastal R
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Figure 13.3: Provincial Energy Inte
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incremental final energy demand. Fo
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Industry Industry is today the main
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the population in Beijing having ac
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The coastal provinces, with a deman
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APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 13: CHINA COAST
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PART C INDIA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
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The Political Context India is a fe
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up from 9% in 2005 and 8.3% in 2004
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Assam are on average poorer than ma
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in manufacturing productivity was t
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Economic Challenges Continuation of
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South Asia is the least integrated
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Box 14.2: Special Economic Zones in
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ecently extended into petrochemical
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CHAPTER 15 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY S
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after China and the United States.
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Box 15.1: India's Energy Statistics
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which was created in 1984 to reduce
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■ Electricity Regulatory Commissi
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and production, and in liquefied na
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(because of the captive restriction
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Table 15.3: India's Integrated Ener
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of Finance's Economic Survey 2006-2
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Box 15.3: Public-Private Partnershi
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CHAPTER 16 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAN
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Most energy prices in India are con
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Energy demand in the residential se
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Iron and Steel Industry India’s i
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80%. Past subsidies eliminated ince
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The transport sector currently cons
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Box 16.3: Upside Potential of Trans
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Figure 16.6: Residential Fuel Mix i
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Biomass use in urban households 14
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Kerosene and LPG supply 83% of the
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Other Sectors The services sector a
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from other sources - mainly industr
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Despite improvements in thermal eff
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Oil Supply Resources and Reserves I
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and decline to just under 400 kb/d
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expansions of cracking units. Betwe
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For crude oil alone, India's import
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Figure 17.5: Main Oil and Gas Infra
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come from offshore non-associated g
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Figure 17.7: India's Natural Gas Ba
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98 billion tonnes, principally in J
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Table 17.8: Coal Production in Indi
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15 000 Figure 17.9: Coal-Mining Pro
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Figure 17.10: India's Coal Producti
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India's coal-fired power plants are
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Box 17.4: CO 2 Capture and Storage
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Box 17.5: India's Nuclear Power Gen
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8 Figure 17.13: Electricity Generat
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India receives abundant solar radia
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in power generation alone is estima
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In 2005, revenues from electricity
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Figure 17.17: Electricity Losses by
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were shut down. Despite past proble
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CHAPTER 18 ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENA
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Key Results Energy Demand Primary e
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energy demand in the Alternative Po
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18 Figure 18.3: Local Air Pollutant
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Box 18.1: The Impacts of Climate Ch
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Summary of Results Total electricit
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Box 18.2: Performance of India's Co
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1970s hydropower accounted for arou
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35 Figure 18.8: India's Energy Savi
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to compressed natural gas (CNG), wh
Page 553 and 554: Delhi has encountered problems rela
Page 555 and 556: Policy Scenario, it is assumed that
Page 557 and 558: Figure 18.11: Change in Investment
Page 559: tariffs in the services and industr
Page 562 and 563: Background and Assumptions There ar
Page 564 and 565: period by passenger cars, is the ma
Page 566 and 567: Box 19.1: The Vehicle Stock in the
Page 568 and 569: Oil and Gas The production profile
Page 570 and 571: Electricity Electricity generation
Page 572 and 573: in 2030 will still be low, at 2.7 t
Page 574 and 575: and rising emissions of CO 2 , NO x
Page 576 and 577: Outlook for Clean Cooking Fuel and
Page 578 and 579: focus of government policy is to ex
Page 580 and 581: The government has focused many pro
Page 582 and 583: Expanding Access to Electricity in
Page 584 and 585: stoves. According to the World Heal
Page 586 and 587: Subsidies on Kerosene and LPG, and
Page 588 and 589: Uttar Pradesh (4.4 million) and Wes
Page 591: ANNEXES
Page 594 and 595: Reference Scenario: World Energy de
Page 596 and 597: Alternative Policy Scenario: World
Page 598 and 599: Reference Scenario: China Energy de
Page 600 and 601: Alternative Policy Scenario: China
Page 602 and 603: Reference Scenario: India Energy de
Page 606 and 607: Reference Scenario: OECD Energy dem
Page 608 and 609: Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
Page 610 and 611: Reference Scenario: United States E
Page 612 and 613: Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific En
Page 614 and 615: Reference Scenario: Japan Energy de
Page 616 and 617: Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ene
Page 618 and 619: Reference Scenario: European Union
Page 620 and 621: Reference Scenario: Transition econ
Page 622 and 623: Reference Scenario: Russia Energy d
Page 624 and 625: Reference Scenario: Developing coun
Page 626 and 627: Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
Page 628 and 629: Reference Scenario: Latin America E
Page 630 and 631: Reference Scenario: Middle East Ene
Page 632 and 633: Reference Scenario: Africa Energy d
Page 635 and 636: ANNEX B ABBREVIATIONS, DEFINITIONS
Page 637 and 638: Coal-bed Methane Methane found in c
Page 639 and 640: Other Renewables Includes geotherma
Page 641 and 642: international marine bunkers, excep
Page 643: Rest of Developing Asia Developing
Page 646 and 647: IAEA IEA IGCC IMF IOC IPCC IPP LDV
Page 649 and 650: ANNEX D REFERENCES Introduction Int
Page 651 and 652: Stevens, C. and J. Kennan (2006), H
Page 653 and 654: — (2004), World Energy Outlook 20
Page 655 and 656:
International Energy Agency (IEA, 2
Page 657 and 658:
Chew Chong Siang (2006), Current St
Page 659 and 660:
Williams, R. O., A. McKane et al. (
Page 661 and 662:
Garg, A. et al. (2006), “The sect
Page 663 and 664:
Malti, G. (2007), Carbon Capture an
Page 665:
Pachauri, S. (2007), An Energy Anal
Page 674:
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