World Energy Outlook 2007

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Figure 1.18: Coal Demand in the Reference and Alternative Policy Scenarios OECD North America OECD Europe OECD Pacific China India Rest of the world 0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 000 million tonnes of coal equivalent 2005 2030 Reference Scenario 2030 Alternative Policy Scenario decline in domestic demand as high domestic production costs cause export demand to fall more steeply. Globally, coal trade grows markedly more slowly, such that by 2030, exports are about 48% lower than in the Reference Scenario. Non-Fossil Energy Sources Demand for energy from all non-fossil fuel primary sources combined is 17% higher in 2030 than in the Reference Scenario (Figure 1.19). Nuclear power accounts for 42% of the additional demand for non-fossil fuel energy, hydropower for 9%, biomass for 23% and other renewables for 26%. Nuclear energy grows over the projection period more than twice as fast as in the Reference Scenario, and is 27% higher in 2030. The largest increases in net capacity are in OECD Europe (36 GW), where the implementation of policies to phase out nuclear energy is assumed to be delayed, in China (24 GW) and the United States (16 GW). Global consumption of biomass is 7.6% higher in the Alternative Policy Scenario in 2030 than in the Reference Scenario. This results from several factors. Switching away from traditional biomass for cooking and heating in developing countries and, to a lesser extent, improvements in efficiency in industrial processes, drive demand down. But these changes are outweighed by the increased use of biomass in combined heat and power production, in 104 World Energy Outlook 2007 - GLOBAL ENERGY PROSPECTS: IMPACT OF DEVELOPMENTS IN CHINA & INDIA
Figure 1.19: Incremental Non-Fossil Energy Demand in the Reference and Alternative Policy Scenarios 600 500 122 Mtoe 1 400 Mtoe 300 200 136 Mtoe 226 Mtoe 48 Mtoe 100 0 Biomass Other renewables Nuclear Hydro Reference Scenario Additional demand in the Alternative Policy Scenario electricity-only power plants and in liquid biofuels for transport. Most of the increase in biofuels production over and above the Reference Scenario occurs in Europe and the United States. Electricity Use and Generation The policies on energy efficiency and conservation taken into consideration in the Alternative Policy Scenario reduce global electricity consumption by 12% in 2030 vis-à-vis the Reference Scenario. More efficient appliances in the residential and services sectors account for most of these savings and more efficient motors in industry for most of the rest. Electricity intensity – consumption per unit of GDP – falls much faster over 2005-2030 as a result: by 1.7% per year, compared with 1.2% in the Reference Scenario. Lower electricity demand and measures to boost the thermal efficiency of power stations reduce demand for fossil fuels as inputs to generation. As a result of these measures and other policies to boost non-fossil fuels and technologies, the fuel mix in power generation changes markedly (Figure 1.20). The share of coal in 2030 drops most relative to the Reference Scenario, from 45% to 34%. The absolute amount of coal burned in power stations in 2030 is around two-thirds that in the Reference Scenario. The share of gas in 2030 also falls, from 23% to 21%. In contrast, the shares of nuclear power and renewables increase significantly. Energy Investment The policies and measures analysed in the Alternative Policy Scenario lead to a major shift in the pattern of energy investment. Consumers – households and Chapter 1 - Global Energy Trends 105
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
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FOREWORD World leaders have pledged
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This study was pre
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Helen Dickinson Carmen Difiglio Sim
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Tarhan Feyzioğlu John Fu Hu Gao We
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Comments and questions are welcome
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GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS ENERGY TRENDS
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Explaining China’s and India’s
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Oil Resources and Reserves 318 Oil
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16 17 Reference Scenario Demand Pro
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List of Figures Introduction 1. Sha
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3.9 Share of Energy in World Intern
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9.7 International Comparison of Fle
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13.5 Contribution of the Coastal Re
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18.4 India’s CO 2 Emissions in th
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2.2 Sectoral Shares in Final Energy
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11.6 Key Policy Assumptions in Chin
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List of Boxes Introduction 1. Model
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16.5 Kerosene Use in Rural Areas of
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World Energy Outlook Series World E
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above current levels in 2030. To ac
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Reference Scenario. In the High Gro
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Reference Scenario, primary energy
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By contrast, faster implementation
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of this increase. China is by far t
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There are large potential gains to
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Page 58 and 59: of the two giants in international
Page 60 and 61: second trading period (2008-2012) o
Page 62 and 63: Table 1: World Population Growth (a
Page 64 and 65: high (see below). In the longer ter
Page 66 and 67: Table 3: Fossil-Fuel Price Assumpti
Page 68 and 69: $41 per tonne to $63 in 2006 (in ye
Page 70 and 71: In line with last year’s Outlook,
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Page 75 and 76: CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS
Page 77 and 78: standards for vehicles and new meas
Page 79 and 80: Figure 1.2: Increase in World Prima
Page 81 and 82: Global primary energy intensity, me
Page 83 and 84: Figure 1.6: Share of Transport in P
Page 85 and 86: Russia, Central Asia, Latin America
Page 87 and 88: It is certainly possible that decli
Page 89 and 90: Table 1.5: World Primary Natural Ga
Page 91 and 92: developments in clean coal technolo
Page 93 and 94: in the form of coking coal, grow st
Page 95 and 96: (Table 1.8). India and China experi
Page 97 and 98: Table 1.9: Cumulative Investment in
Page 99 and 100: policy implementation is critical:
Page 101 and 102: transition economies, because there
Page 103 and 104: 15.1% in 2030, compared with 11.7%
Page 105: Table 1.12: World Primary Natural G
Page 109 and 110: Figure 1.20: Fuel Mix in World Powe
Page 111 and 112: Table 1.14: World Primary Energy De
Page 113 and 114: The regional effect on oil imports
Page 115 and 116: in the Reference Scenario to 1 481
Page 117: The High Growth Scenario projection
Page 120 and 121: Reference Scenario Energy Demand Th
Page 122 and 123: having rebounded in the early part
Page 124 and 125: 80% Figure 2.3: Fuel Mix in Power G
Page 126 and 127: SPOTLIGHT Are China and India Follo
Page 128 and 129: For both China and India, the story
Page 130 and 131: imports are projected to rise furth
Page 132 and 133: equires $956 billion of capital spe
Page 134 and 135: Table 2.4: Primary Energy Demand in
Page 136 and 137: Figure 2.9: Primary Energy Demand i
Page 138 and 139: China and India in the Global Econo
Page 140 and 141: production and exports of manufactu
Page 142 and 143: International Trade and Financial F
Page 144 and 145: total coal use in 2005, and the sec
Page 146 and 147: total stock of Chinese ODI amounted
Page 148 and 149: fear that Chinese and Indian export
Page 150 and 151: SPOTLIGHT (continued) In general, e
Page 152 and 153: Box 3.2: Modelling Economic and Ene
Page 154 and 155: Table 3.2: Fossil-Fuel Prices in th
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etween 5% and 8% in the High Growth
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Table 3.3: World Real GDP Growth in
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The results presented here should b
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Energy Security in a Global Market
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■ Adequate investment in producti
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efined products are global commodit
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Figure 4.1: Share of China and Indi
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Figure 4.3: Share of China and Indi
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Figure 4.4: Oil Export Flows from t
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Table 4.3: Net Natural Gas Imports
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Coal Coal dominates energy use in C
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Energy savings Diversification of f
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In China, oil security has emerged
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deprive the companies of profits an
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western markets. Any disruption to
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2015 and 20% higher in 2030. The ri
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Figure 4.10: Major World Oil Supply
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imports is demonstrated by the Alte
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prices to all consuming countries m
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Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions Globa
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In the past two-and-a-half decades,
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Transport contributes roughly a fif
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Box 5.1: Regional Air Quality (Cont
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Box 5.2: Which Countries Emit the M
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egion (Table 5.3 and Figure 5.10).
