World Energy Outlook 2007

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Energy Demand by Sector CO 2 emissions from direct combustion of fossil fuels in end uses and other transformation other than power generation are reduced to 16.2 Gt in 2030 – 3.3 Gt, or 17%, lower than in the Alternative Policy Scenario. Energy savings by sector in 2030, over and above those achieved in the Alternative Policy Scenario, assume that best-practice commercial technologies available are quickly and widely deployed where the potential costs less than $50 per tonne of CO 2 (IPCC, 2007). Taking into account the carbon content of crude oil, this is equivalent to an increase in oil prices of $18 per barrel. The use of fossil fuels in industry is reduced by 18% in 2030 compared with the Alternative Policy Scenario, yielding 1.3 Gt of CO 2 savings. The biggest savings are in the iron and steel and cement industries. Widespread adoption of bestpractice technology, which is already commercial, or will become so, would allow this potential to be harvested (IEA, 2007a). In practice, financial incentives or regulations would be required to ensure that less efficient equipment is retired early. Electricity savings in less energy-intensive industries and improved motor efficiency are already fully exploited in the Alternative Policy Scenario. Therefore, we do not assume any additional electricity savings in the industrial sector above those in the Alternative Policy Scenario. Equipping some refineries, ammonia, cement and iron and steel plants with CO 2 capture and storage (CCS) brings about an additional reduction of 0.5 Gt. Strong policies, such as regulations or subsidies, would be required for this to happen. In the residential and services sector there is only limited remaining potential to reduce coal, oil and natural gas direct use beyond the level achieved in the Alternative Policy Scenario. Additional fossil-fuel savings amount to 7%, yielding savings of 0.3 Gt of CO 2 . Increased electricity savings are also 8% more than in the Alternative Policy Scenario. Indirectly avoided CO 2 emissions, through the reduced need to generate power, amount to 0.7 Gt. Widespread use of minimum efficiency standards in a wide range of appliances and equipments could help capture this potential. Additional savings are achieved in the transport sector, mainly through improved efficiency of light-duty vehicles, increased use of biofuels and more efficient aircraft. Together, these outcomes would cut global oil use in 2030 by more than 10 mb/d, saving 1.4 Gt of CO 2 . The fuel efficiency of light-duty vehicles in 2030 is 14% better than in the Alternative Policy Scenario. To achieve this, the average car sold in 2030 would need to consume 60% less fuel than the average car sold in 2005. With current technologies, only plug-in hybrids are capable of this. In addition, such cars reduce the need for oil-based fuels even more, because they use electricity from the grid. As power generation becomes less carbon-intensive, emissions are reduced by even more than energy 210 World Energy Outlook 2007 - GLOBAL ENERGY PROSPECTS: IMPACT OF DEVELOPMENTS IN CHINA & INDIA
demand. Improvements of up to 50% in the efficiency of gasoline and diesel internal combustion engines, and even of full-hybrid vehicles, would also be needed. Policies to promote hybrid technology could include vehicle-purchase subsidies, regulatory standards and higher taxes on the least efficient vehicles. Biofuels use in 2030 is twice as big as in the Alternative Policy Scenario, at 330 Mtoe. Given the constraints on land, water and biomass availability, this level of production of biofuels could be achieved only through the large-scale introduction of second-generation biofuels, based mainly on ligno-cellulosic feedstock (IEA, 2006a). Energy use in non-power sector transformation – including refineries and oil and gas extraction – is reduced by 16% over and above the Alternative Policy Scenario, thanks to the reduced need to supply hydrocarbons to end users. 5 Power Generation To reach the overall 23 Gt target for 2030, emissions from the power sector would need to be limited to 6.3 Gt, compared with 13.7 Gt in the Alternative Policy Scenario and 18.7 Gt in the Reference Scenario. 11 Given the long lead times in bringing new capacity on line in the power sector and the current policy framework, we assume that the installed power generating capacity follows the Alternative Policy Scenario trend until 2012. Even if no new power plants were built after 2012 and taking retirements into account, emissions in 2030 would still be around 10 Gt. This is well in excess of the level compatible with the 450 ppm of CO 2 -equivalent stabilisation target. Therefore, some of the power plants in operation in 2012 would need to be retired before the end of their economic lifetime and any new capacity added would need to be zerocarbon. We calculate that some 15% of the fossil-fuel generating capacity would need to be retired early between 2012 and 2030 on the assumption that all new generating capacity is either nuclear power, renewables-based or, after 2015, fossil-based with CO 2 capture and storage (Figure 5.13). If retrofitting of fossil-based generation with CCS was considered, the need for early retirements would be lower (CCS is discussed later in this chapter). Electricity demand in the 450 Stabilisation Case grows from 18 200 TWh in 2005 to 29 300 TWh in 2030, by 1.9% per year. Electricity generated by the power plants in use in 2012 declines from 22 930 TWh in 2012 to some 15 100 TWh in 2030. The balance comes from zero- or low-carbon power plants – renewables, and nuclear power. After 2015 we assume the gradual introduction of coal- and gas-fired power plants equipped with CCS (Figure 5.14). As there is an infinite number of combinations of capacity 11. Implementation of energy-efficiency measures in end-use sectors at a higher cost than assumed in this case ($50 per tonne of CO 2 ) would increase energy and CO 2 -emissions savings in final consumption, requiring less reductions in the power sector. Chapter 5 - Global Environmental Repercussions 211
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
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FOREWORD World leaders have pledged
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This study was pre
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Helen Dickinson Carmen Difiglio Sim
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Tarhan Feyzioğlu John Fu Hu Gao We
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Comments and questions are welcome
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GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS ENERGY TRENDS
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Explaining China’s and India’s
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Oil Resources and Reserves 318 Oil
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16 17 Reference Scenario Demand Pro
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List of Figures Introduction 1. Sha
