World Energy Outlook 2007

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Oil Supply Resources and Reserves India's proven reserves of oil amounted to 5.6 billion barrels at the end of 2006, equal to 0.4% of world reserves. 1 Official government data put "proved and indicated" reserves on 1 April 2006 at 756 million tonnes or about 5.4 billion barrels. Reserves are almost equally shared between onshore and offshore (Table 17.1). But the average size of the offshore fields is much bigger. Onshore reserves are fragmented in small to medium-size fields. Despite the uncertainty related to the level of production so far from a few fields, we estimate that more than 50% of the ultimately recoverable reserves from identified fields have been produced, excluding the volumes in fields yet to be discovered. Table 17.1: India's Oil Reserves, End-2005 Onshore Offshore On/Offshore Total Number of fields 242 91 3 336 Proven and probable reserves (million barrels) 2 650 2 525 180 5 355 Cumulative production to date (million barrels) 2 603 3 414 167 6 184 Sources: IHS Energy databases; IEA estimates. The reserves are mainly located in five sedimentary basins: Mumbai (38%), Cambay (20%) and Barmer (15%) in the north-west, close to the border with Pakistan, Assam shelf (18%) in the north-east and Krishna-Godavari (7%) in the south. The Assam shelf, Barmer and Cambay basins are almost entirely onshore while the Mumbai and the Krishna-Godavari basins are exclusively offshore. Since 1997, 97 oilfields have been discovered, mainly located in the Assam shelf, Cambay and Barmer basins. These fields represent almost 30% of all fields ever discovered in India, highlighting the effort deployed in exploration under the new upstream licensing regime (see Oil Production below). However, the 1 320 million barrels of reserves that were added represent only 13% of the oil discovered before 1997, as recent discoveries have generally been much smaller. We estimate that about 43% of the undiscovered volumes of oil that were estimated to exist in 1995 by the United States Geological Survey in 2000 have already been discovered. 1. Oil and Gas Journal, 18 December 2006. 490 World Energy Outlook 2007 - INDIA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
Figure 17.1: Oil Discoveries in India Since 1997 million barrels 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 number 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 0 Reserves Number of fields (right axis) Sources: IHS Energy databases; IEA estimates. Oil Production 2 Oil production in India amounted to 793 thousand barrels per day in 2006, of which 687 kb/d were crude oil and 106 kb/d natural gas liquids (NGLs). About three-quarters of total production came from nine offshore fields, with 85 onshore fields making up the rest (Table 17.2). A few major fields discovered in the 1970s and 1980s account for the bulk of India's oil output. The top five producing fields contribute half (Table 17.3). Most producing fields are now in decline, including the nine offshore fields which account for 60% of total production. We estimate that 80% of current production comes from fields which have passed their peak. Despite some significant discoveries since the New Exploration Licensing Policy (NELP) has been implemented and the fact that obviously only a portion of the sedimentary basins has been actively explored, India can be regarded as a mature oil-producing country. Reforms undertaken by the Indian authorities since the beginning of the 1990s, one of which is the NELP, have had a positive impact on domestic production by allowing the private sector partly to compensate for the declining contribution of the national companies. In the Reference Scenario, India's total oil output is projected to increase from 793 kb/d in 2006 to 870 kb/d in 2010 and then fall back to about 520 kb/d in 2030. Crude production is projected to peak at around 750 kb/d in 2010 17 2. Crude oil, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and condensates. Chapter 17 - Reference Scenario Supply Projections 491
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
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FOREWORD World leaders have pledged
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This study was pre
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Helen Dickinson Carmen Difiglio Sim
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Tarhan Feyzioğlu John Fu Hu Gao We
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Comments and questions are welcome
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GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS ENERGY TRENDS
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Explaining China’s and India’s
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Oil Resources and Reserves 318 Oil
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16 17 Reference Scenario Demand Pro
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List of Figures Introduction 1. Sha
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3.9 Share of Energy in World Intern
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9.7 International Comparison of Fle
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13.5 Contribution of the Coastal Re
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18.4 India’s CO 2 Emissions in th
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2.2 Sectoral Shares in Final Energy
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11.6 Key Policy Assumptions in Chin
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List of Boxes Introduction 1. Model
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16.5 Kerosene Use in Rural Areas of
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World Energy Outlook Series World E
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above current levels in 2030. To ac
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Reference Scenario. In the High Gro
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Reference Scenario, primary energy
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By contrast, faster implementation
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of this increase. China is by far t
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There are large potential gains to
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India are now so big that they are
