World Energy Outlook 2007

Table 9.8: Emissions of Major Pollutants in the Reference Scenario (Mt)
1990 2005 2015 2030
NO x
7 15 19 21
PM 2.5
12 14 12 9
SO 2
19 26 31 30
Energy-Related CO 2
Emissions
In the Reference Scenario, China’s energy-related carbon-dioxide emissions are
expected to exceed those of the United States in 2007, making it the world’s
largest emitter (see Box 5.2 in Chapter 5). Yet per-capita emissions, at
3.9 tonnes of CO 2
in 2005, are only 35% of those of the OECD. Greenhousegas
emissions are receiving increasing attention from the Chinese government
which, until recently, had been mainly preoccupied with local environmental
pollution. In June 2007, the Chinese government published China’s National
Climate Change Programme.
From 1990 to 2005, China’s CO 2
emissions grew strongly at an average annual
rate of 5.6%, driven by the country’s rapid economic expansion. We project
emissions to grow by 5.4% annually to 2015 and 3.3% over the period 2005-
2030, reaching 11.4 billion tonnes and confirming China’s position as the
leading emitter. By 2015, China’s emissions reach a level 35% higher than that
of the United States; in 2030, they are 66% higher. Nonetheless, China’s percapita
emissions do not reach even current OECD levels by the end of the
projection period (Table 9.9). China accounts for 27% of global emissions in
2030, up from 19% in 2005.
China’s carbon intensity is expected to fall by half over the Outlook period, as the
structure of the economy changes in favour of less energy-intensive activities and
9
Table 9.9: China’s Energy-Related CO 2
Emission Indicators in
the Reference Scenario (tonnes of CO 2
)
2005 2015 2030
Per capita 3.9 6.2 7.9
Per thousand dollars of GDP* 2.2 1.8 1.2
Per toe of primary energy 2.9 3.0 3.0
* In year-2006 dollars and market exchange rates.
Chapter 9 - Reference Scenario Demand Projections 313