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3.9 Share of Energy in World Intern
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9.7 International Comparison of Fle
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13.5 Contribution of the Coastal Re
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18.4 India’s CO 2 Emissions in th
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2.2 Sectoral Shares in Final Energy
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11.6 Key Policy Assumptions in Chin
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List of Boxes Introduction 1. Model
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16.5 Kerosene Use in Rural Areas of
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World Energy Outlook Series World E
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above current levels in 2030. To ac
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Reference Scenario. In the High Gro
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Reference Scenario, primary energy
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By contrast, faster implementation
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of this increase. China is by far t
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There are large potential gains to
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India are now so big that they are
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of the two giants in international
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second trading period (2008-2012) o
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Table 1: World Population Growth (a
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high (see below). In the longer ter
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Table 3: Fossil-Fuel Price Assumpti
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$41 per tonne to $63 in 2006 (in ye
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In line with last year’s Outlook,
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equilibrium for international trade
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CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS
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standards for vehicles and new meas
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Figure 1.2: Increase in World Prima
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Global primary energy intensity, me
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Figure 1.6: Share of Transport in P
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Russia, Central Asia, Latin America
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It is certainly possible that decli
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Table 1.5: World Primary Natural Ga
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developments in clean coal technolo
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in the form of coking coal, grow st
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(Table 1.8). India and China experi
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Table 1.9: Cumulative Investment in
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policy implementation is critical:
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transition economies, because there
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15.1% in 2030, compared with 11.7%
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Table 1.12: World Primary Natural G
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Figure 1.19: Incremental Non-Fossil
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Figure 1.20: Fuel Mix in World Powe
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Table 1.14: World Primary Energy De
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The regional effect on oil imports
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in the Reference Scenario to 1 481
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The High Growth Scenario projection
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Reference Scenario Energy Demand Th
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having rebounded in the early part
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80% Figure 2.3: Fuel Mix in Power G
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SPOTLIGHT Are China and India Follo
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For both China and India, the story
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imports are projected to rise furth
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equires $956 billion of capital spe
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Table 2.4: Primary Energy Demand in
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Figure 2.9: Primary Energy Demand i
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China and India in the Global Econo
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production and exports of manufactu
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International Trade and Financial F
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total coal use in 2005, and the sec
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total stock of Chinese ODI amounted
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fear that Chinese and Indian export
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SPOTLIGHT (continued) In general, e
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Box 3.2: Modelling Economic and Ene
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Table 3.2: Fossil-Fuel Prices in th
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etween 5% and 8% in the High Growth
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Table 3.3: World Real GDP Growth in
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The results presented here should b
Page 162 and 163: Energy Security in a Global Market
Page 164 and 165: ■ Adequate investment in producti
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Page 168 and 169: Figure 4.1: Share of China and Indi
Page 170 and 171: Figure 4.3: Share of China and Indi
Page 172 and 173: Figure 4.4: Oil Export Flows from t
Page 174 and 175: Table 4.3: Net Natural Gas Imports
Page 176 and 177: Coal Coal dominates energy use in C
Page 178 and 179: Energy savings Diversification of f
Page 180 and 181: In China, oil security has emerged
Page 182 and 183: deprive the companies of profits an
Page 184 and 185: western markets. Any disruption to
Page 186 and 187: 2015 and 20% higher in 2030. The ri
Page 188 and 189: Figure 4.10: Major World Oil Supply
Page 190 and 191: imports is demonstrated by the Alte
Page 192 and 193: prices to all consuming countries m
Page 194 and 195: Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions Globa
Page 196 and 197: In the past two-and-a-half decades,
Page 198 and 199: Transport contributes roughly a fif
Page 200 and 201: Box 5.1: Regional Air Quality (Cont
Page 202 and 203: Box 5.2: Which Countries Emit the M
Page 204 and 205: egion (Table 5.3 and Figure 5.10).
