World Energy Outlook 2007

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in 2030. Strong vehicle growth will continue through the Outlook period, at 5.7% per annum, faster than the growth rate of GDP/capita, at 5.1%. The fleet of LDVs will increase faster than any other category of transport vehicles, from 11 million in 2005 to 115 million by 2030 – an annual average rate of growth of almost 10% per annum. Excluding two- and three-wheelers, there are currently 13 vehicles per 1 000 people in India. This ratio grows to 93 by 2030. Despite this seven-fold increase, vehicle ownership in 2030 is still only 15% that of Japan today (600 vehicles per 1 000 people). Two-wheelers 8 make up over 80% of the current vehicle stock, yet they consume around 15% of road-transport fuels. The recent shift from two-stroke to fourstroke engines for these vehicles has greatly increased efficiency and reduced air pollution. Two-wheelers are the first step on the ladder to increased personal mobility, because they are cheaper than cars and are well suited to congested cities with poor public transport services. Towards the end of the projection period, ownership of two-wheelers begins to plateau, as more people purchase passenger cars. Two-wheelers still account for over 50% of the total vehicle stock in 2030 (Figure 16.5). 350 Figure 16.5: India’s Vehicle Stock in the Reference Scenario 300 250 million 200 150 100 50 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Two-wheelers Trucks Buses LDVs Although the Indian vehicle stock is dominated by two-wheelers, which use motor gasoline, almost 70% of the oil used in road transport is diesel. This is due to the much higher per-vehicle consumption of heavy vehicles (mainly trucks and buses) and the increasing percentage of LDVs in India that run on diesel. The share of diesel is not expected to change significantly over the Outlook period, because the decrease in two-wheelers and the increasing share of diesel passenger cars is partly offset by the increase in buses and trucks for freight. 8. Two-wheelers refer to two- and three-wheel vehicles. 474 World Energy Outlook 2007 - INDIA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
Box 16.3: Upside Potential of Transport Oil Demand in India Our Reference Scenario projections for vehicle ownership and, therefore, oil demand for road transport in India may prove to be conservative. Experience around the world shows that vehicle ownership takes off when per-capita GDP, expressed in PPP terms, reaches a level of between $3 000 and $10 000, as a large portion of the population can then afford to own a vehicle (ADB, 2006). 9 India has recently passed the $3 000 tipping point and has seen a corresponding increase in vehicle ownership rates. As the vehicle stock is expanding rapidly, small changes in the projected rate of growth have a large impact on transport oil demand by the end of the projection period. While we have projected growth in the vehicle stock (excluding two-wheelers) to increase on average by 9.4% per year over the Outlook period – a rate well above the prevailing GDP growth rate assumption – only a slight increase in this rate of growth (which could result from faster GDP growth than assumed in the Reference Scenario) would push up road fuel consumption significantly, as highlighted in our High Growth Scenario (see Chapter 19). However, even if GDP and household incomes were to grow faster, infrastructure bottlenecks might constrain vehicle ownership rates and fuel demand. Much depends on public spending on highways and measures to tackle traffic congestion. Efforts are under way to improve the road network, such as the Golden Quadrilateral Highway project (see Chapter 14). The absence in India of mandatory vehicle fuel efficiency standards 10 , such as those in OECD countries, China and many other developing countries, suggests that the fuel efficiency of vehicles on the road in India will lag that of the OECD and China. 11 On the other hand, the large number of partnerships in India between local and foreign vehicle manufactures does mean that more efficient vehicle technology is being introduced into the country. In addition, India has introduced mandatory standards for pollutant emissions comparable to those adopted in the European Union, which has probably had the effect of accelerating the introduction of more fuel-efficient vehicles. Indian emission standards on two-wheelers are stricter than EU standards, but four-wheel vehicle standards lag those in Europe (Table 16.3). 16 9. For example, China had 3 cars per 1 000 people in 1994, when per-capita GDP reached the $3 000 mark. By 2004, GDP per capita had increased to over $6 000, while car ownership had increased to 13 cars per 1 000 people. 10. The introduction of fuel-efficiency standards are analysed in the Alternative Policy Scenario (see Chapter 18). 11. Recent trends are unclear, as reliable data do not exist for India. Chapter 16 – Reference Scenario Demand Projections 475
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
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FOREWORD World leaders have pledged
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This study was pre
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Helen Dickinson Carmen Difiglio Sim
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Tarhan Feyzioğlu John Fu Hu Gao We
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Comments and questions are welcome
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GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS ENERGY TRENDS
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Explaining China’s and India’s
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Oil Resources and Reserves 318 Oil
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16 17 Reference Scenario Demand Pro
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List of Figures Introduction 1. Sha
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3.9 Share of Energy in World Intern
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9.7 International Comparison of Fle
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13.5 Contribution of the Coastal Re
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18.4 India’s CO 2 Emissions in th
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2.2 Sectoral Shares in Final Energy
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11.6 Key Policy Assumptions in Chin
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List of Boxes Introduction 1. Model
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16.5 Kerosene Use in Rural Areas of
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World Energy Outlook Series World E
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above current levels in 2030. To ac
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Reference Scenario. In the High Gro
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Reference Scenario, primary energy
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By contrast, faster implementation
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of this increase. China is by far t
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There are large potential gains to
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India are now so big that they are
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of the two giants in international
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second trading period (2008-2012) o
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Table 1: World Population Growth (a
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high (see below). In the longer ter
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Table 3: Fossil-Fuel Price Assumpti
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$41 per tonne to $63 in 2006 (in ye
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In line with last year’s Outlook,
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equilibrium for international trade
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CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS
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standards for vehicles and new meas
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Figure 1.2: Increase in World Prima
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Global primary energy intensity, me
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Figure 1.6: Share of Transport in P
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Russia, Central Asia, Latin America
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It is certainly possible that decli
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Table 1.5: World Primary Natural Ga
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developments in clean coal technolo
