World Energy Outlook 2007

In the High Growth Scenario all households in India have access to electricity
in 2030 (see Chapter 20).
Higher incomes accelerate switching from biomass to LPG in rural and urban
areas and, to a lesser extent, to natural gas in towns and cities. The share of
biomass in residential energy demand declines from 79% in 2005 to 53% in the
High Growth Scenario, six percentage points less than in the Reference Scenario.
Most of the reduction in biomass consumption occurs in rural households,
but consumption of LPG rises almost equally in both areas (Figure 19.8).
Consumption of LPG grows by 5.4% per year on average and electricity demand
grows by 7.6% per year over the Outlook period. Consumption of kerosene
in 2030 is 10% lower in the High Growth Scenario, compared to the Reference
Scenario, its use declining in both rural and urban areas. In urban areas,
households switch mainly to LPG for cooking while, with expanded access to
electricity, rural households rely less on kerosene for lighting.
12
Figure 19.8: Change in India’s Residential Energy Demand in the High
Growth Scenario Relative to the Reference Scenario in 2030
8
4
0
Mtoe
–4
–8
–12
–16
–20
LPG Kerosene Gas Electricity Biomass
Rural
Urban
Note: Coal and renewables other than biomass are not shown as the change is negligible.
Implications for Policy
Higher economic growth would be a great benefit for India, bringing higher
per-capita incomes and more funds for infrastructure investment. Access to
modern energy, for example, is expected to improve much faster in the High
Growth Scenario, improving the conditions of life for millions of people. On
the other hand, higher economic growth would result in higher import bills
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Chapter 19 – High Growth Scenario Projections 571