Page 206 and 207: Figure 5.11: Change in Carbon Inten
Page 208 and 209: Table 5.4: CO 2 Concentrations and
Page 210 and 211: illustrate the magnitude and urgenc
Page 214 and 215: Figure 5.13: Electricity Generation
Page 216 and 217: The capital costs involved in stabi
Page 218 and 219: Focus on Prospects for Clean Coal T
Page 220 and 221: Technologies involving the absorpti
Page 222 and 223: There are a number of barriers to t
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Page 227 and 228: CHAPTER 6 ENERGY POLICY RAMIFICATIO
Page 229 and 230: ■ Conserving energy: Conservation
Page 231 and 232: The results of our Alternative Poli
Page 233 and 234: increasing need for oil and gas. Th
Page 235 and 236: Co-operation is a two-way street; I
Page 237 and 238: Technology Co-operation and Collabo
Page 239 and 240: continue to make an important contr
Page 241 and 242: een registered, are being validated
Page 243: PART B CHINA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
Page 246 and 247: The Political Context 1 Established
Page 248 and 249: percentage points over 2001. 3 In 2
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Page 252 and 253: Capital accumulation was boosted by
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Page 256 and 257: Yet pockets of extreme poverty rema
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CHAPTER 8 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY SE
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In the 1980s and 1990s, energy dema
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Industry has long been the largest
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Figure 8.3: China’s Energy Produc
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Figure 8.4: Organisation of Energy
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Box 8.2: Energy Goals in China’s
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Box 8.3: Coal-Based Alternative Fue
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projects are still the largest alte
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of these businesses. In its early s
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and retail competition, but much wo
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Access to Modern Energy China has a
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CHAPTER 9 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAND
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growth (Table 9.1). It is possible
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Table 9.3: China’s Primary Energy
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with an 89% share in 2005. By 2030,
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exported goods was only 197 Mtoe, o
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energy intensity of 9% in steel pro
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Non-Metallic Minerals The non-metal
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to 7.0% in 2005-2015 and 4.4% in 20
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Box 9.2: Prospects for Alternative
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develop their own-brand vehicles in
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standards are most stringent for he
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nearly one-fifth of the increase in
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in cities is assumed to grow steadi
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Appliance efficiency improvements w
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FGD units installed, along with the
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Table 9.8: Emissions of Major Pollu
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generate almost 1.2 billion CERs by
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CHAPTER 10 REFERENCE SCENARIO SUPPL
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Figure 10.1: China’s Oil and Gas
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Table 10.2: China’s Oil Productio
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Oil Refining China’s refining cap
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Saudi Aramco taking combined stakes
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Box 10.2: China’s Emergency Oil S
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which close to 90% are onshore (Tab
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Table 10.5: China’s Natural Gas P
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e built, because of concerns about
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coal resources lie in the provinces
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Table 10.7: China’s Coal Producti
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of 829 Mt of coal each year by the
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An outside-plan spot market has exi
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Figure 10.13: China’s Hard Coal T
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Figure 10.14: Electricity Generatio
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China is pursuing a dual objective
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Capacity Requirements In the past t
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to consumers approximately 70% of a
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8 Figure 10.17: Plant Generating Co
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undertaken because of its economic
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China designated biofuels as a prio
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could help China achieve its object
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Background and Assumptions China’
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and consumption technologies. By 20
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Reference Scenario. More than two-t
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The most striking difference concer
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The slow-down in the growth of CO 2
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power generation and improving the
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of nuclear power reaches 6% of tota
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educing industrial consumption, eit
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towards gas-based ammonia productio
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Summary of Results In the Alternati
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Table 11.8: Policy Assumptions in C
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improve and appliance ownership inc
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Box 11.2: Cost-Effectiveness of Imp
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Investment in fossil-fuel supply is
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On the other hand, higher economic
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two-thirds of incremental oil deman
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Of the main final sectors, the tran
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Higher international prices also bo
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128 bcm to 216 bcm in 2030. In orde
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generation reaches 7.4 MWh, close t
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Though higher economic growth would
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The magnitude of the region’s imp
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Table 13.1: Economic Indicators by
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Figure 13.2: Share of the Coastal R
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Figure 13.3: Provincial Energy Inte
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incremental final energy demand. Fo
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Industry Industry is today the main
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the population in Beijing having ac
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The coastal provinces, with a deman
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APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 13: CHINA COAST
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PART C INDIA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
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The Political Context India is a fe
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up from 9% in 2005 and 8.3% in 2004
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Assam are on average poorer than ma
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in manufacturing productivity was t
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Economic Challenges Continuation of
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South Asia is the least integrated
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Box 14.2: Special Economic Zones in
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ecently extended into petrochemical
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CHAPTER 15 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY S
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after China and the United States.
