World Energy Outlook 2007

Higher international prices also boost China’s production of crude oil in the High
Growth Scenario, to 4.5 mb/d in 2015 and 4.3 mb/d in 2030, which is 830 kb/d,
or one-quarter, higher than in the Reference Scenario. Conventional oil
production in 2030 increases by 270 kb/d, through the more active use of
enhanced oil recovery techniques (Box 12.1). Coal-to-liquids (CTL) production
is also boosted by higher oil prices, reaching 1.3 mb/d in 2030 – 560 kb/d more
than in the Reference Scenario.
Box 12.1: Prospects for Enhanced Oil Recovery in China
The production profile of China’s existing oilfields, as well as of those
awaiting development, is a major source of uncertainty. Future rates of
production decline (see Chapter 1) will be affected by both geology and
economic factors. Currently, only 174 out of a total of 492 fields in
production benefit from improved and enhanced recovery techniques.
On average, those fields have an expected average recovery rate of 27% of
the oil originally in place 1 , though rates vary widely, from 10% to 60%.
In the High Growth Scenario, we assume enhanced recovery techniques
boost recovery rates on average by 10 percentage points, because the
techniques are more widely used with higher oil prices. Table 12.2 shows
the results of simulating the implementation of those techniques at the
main producing fields where such techniques are not yet used and at
200 discovered fields which are awaiting development and have reserves
of more than 20 million barrels (Mb) each. The resulting increase in total
production, compared with the Reference Scenario, is more than
360 kb/d in 2015 and 270 kb/d in 2030. Most of the increase would
come from fields yet to be developed. It is easier to achieve a high recovery
rate using enhanced oil recovery techniques when they are planned and
implemented early in the life of the oilfield.
Although our field-by-field analysis does not cover all the 318 fields which
are known to be producing through primary recovery, only 61 of them
hold initial reserves higher than 50 Mb and their average rate of depletion
is close to 40%.
Oil imports in 2015 increase from 7.1 mb/d in the Reference Scenario to
8.3 mb/d in the High Growth Scenario (Figure 12.5). In 2030, China needs to
import 17.2 mb/d, which is 4.1 mb/d, or 31%, more than in the Reference
Scenario. This increment is larger than Iran’s entire production in 2006. China
becomes the world’s biggest oil importer before 2030. With increased oil
imports, China becomes more vulnerable to supply disruptions and needs to
spend more on emergency oil stocks to maintain the same forward coverage of
oil imports.
1. The total oil content of an oil reservoir.
396 World Energy Outlook 2007 - CHINA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS