World Energy Outlook 2007

It is certainly possible that decline rates will increase in the coming years, as the
average age of the world’s existing super-giant and giant fields increases and it
becomes harder to maintain production levels. Given the very low short-term
price elasticities of demand and supply and the modest 3 mb/d of spare
capacity available today, any shortfall in net capacity growth could result in a
sharp escalation in prices. A small increase in the annual rate of growth of
global oil demand projected in the Reference Scenario would have a similar
effect (see the results of the High Growth Scenario below). Under-investment
in the downstream sector would add to the upward pressures on prices.
1
Natural Gas
Demand for natural gas grows by 2.1% per year in the Reference Scenario,
from 2 854 billion cubic metres in 2005 to 4 779 bcm in 2030 (Table 1.4).
As with oil, gas demand increases quickest in developing countries. The biggest
regional increase in absolute terms occurs in the Middle East, where gas
resources are extensive (Figure 1.8). North America and Europe nonetheless
remain the leading gas consumers in 2030, accounting for more than one-third
of world consumption, compared with just under half today.
Table 1.4: World Primary Natural Gas Demand in the Reference Scenario
(billion cubic metres)
1980 2000 2005 2015 2030 2005-
2030*
OECD 959 1 409 1 465 1 726 2 001 1.3%
North America 659 799 765 887 994 1.1%
Europe 265 477 550 639 771 1.4%
Pacific 35 133 149 201 237 1.9%
Transition economies 439 601 663 789 914 1.3%
Russia n.a. 395 431 516 586 1.2%
Developing countries 123 528 727 1 174 1 863 3.8%
China 14 28 51 131 238 6.4%
India 1 25 35 58 112 4.8%
Other Asia 22 131 177 262 360 2.9%
Middle East 36 182 261 394 639 3.6%
Africa 14 62 85 136 211 3.7%
Latin America 36 100 118 193 302 3.8%
World 1 521 2 539 2 854 3 689 4 779 2.1%
European Union n.a. 482 541 621 744 1.3%
* Average annual rate of growth.
Chapter 1 - Global Energy Trends 85