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Figure 5.11: Change in Carbon Inten
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Table 5.4: CO 2 Concentrations and
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illustrate the magnitude and urgenc
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Energy Demand by Sector CO 2 emissi
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Figure 5.13: Electricity Generation
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The capital costs involved in stabi
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Focus on Prospects for Clean Coal T
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Technologies involving the absorpti
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There are a number of barriers to t
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scheduled to operate in the first h
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CHAPTER 6 ENERGY POLICY RAMIFICATIO
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■ Conserving energy: Conservation
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The results of our Alternative Poli
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increasing need for oil and gas. Th
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Co-operation is a two-way street; I
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Technology Co-operation and Collabo
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continue to make an important contr
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een registered, are being validated
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PART B CHINA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
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The Political Context 1 Established
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percentage points over 2001. 3 In 2
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education. However, the government
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Capital accumulation was boosted by
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several times since the beginning o
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Yet pockets of extreme poverty rema
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year over the projection period, re
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infrastructure, housing and service
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CHAPTER 8 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY SE
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In the 1980s and 1990s, energy dema
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Industry has long been the largest
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Figure 8.3: China’s Energy Produc
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Figure 8.4: Organisation of Energy
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Box 8.2: Energy Goals in China’s
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Box 8.3: Coal-Based Alternative Fue
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projects are still the largest alte
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of these businesses. In its early s
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and retail competition, but much wo
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Access to Modern Energy China has a
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CHAPTER 9 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAND
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growth (Table 9.1). It is possible
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Table 9.3: China’s Primary Energy
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with an 89% share in 2005. By 2030,
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exported goods was only 197 Mtoe, o
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energy intensity of 9% in steel pro
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Non-Metallic Minerals The non-metal
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to 7.0% in 2005-2015 and 4.4% in 20
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Box 9.2: Prospects for Alternative
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develop their own-brand vehicles in
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standards are most stringent for he
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nearly one-fifth of the increase in
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in cities is assumed to grow steadi
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Appliance efficiency improvements w
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FGD units installed, along with the
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Table 9.8: Emissions of Major Pollu
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generate almost 1.2 billion CERs by
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CHAPTER 10 REFERENCE SCENARIO SUPPL
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Figure 10.1: China’s Oil and Gas
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Table 10.2: China’s Oil Productio
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Oil Refining China’s refining cap
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Saudi Aramco taking combined stakes
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Box 10.2: China’s Emergency Oil S
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which close to 90% are onshore (Tab
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Table 10.5: China’s Natural Gas P
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e built, because of concerns about
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coal resources lie in the provinces
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Table 10.7: China’s Coal Producti
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of 829 Mt of coal each year by the
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An outside-plan spot market has exi
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Figure 10.13: China’s Hard Coal T
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Figure 10.14: Electricity Generatio
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China is pursuing a dual objective
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Capacity Requirements In the past t
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to consumers approximately 70% of a
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8 Figure 10.17: Plant Generating Co
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undertaken because of its economic
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China designated biofuels as a prio
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could help China achieve its object
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Background and Assumptions China’
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and consumption technologies. By 20
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Reference Scenario. More than two-t
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The most striking difference concer
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The slow-down in the growth of CO 2
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power generation and improving the
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of nuclear power reaches 6% of tota
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educing industrial consumption, eit
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towards gas-based ammonia productio
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Summary of Results In the Alternati
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Table 11.8: Policy Assumptions in C
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improve and appliance ownership inc
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Box 11.2: Cost-Effectiveness of Imp
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Investment in fossil-fuel supply is
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On the other hand, higher economic
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two-thirds of incremental oil deman
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Of the main final sectors, the tran
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Higher international prices also bo
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128 bcm to 216 bcm in 2030. In orde
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generation reaches 7.4 MWh, close t
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Though higher economic growth would
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The magnitude of the region’s imp
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Table 13.1: Economic Indicators by
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Figure 13.2: Share of the Coastal R
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Figure 13.3: Provincial Energy Inte
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incremental final energy demand. Fo
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Industry Industry is today the main
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the population in Beijing having ac
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The coastal provinces, with a deman
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APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 13: CHINA COAST
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PART C INDIA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
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The Political Context India is a fe
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up from 9% in 2005 and 8.3% in 2004
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Assam are on average poorer than ma
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in manufacturing productivity was t
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Economic Challenges Continuation of
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South Asia is the least integrated
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Box 14.2: Special Economic Zones in
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ecently extended into petrochemical
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CHAPTER 15 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY S
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after China and the United States.