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of the two giants in international
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second trading period (2008-2012) o
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Table 1: World Population Growth (a
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high (see below). In the longer ter
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Table 3: Fossil-Fuel Price Assumpti
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$41 per tonne to $63 in 2006 (in ye
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In line with last year’s Outlook,
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equilibrium for international trade
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CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS
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standards for vehicles and new meas
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Figure 1.2: Increase in World Prima
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Global primary energy intensity, me
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Figure 1.6: Share of Transport in P
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Russia, Central Asia, Latin America
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It is certainly possible that decli
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Table 1.5: World Primary Natural Ga
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developments in clean coal technolo
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in the form of coking coal, grow st
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(Table 1.8). India and China experi
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Table 1.9: Cumulative Investment in
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policy implementation is critical:
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transition economies, because there
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15.1% in 2030, compared with 11.7%
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Table 1.12: World Primary Natural G
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Figure 1.19: Incremental Non-Fossil
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Figure 1.20: Fuel Mix in World Powe
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Table 1.14: World Primary Energy De
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The regional effect on oil imports
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in the Reference Scenario to 1 481
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The High Growth Scenario projection
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Reference Scenario Energy Demand Th
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having rebounded in the early part
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80% Figure 2.3: Fuel Mix in Power G
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SPOTLIGHT Are China and India Follo
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For both China and India, the story
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imports are projected to rise furth
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equires $956 billion of capital spe
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Table 2.4: Primary Energy Demand in
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Figure 2.9: Primary Energy Demand i
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China and India in the Global Econo
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production and exports of manufactu
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International Trade and Financial F
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total coal use in 2005, and the sec
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total stock of Chinese ODI amounted
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fear that Chinese and Indian export
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SPOTLIGHT (continued) In general, e
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Box 3.2: Modelling Economic and Ene
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Table 3.2: Fossil-Fuel Prices in th
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etween 5% and 8% in the High Growth
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Table 3.3: World Real GDP Growth in
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The results presented here should b
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Energy Security in a Global Market
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■ Adequate investment in producti
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efined products are global commodit
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Figure 4.1: Share of China and Indi
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Figure 4.3: Share of China and Indi
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Figure 4.4: Oil Export Flows from t
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Table 4.3: Net Natural Gas Imports
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Coal Coal dominates energy use in C
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Energy savings Diversification of f
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In China, oil security has emerged
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deprive the companies of profits an
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western markets. Any disruption to
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2015 and 20% higher in 2030. The ri
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Figure 4.10: Major World Oil Supply
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imports is demonstrated by the Alte
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prices to all consuming countries m
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Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions Globa
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In the past two-and-a-half decades,
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Transport contributes roughly a fif
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Box 5.1: Regional Air Quality (Cont
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Box 5.2: Which Countries Emit the M
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egion (Table 5.3 and Figure 5.10).
