World Energy Outlook 2007

Natural Gas
The share of natural gas in primary energy use is expected to grow over the
projection period in China and India in all scenarios, though it remains
relatively low by 2030 (Figure 4.5). Both countries have only modest proven
reserves of gas and the potential for raising production substantially is limited.
As a result, in the absence of large discoveries, they will become increasingly
reliant on imports. For now, China and India import only small volumes of
gas, entirely in the form of LNG. India started importing LNG in 2004 and
China in 2006. Volumes are set to grow substantially, especially in the second
half of the projection period. In the High Growth Scenario, imports as a share
of total gas consumption reach as much as 65% in 2030 in China and 68% in
India (Table 4.3). Nonetheless, the share of imported gas in both countries’
total primary energy mix remains small in 2030, regardless of the scenario.
4
10%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
Figure 4.5: Share of Natural Gas in Total Primary Energy Demand
in China and India
2005 2030
Reference
Scenario
China
2030
Alternative
Policy
Scenario
2030
High
Growth
Scenario
2005 2030
Reference
Scenario
India
2030
Alternative
Policy
Scenario
2030
High
Growth
Scenario
Indigenous production
Imports
Although their current import needs are small in volume terms, the importance
of China and India in global gas trade will increase – particularly towards
the end of the Outlook period. In the High Growth Scenario, their combined
share of world inter-regional trade reaches 29% in 2030 – 11 percentage
points more than in the Reference Scenario and up from less than 2% in 2005
(Figure 4.6). China accounts for most of the increase in all three scenarios.
Chapter 4 - The World’s Energy Security 171