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Box 15.1: India's Energy Statistics
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which was created in 1984 to reduce
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■ Electricity Regulatory Commissi
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and production, and in liquefied na
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(because of the captive restriction
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Table 15.3: India's Integrated Ener
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of Finance's Economic Survey 2006-2
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Box 15.3: Public-Private Partnershi
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CHAPTER 16 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAN
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Most energy prices in India are con
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Energy demand in the residential se
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Iron and Steel Industry India’s i
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80%. Past subsidies eliminated ince
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The transport sector currently cons
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Box 16.3: Upside Potential of Trans
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Figure 16.6: Residential Fuel Mix i
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Biomass use in urban households 14
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Kerosene and LPG supply 83% of the
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Other Sectors The services sector a
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from other sources - mainly industr
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Despite improvements in thermal eff
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Oil Supply Resources and Reserves I
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and decline to just under 400 kb/d
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expansions of cracking units. Betwe
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For crude oil alone, India's import
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Figure 17.5: Main Oil and Gas Infra
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come from offshore non-associated g
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Figure 17.7: India's Natural Gas Ba
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98 billion tonnes, principally in J
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Table 17.8: Coal Production in Indi
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15 000 Figure 17.9: Coal-Mining Pro
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Figure 17.10: India's Coal Producti
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India's coal-fired power plants are
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Box 17.4: CO 2 Capture and Storage
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Box 17.5: India's Nuclear Power Gen
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8 Figure 17.13: Electricity Generat
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India receives abundant solar radia
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in power generation alone is estima
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In 2005, revenues from electricity
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Figure 17.17: Electricity Losses by
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were shut down. Despite past proble
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CHAPTER 18 ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENA
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Key Results Energy Demand Primary e
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energy demand in the Alternative Po
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18 Figure 18.3: Local Air Pollutant
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Box 18.1: The Impacts of Climate Ch
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Summary of Results Total electricit
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Box 18.2: Performance of India's Co
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1970s hydropower accounted for arou
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35 Figure 18.8: India's Energy Savi
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to compressed natural gas (CNG), wh
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Delhi has encountered problems rela
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Policy Scenario, it is assumed that
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Figure 18.11: Change in Investment
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tariffs in the services and industr
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Background and Assumptions There ar
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period by passenger cars, is the ma
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Box 19.1: The Vehicle Stock in the
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Oil and Gas The production profile
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Electricity Electricity generation
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in 2030 will still be low, at 2.7 t
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and rising emissions of CO 2 , NO x
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Outlook for Clean Cooking Fuel and
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focus of government policy is to ex
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The government has focused many pro
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Expanding Access to Electricity in
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stoves. According to the World Heal
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Subsidies on Kerosene and LPG, and
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Uttar Pradesh (4.4 million) and Wes
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ANNEXES
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Reference Scenario: World Energy de
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Alternative Policy Scenario: World
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Reference Scenario: China Energy de
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Alternative Policy Scenario: China
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Reference Scenario: India Energy de
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Alternative Policy Scenario: India
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Reference Scenario: OECD Energy dem
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Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
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Reference Scenario: United States E
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Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific En
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Reference Scenario: Japan Energy de
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Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ene
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Reference Scenario: European Union
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Reference Scenario: Transition econ
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Reference Scenario: Russia Energy d
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Reference Scenario: Developing coun
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Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
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Reference Scenario: Latin America E
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Reference Scenario: Middle East Ene
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Reference Scenario: Africa Energy d
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ANNEX B ABBREVIATIONS, DEFINITIONS
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Coal-bed Methane Methane found in c
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Other Renewables Includes geotherma
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international marine bunkers, excep
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Rest of Developing Asia Developing
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IAEA IEA IGCC IMF IOC IPCC IPP LDV
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ANNEX D REFERENCES Introduction Int
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Stevens, C. and J. Kennan (2006), H
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— (2004), World Energy Outlook 20
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International Energy Agency (IEA, 2
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Chew Chong Siang (2006), Current St
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Williams, R. O., A. McKane et al. (
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Garg, A. et al. (2006), “The sect
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Malti, G. (2007), Carbon Capture an
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Pachauri, S. (2007), An Energy Anal
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