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Figure 5.11: Change in Carbon Inten
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Table 5.4: CO 2 Concentrations and
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illustrate the magnitude and urgenc
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Energy Demand by Sector CO 2 emissi
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Figure 5.13: Electricity Generation
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The capital costs involved in stabi
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Focus on Prospects for Clean Coal T
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Technologies involving the absorpti
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There are a number of barriers to t
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scheduled to operate in the first h
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CHAPTER 6 ENERGY POLICY RAMIFICATIO
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■ Conserving energy: Conservation
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The results of our Alternative Poli
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increasing need for oil and gas. Th
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Co-operation is a two-way street; I
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Technology Co-operation and Collabo
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continue to make an important contr
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een registered, are being validated
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PART B CHINA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
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The Political Context 1 Established
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percentage points over 2001. 3 In 2
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education. However, the government
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Capital accumulation was boosted by
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several times since the beginning o
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Yet pockets of extreme poverty rema
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year over the projection period, re
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infrastructure, housing and service
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CHAPTER 8 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY SE
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In the 1980s and 1990s, energy dema
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Industry has long been the largest
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Figure 8.3: China’s Energy Produc
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Figure 8.4: Organisation of Energy
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Box 8.2: Energy Goals in China’s
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Box 8.3: Coal-Based Alternative Fue
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projects are still the largest alte
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of these businesses. In its early s
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and retail competition, but much wo
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Access to Modern Energy China has a
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CHAPTER 9 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAND
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growth (Table 9.1). It is possible
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Table 9.3: China’s Primary Energy
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with an 89% share in 2005. By 2030,
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exported goods was only 197 Mtoe, o
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energy intensity of 9% in steel pro
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Non-Metallic Minerals The non-metal
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to 7.0% in 2005-2015 and 4.4% in 20
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Box 9.2: Prospects for Alternative
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develop their own-brand vehicles in
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standards are most stringent for he
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nearly one-fifth of the increase in
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in cities is assumed to grow steadi
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Appliance efficiency improvements w
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FGD units installed, along with the
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Table 9.8: Emissions of Major Pollu
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generate almost 1.2 billion CERs by
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CHAPTER 10 REFERENCE SCENARIO SUPPL
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Figure 10.1: China’s Oil and Gas
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Table 10.2: China’s Oil Productio
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Oil Refining China’s refining cap
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Saudi Aramco taking combined stakes
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Box 10.2: China’s Emergency Oil S
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which close to 90% are onshore (Tab
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Table 10.5: China’s Natural Gas P
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e built, because of concerns about
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coal resources lie in the provinces
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Table 10.7: China’s Coal Producti
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of 829 Mt of coal each year by the
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An outside-plan spot market has exi
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Figure 10.13: China’s Hard Coal T
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Figure 10.14: Electricity Generatio
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China is pursuing a dual objective
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Capacity Requirements In the past t
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to consumers approximately 70% of a
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8 Figure 10.17: Plant Generating Co
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undertaken because of its economic
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China designated biofuels as a prio
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could help China achieve its object
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Background and Assumptions China’
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and consumption technologies. By 20
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Reference Scenario. More than two-t
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The most striking difference concer
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The slow-down in the growth of CO 2
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power generation and improving the
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of nuclear power reaches 6% of tota
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educing industrial consumption, eit
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towards gas-based ammonia productio
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Summary of Results In the Alternati
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Table 11.8: Policy Assumptions in C
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improve and appliance ownership inc
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Box 11.2: Cost-Effectiveness of Imp
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Investment in fossil-fuel supply is
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On the other hand, higher economic
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two-thirds of incremental oil deman
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Of the main final sectors, the tran
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Higher international prices also bo
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128 bcm to 216 bcm in 2030. In orde
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generation reaches 7.4 MWh, close t
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Though higher economic growth would
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The magnitude of the region’s imp
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Table 13.1: Economic Indicators by
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Figure 13.2: Share of the Coastal R
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Figure 13.3: Provincial Energy Inte
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incremental final energy demand. Fo
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Industry Industry is today the main
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the population in Beijing having ac
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The coastal provinces, with a deman
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APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 13: CHINA COAST
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PART C INDIA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
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The Political Context India is a fe
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up from 9% in 2005 and 8.3% in 2004
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Assam are on average poorer than ma
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in manufacturing productivity was t
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Economic Challenges Continuation of
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South Asia is the least integrated
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Box 14.2: Special Economic Zones in
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Page 445 and 446: CHAPTER 15 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY S
Page 447 and 448: after China and the United States.
