World Energy Outlook 2007

CHAPTER 9
REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAND PROJECTIONS
HIGHLIGHTS
China’s primary energy demand is projected to climb from 1 742 Mtoe in
2005 to 3 819 Mtoe in 2030 in the Reference Scenario. China becomes the
world’s largest energy consumer after 2010, overtaking the United States.
China’s energy demand grows strongly, at an average rate of 6.6% per year
through to 2010, driven, particularly, by heavy industry. In the longer term,
demand slows, as the economy matures, the structure of output shifts towards
less energy-intensive activities and more energy-efficient technologies are
introduced. Growth over the whole projection period averages 3.2% per year.
Energy used to produce goods for export – equipment, textiles and chemicals –
accounts for as much as one-quarter of Chinese energy demand. This share has
increased since 2001, as exports have surged. The trend reverses in the medium
term, as an increasing amount of fuel goes towards meeting domestic demand
for such energy services as personal mobility and heating.
Successful implementation of policies aimed at shifting the structure of the
economy towards lighter industries and improving energy efficiency slows the
pace of industrial energy use after 2015. The fuel mix in industrial energy
consumption changes radically, shifting from coal to electricity. Oil demand
for transport almost quadruples over 2005-2030, making up more than
two-thirds of incremental Chinese oil demand. The vehicle fleet grows by some
230 million between 2006 and 2030, to reach almost 270 million. Fuel
economy regulations, adopted in 2006, nonetheless temper growth in oil
demand.
China is experiencing an unprecedented construction boom, with 2 billion m 2
of new building space added every year. Per-capita residential and commercial
energy consumption grows by nearly 40% by 2030. Rising income and
urbanisation underpin strong growth in housing and use of appliances. On
average, 14 million people migrate to cities each year, driving up demand for
energy for space heating and cooling. Electricity and natural gas are expected
steadily to replace biomass and coal in the residential sector.
The projected rise in energy demand has major implications for the local and
global environment. China’s SO 2
emissions are projected to increase from
26 Mt in 2005 to 31 Mt in 2015, before levelling off to 30 Mt by 2030. NO x
emissions rise from 15 Mt in 2005 to 21 Mt in 2030. China’s energy-related
CO 2
emissions will exceed those of the United States in 2007, making it
the world’s largest emitter. They reach 11.4 Gt in 2030. However, China’s
per-capita emissions remain much lower than those of the United States in
2030, not even reaching current average OECD levels.
Chapter 9 - Reference Scenario Demand Projections 283