World Energy Outlook 2007

Implications for Investment
To meet the faster projected growth in energy demand in the High Growth
Scenario, a total of $5.1 trillion in year-2006 dollars, or almost $200 billion a
year, will need to be invested in China’s energy-supply infrastructure over
2006-2030. This is $1.4 trillion (36%) more than in the Reference Scenario.
The extra investment is needed to build more production and import capacity.
As in the Reference Scenario, the electricity sector is most in need
of investment, accounting for three-quarters of total energy investment
(Figure 12.7). Some 15% of total investment goes to the oil sector, 6% to coal
and 4% to gas.
In the High Growth Scenario, cumulative investment in the electricity sector
in 2006-2030, in year-2006 dollars, amounts to $3.8 trillion. China’s installed
generating capacity reaches 2 268 GW by 2030, compared with 1 775 GW in
the Reference Scenario. Cumulative investment over 2006-2030 in building
generating capacity to meet increasing demand and to offset retirements
reaches $1.7 trillion. Investment needs for transmission and distribution exceed
those for power plants, totalling $2.1 trillion in 2006-2030 – an increase of
37% over the Reference Scenario.
Figure 12.7: Cumulative Energy Supply Investment in China
in the Reference and High Growth Scenarios, 2006-2030
Electricity
12
Oil
Coal
Gas
0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
trillion dollars (2006)
Note : Oil includes investment in biofuels.
Reference Scenario
High Growth Scenario
As discussed in Chapter 10, power generation investment in China has historically
been made primarily by state-owned or provincially-owned entities, backed by
public funds. In the High Growth Scenario, China’s per-capita electricity
Chapter 12 – High Growth Scenario Projections 399