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in the form of coking coal, grow st
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(Table 1.8). India and China experi
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Table 1.9: Cumulative Investment in
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policy implementation is critical:
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transition economies, because there
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15.1% in 2030, compared with 11.7%
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Table 1.12: World Primary Natural G
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Figure 1.19: Incremental Non-Fossil
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Figure 1.20: Fuel Mix in World Powe
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Table 1.14: World Primary Energy De
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The regional effect on oil imports
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in the Reference Scenario to 1 481
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The High Growth Scenario projection
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Reference Scenario Energy Demand Th
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having rebounded in the early part
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80% Figure 2.3: Fuel Mix in Power G
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SPOTLIGHT Are China and India Follo
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For both China and India, the story
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imports are projected to rise furth
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equires $956 billion of capital spe
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Table 2.4: Primary Energy Demand in
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Figure 2.9: Primary Energy Demand i
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China and India in the Global Econo
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production and exports of manufactu
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International Trade and Financial F
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total coal use in 2005, and the sec
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total stock of Chinese ODI amounted
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fear that Chinese and Indian export
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SPOTLIGHT (continued) In general, e
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Box 3.2: Modelling Economic and Ene
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Table 3.2: Fossil-Fuel Prices in th
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etween 5% and 8% in the High Growth
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Table 3.3: World Real GDP Growth in
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The results presented here should b
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Energy Security in a Global Market
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■ Adequate investment in producti
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efined products are global commodit
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Figure 4.1: Share of China and Indi
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Figure 4.3: Share of China and Indi
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Figure 4.4: Oil Export Flows from t
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Table 4.3: Net Natural Gas Imports
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Coal Coal dominates energy use in C
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Energy savings Diversification of f
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In China, oil security has emerged
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deprive the companies of profits an
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western markets. Any disruption to
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2015 and 20% higher in 2030. The ri
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Figure 4.10: Major World Oil Supply
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imports is demonstrated by the Alte
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prices to all consuming countries m
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Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions Globa
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In the past two-and-a-half decades,
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Transport contributes roughly a fif
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Box 5.1: Regional Air Quality (Cont
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Box 5.2: Which Countries Emit the M
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egion (Table 5.3 and Figure 5.10).
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Figure 5.11: Change in Carbon Inten
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Table 5.4: CO 2 Concentrations and
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illustrate the magnitude and urgenc
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Energy Demand by Sector CO 2 emissi
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Figure 5.13: Electricity Generation
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The capital costs involved in stabi
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Focus on Prospects for Clean Coal T
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Technologies involving the absorpti
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There are a number of barriers to t
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scheduled to operate in the first h
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CHAPTER 6 ENERGY POLICY RAMIFICATIO
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■ Conserving energy: Conservation
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The results of our Alternative Poli
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increasing need for oil and gas. Th
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Co-operation is a two-way street; I
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Technology Co-operation and Collabo
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continue to make an important contr
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een registered, are being validated
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PART B CHINA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
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The Political Context 1 Established
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percentage points over 2001. 3 In 2
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education. However, the government
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Capital accumulation was boosted by
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several times since the beginning o
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Yet pockets of extreme poverty rema
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year over the projection period, re
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infrastructure, housing and service
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CHAPTER 8 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY SE
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In the 1980s and 1990s, energy dema
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Industry has long been the largest
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Figure 8.3: China’s Energy Produc
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Figure 8.4: Organisation of Energy
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Box 8.2: Energy Goals in China’s
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Box 8.3: Coal-Based Alternative Fue
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projects are still the largest alte
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of these businesses. In its early s
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and retail competition, but much wo
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Access to Modern Energy China has a
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CHAPTER 9 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAND
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growth (Table 9.1). It is possible
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Table 9.3: China’s Primary Energy
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with an 89% share in 2005. By 2030,
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exported goods was only 197 Mtoe, o
