World Energy Outlook 2007

Alternative Policy Scenario: Developing countries
Energy demand (Mtoe) Shares (%) Growth (% p.a.) Change vs. RS (%)
2015 2030 2015 2030 2005- 2005- 2015 2030
2015 2030
Total primary energy demand 6 395 7 991 100 100 3.3 2.2 –4.8 –13.8
Coal 2 319 2 558 36 32 4.1 2.0 –8.1 –25.8
Oil 1 785 2 214 28 28 2.7 2.0 –5.6 –15.1
Gas 930 1 326 15 17 4.4 3.2 –4.8 –14.5
Nuclear 95 205 1 3 10.0 7.1 18.0 53.7
Hydro 198 291 3 4 5.5 3.8 13.0 16.1
Biomass and waste 1 013 1 226 16 15 0.8 1.1 –1.0 4.4
Other renewables 55 172 1 2 9.7 8.6 12.2 59.9
Power generation 2 297 3 117 100 100 4.4 3.0 –6.4 –16.5
Coal 1 354 1 577 59 51 4.2 2.3 –10.3 –28.9
Oil 153 130 7 4 –0.0 –0.7 –9.2 –16.8
Gas 411 589 18 19 5.1 3.5 –8.7 –24.4
Nuclear 95 205 4 7 10.0 7.1 18.0 53.7
Hydro 198 291 9 9 5.5 3.8 13.0 16.1
Biomass and waste 43 208 2 7 13.6 12.1 39.8 85.6
Other renewables 42 117 2 4 8.8 7.8 5.1 40.4
Other energy sector 803 999 100 100 4.0 2.5 –2.7 –11.6
Total final consumption 4 318 5 320 100 100 3.1 2.1 –4.3 –12.9
Coal 680 627 16 12 3.3 1.0 –6.5 –24.0
Oil 1 476 1 888 34 35 3.0 2.2 –5.6 –15.7
of which transport 758 1 054 18 20 3.3 2.6 –6.6 –18.8
Gas 403 593 9 11 4.5 3.4 –1.5 –4.4
Electricity 763 1 125 18 21 6.0 3.9 –3.9 –13.8
Heat 70 77 2 1 4.7 2.2 –5.0 –18.2
Biomass and waste 914 955 21 18 0.5 0.4 –2.4 –4.5
of which biofuels 26 75 1 1 13.4 9.7 63.9 86.9
Other renewables 13 55 0 1 13.5 11.4 42.4 126.6
Electricity (TWh) Shares (%) Growth (% p.a.) Change vs. RS (%)
Total generation 10 945 15 943 100 100 5.8 3.8 –4.0 –13.5
Coal 5 381 6 826 49 43 5.8 3.3 –11.7 –31.4
Oil 630 558 6 3 0.6 –0.3 –4.3 –7.8
Gas 1 959 3 089 18 19 6.4 4.4 –4.3 –17.0
Nuclear 366 786 3 5 10.0 7.1 18.0 53.7
Hydro 2 304 3 389 21 21 5.5 3.8 13.0 16.1
Biomass and waste 125 555 1 3 13.2 11.5 36.7 78.0
Wind 137 501 1 3 30.7 17.2 16.5 70.5
Geothermal 36 77 0 0 6.7 5.8 0.1 11.9
Solar 7 161 0 1 26.4 24.5 145.0 n.a.
Tide and wave 0 1 0 0 – 16.8 – n.a.
CO 2
emissions (Mt) Shares (%) Growth (% p.a.) Change vs. RS (%)
Total CO 2
emissions 15 220 17 914 100 100 3.6 2.1 –7.4 –21.8
Coal 8 622 9 374 57 52 3.9 1.9 –8.7 –26.9
Oil 4 564 5 649 30 32 2.7 1.9 –5.8 –15.4
Gas 2 035 2 890 13 16 4.4 3.2 –5.2 –15.5
Power generation 6 865 8 093 100 100 4.0 2.2 –9.9 –27.6
Coal 5 414 6 299 79 78 4.2 2.3 –10.3 –28.8
Oil 486 411 7 5 0.0 –0.7 –9.1 –16.7
Gas 964 1 383 14 17 5.2 3.5 –8.5 –24.2
Total final consumption 7 505 8 769 100 100 3.2 1.9 –5.5 –17.4
Coal 2 901 2 685 39 31 3.0 0.9 –6.6 –24.3
Oil 3 778 4 875 50 56 3.1 2.3 –5.5 –15.8
Gas 826 1 208 11 14 4.2 3.2 –1.7 –5.1
A
Annex A – Tables for Reference and Alternative Policy Scenario Projections 623