Page 449 and 450: Box 15.1: India's Energy Statistics
Page 451 and 452: which was created in 1984 to reduce
Page 453 and 454: ■ Electricity Regulatory Commissi
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Page 459 and 460: Table 15.3: India's Integrated Ener
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Page 463 and 464: Box 15.3: Public-Private Partnershi
Page 465 and 466: CHAPTER 16 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAN
Page 467 and 468: Most energy prices in India are con
Page 469 and 470: Energy demand in the residential se
Page 471 and 472: Iron and Steel Industry India’s i
Page 473 and 474: 80%. Past subsidies eliminated ince
Page 475 and 476: The transport sector currently cons
Page 477 and 478: Box 16.3: Upside Potential of Trans
Page 479 and 480: Figure 16.6: Residential Fuel Mix i
Page 481 and 482: Biomass use in urban households 14
Page 483 and 484: Kerosene and LPG supply 83% of the
Page 485 and 486: Other Sectors The services sector a
Page 487 and 488: from other sources - mainly industr
Page 489: Despite improvements in thermal eff
Page 494 and 495: and decline to just under 400 kb/d
Page 496 and 497: expansions of cracking units. Betwe
Page 498 and 499: For crude oil alone, India's import
Page 500 and 501: Figure 17.5: Main Oil and Gas Infra
Page 502 and 503: come from offshore non-associated g
Page 504 and 505: Figure 17.7: India's Natural Gas Ba
Page 506 and 507: 98 billion tonnes, principally in J
Page 508 and 509: Table 17.8: Coal Production in Indi
Page 510 and 511: 15 000 Figure 17.9: Coal-Mining Pro
Page 512 and 513: Figure 17.10: India's Coal Producti
Page 514 and 515: India's coal-fired power plants are
Page 516 and 517: Box 17.4: CO 2 Capture and Storage
Page 518 and 519: Box 17.5: India's Nuclear Power Gen
Page 520 and 521: 8 Figure 17.13: Electricity Generat
Page 522 and 523: India receives abundant solar radia
Page 524 and 525: in power generation alone is estima
Page 526 and 527: In 2005, revenues from electricity
Page 528 and 529: Figure 17.17: Electricity Losses by
Page 530 and 531: were shut down. Despite past proble
Page 533 and 534: CHAPTER 18 ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENA
Page 535 and 536: Key Results Energy Demand Primary e
Page 537 and 538: energy demand in the Alternative Po
Page 539 and 540: 18 Figure 18.3: Local Air Pollutant
Page 541 and 542: Box 18.1: The Impacts of Climate Ch
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Summary of Results Total electricit
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Box 18.2: Performance of India's Co
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1970s hydropower accounted for arou
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35 Figure 18.8: India's Energy Savi
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to compressed natural gas (CNG), wh
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Delhi has encountered problems rela
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Policy Scenario, it is assumed that
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Figure 18.11: Change in Investment
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tariffs in the services and industr
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Background and Assumptions There ar
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period by passenger cars, is the ma
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Box 19.1: The Vehicle Stock in the
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Oil and Gas The production profile
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Electricity Electricity generation
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in 2030 will still be low, at 2.7 t
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and rising emissions of CO 2 , NO x
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Outlook for Clean Cooking Fuel and
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focus of government policy is to ex
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The government has focused many pro
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Expanding Access to Electricity in
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stoves. According to the World Heal
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Subsidies on Kerosene and LPG, and
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Uttar Pradesh (4.4 million) and Wes
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ANNEXES
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Reference Scenario: World Energy de
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Alternative Policy Scenario: World
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Reference Scenario: China Energy de
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Alternative Policy Scenario: China
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Reference Scenario: India Energy de
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Alternative Policy Scenario: India
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Reference Scenario: OECD Energy dem
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Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
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Reference Scenario: United States E
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Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific En
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Reference Scenario: Japan Energy de
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Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ene
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Reference Scenario: European Union
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Reference Scenario: Transition econ
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Reference Scenario: Russia Energy d
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Reference Scenario: Developing coun
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Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
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Reference Scenario: Latin America E
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Reference Scenario: Middle East Ene
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Reference Scenario: Africa Energy d
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ANNEX B ABBREVIATIONS, DEFINITIONS
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Coal-bed Methane Methane found in c
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Other Renewables Includes geotherma
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international marine bunkers, excep
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Rest of Developing Asia Developing
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IAEA IEA IGCC IMF IOC IPCC IPP LDV
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ANNEX D REFERENCES Introduction Int
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Stevens, C. and J. Kennan (2006), H
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— (2004), World Energy Outlook 20
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International Energy Agency (IEA, 2
Page 657 and 658:
Chew Chong Siang (2006), Current St
Page 659 and 660:
Williams, R. O., A. McKane et al. (
Page 661 and 662:
Garg, A. et al. (2006), “The sect
Page 663 and 664:
Malti, G. (2007), Carbon Capture an
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Pachauri, S. (2007), An Energy Anal
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