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Box 15.1: India's Energy Statistics
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which was created in 1984 to reduce
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■ Electricity Regulatory Commissi
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and production, and in liquefied na
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(because of the captive restriction
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Table 15.3: India's Integrated Ener
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of Finance's Economic Survey 2006-2
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Box 15.3: Public-Private Partnershi
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CHAPTER 16 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAN
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Most energy prices in India are con
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Energy demand in the residential se
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Iron and Steel Industry India’s i
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80%. Past subsidies eliminated ince
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The transport sector currently cons
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Box 16.3: Upside Potential of Trans
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Figure 16.6: Residential Fuel Mix i
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Biomass use in urban households 14
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Kerosene and LPG supply 83% of the
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Other Sectors The services sector a
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from other sources - mainly industr
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Despite improvements in thermal eff
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Oil Supply Resources and Reserves I
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and decline to just under 400 kb/d
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expansions of cracking units. Betwe
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For crude oil alone, India's import
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Figure 17.5: Main Oil and Gas Infra
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come from offshore non-associated g
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Figure 17.7: India's Natural Gas Ba
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98 billion tonnes, principally in J
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Table 17.8: Coal Production in Indi
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15 000 Figure 17.9: Coal-Mining Pro
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Figure 17.10: India's Coal Producti
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India's coal-fired power plants are
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Box 17.4: CO 2 Capture and Storage
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Box 17.5: India's Nuclear Power Gen
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8 Figure 17.13: Electricity Generat
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India receives abundant solar radia
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in power generation alone is estima
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In 2005, revenues from electricity
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Figure 17.17: Electricity Losses by
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were shut down. Despite past proble
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CHAPTER 18 ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENA
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Key Results Energy Demand Primary e
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energy demand in the Alternative Po
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18 Figure 18.3: Local Air Pollutant
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Box 18.1: The Impacts of Climate Ch
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Summary of Results Total electricit
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Box 18.2: Performance of India's Co
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1970s hydropower accounted for arou
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35 Figure 18.8: India's Energy Savi
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to compressed natural gas (CNG), wh
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Delhi has encountered problems rela
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Policy Scenario, it is assumed that
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Figure 18.11: Change in Investment
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tariffs in the services and industr
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Background and Assumptions There ar
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period by passenger cars, is the ma
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Box 19.1: The Vehicle Stock in the
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Oil and Gas The production profile
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Electricity Electricity generation
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in 2030 will still be low, at 2.7 t
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and rising emissions of CO 2 , NO x
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Outlook for Clean Cooking Fuel and
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focus of government policy is to ex
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The government has focused many pro
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Expanding Access to Electricity in
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stoves. According to the World Heal
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Subsidies on Kerosene and LPG, and
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Uttar Pradesh (4.4 million) and Wes
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ANNEXES
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Reference Scenario: World Energy de
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Alternative Policy Scenario: World
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Reference Scenario: China Energy de
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Alternative Policy Scenario: China
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Reference Scenario: India Energy de
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Alternative Policy Scenario: India
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Reference Scenario: OECD Energy dem
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Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
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Reference Scenario: United States E
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Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific En
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Reference Scenario: Japan Energy de
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Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ene
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Reference Scenario: European Union
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Reference Scenario: Transition econ
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Reference Scenario: Russia Energy d
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Reference Scenario: Developing coun
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Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
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Reference Scenario: Latin America E
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Reference Scenario: Middle East Ene
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Reference Scenario: Africa Energy d
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ANNEX B ABBREVIATIONS, DEFINITIONS
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Coal-bed Methane Methane found in c
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Other Renewables Includes geotherma
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international marine bunkers, excep
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Rest of Developing Asia Developing
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IAEA IEA IGCC IMF IOC IPCC IPP LDV
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ANNEX D REFERENCES Introduction Int
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Stevens, C. and J. Kennan (2006), H
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— (2004), World Energy Outlook 20
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International Energy Agency (IEA, 2
Page 657 and 658:
Chew Chong Siang (2006), Current St
Page 659 and 660:
Williams, R. O., A. McKane et al. (
Page 661 and 662:
Garg, A. et al. (2006), “The sect
Page 663 and 664:
Malti, G. (2007), Carbon Capture an
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Pachauri, S. (2007), An Energy Anal
Page 674:
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