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energy intensity of 9% in steel pro
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Non-Metallic Minerals The non-metal
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to 7.0% in 2005-2015 and 4.4% in 20
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Box 9.2: Prospects for Alternative
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develop their own-brand vehicles in
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standards are most stringent for he
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nearly one-fifth of the increase in
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in cities is assumed to grow steadi
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Appliance efficiency improvements w
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FGD units installed, along with the
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Table 9.8: Emissions of Major Pollu
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generate almost 1.2 billion CERs by
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CHAPTER 10 REFERENCE SCENARIO SUPPL
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Figure 10.1: China’s Oil and Gas
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Table 10.2: China’s Oil Productio
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Oil Refining China’s refining cap
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Saudi Aramco taking combined stakes
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Box 10.2: China’s Emergency Oil S
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which close to 90% are onshore (Tab
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Table 10.5: China’s Natural Gas P
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e built, because of concerns about
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coal resources lie in the provinces
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Table 10.7: China’s Coal Producti
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of 829 Mt of coal each year by the
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An outside-plan spot market has exi
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Figure 10.13: China’s Hard Coal T
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Figure 10.14: Electricity Generatio
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China is pursuing a dual objective
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Capacity Requirements In the past t
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to consumers approximately 70% of a
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8 Figure 10.17: Plant Generating Co
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undertaken because of its economic
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China designated biofuels as a prio
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could help China achieve its object
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Background and Assumptions China’
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and consumption technologies. By 20
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Reference Scenario. More than two-t
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The most striking difference concer
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The slow-down in the growth of CO 2
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power generation and improving the
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of nuclear power reaches 6% of tota
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educing industrial consumption, eit
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towards gas-based ammonia productio
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Summary of Results In the Alternati
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Table 11.8: Policy Assumptions in C
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improve and appliance ownership inc
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Box 11.2: Cost-Effectiveness of Imp
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Investment in fossil-fuel supply is
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On the other hand, higher economic
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two-thirds of incremental oil deman
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Of the main final sectors, the tran
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Higher international prices also bo
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128 bcm to 216 bcm in 2030. In orde
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generation reaches 7.4 MWh, close t
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Though higher economic growth would
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The magnitude of the region’s imp
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Table 13.1: Economic Indicators by
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Figure 13.2: Share of the Coastal R
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Figure 13.3: Provincial Energy Inte
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incremental final energy demand. Fo
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Industry Industry is today the main
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the population in Beijing having ac
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The coastal provinces, with a deman
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APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 13: CHINA COAST
Page 425: PART C INDIA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
Page 428 and 429: The Political Context India is a fe
Page 430 and 431: up from 9% in 2005 and 8.3% in 2004
Page 432 and 433: Assam are on average poorer than ma
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Page 436 and 437: Economic Challenges Continuation of
Page 438 and 439: South Asia is the least integrated
Page 440 and 441: Box 14.2: Special Economic Zones in
Page 442 and 443: ecently extended into petrochemical
Page 445 and 446: CHAPTER 15 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY S
Page 447 and 448: after China and the United States.
Page 449 and 450: Box 15.1: India's Energy Statistics
Page 451 and 452: which was created in 1984 to reduce
Page 453 and 454: ■ Electricity Regulatory Commissi
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Page 459 and 460: Table 15.3: India's Integrated Ener
Page 461 and 462: of Finance's Economic Survey 2006-2
Page 463 and 464: Box 15.3: Public-Private Partnershi
Page 465 and 466: CHAPTER 16 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAN
Page 467 and 468: Most energy prices in India are con
Page 469 and 470: Energy demand in the residential se
Page 471 and 472: Iron and Steel Industry India’s i
Page 473 and 474: 80%. Past subsidies eliminated ince
Page 475: The transport sector currently cons
Page 479 and 480: Figure 16.6: Residential Fuel Mix i
Page 481 and 482: Biomass use in urban households 14
Page 483 and 484: Kerosene and LPG supply 83% of the
Page 485 and 486: Other Sectors The services sector a
Page 487 and 488: from other sources - mainly industr
Page 489: Despite improvements in thermal eff
Page 492 and 493: Oil Supply Resources and Reserves I
Page 494 and 495: and decline to just under 400 kb/d
Page 496 and 497: expansions of cracking units. Betwe
Page 498 and 499: For crude oil alone, India's import
Page 500 and 501: Figure 17.5: Main Oil and Gas Infra
Page 502 and 503: come from offshore non-associated g
Page 504 and 505: Figure 17.7: India's Natural Gas Ba
Page 506 and 507: 98 billion tonnes, principally in J
Page 508 and 509: Table 17.8: Coal Production in Indi
Page 510 and 511: 15 000 Figure 17.9: Coal-Mining Pro
Page 512 and 513: Figure 17.10: India's Coal Producti
Page 514 and 515: India's coal-fired power plants are
Page 516 and 517: Box 17.4: CO 2 Capture and Storage
Page 518 and 519: Box 17.5: India's Nuclear Power Gen
Page 520 and 521: 8 Figure 17.13: Electricity Generat
Page 522 and 523: India receives abundant solar radia
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In 2005, revenues from electricity
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Figure 17.17: Electricity Losses by
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were shut down. Despite past proble
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CHAPTER 18 ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENA
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Key Results Energy Demand Primary e
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energy demand in the Alternative Po
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18 Figure 18.3: Local Air Pollutant
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Box 18.1: The Impacts of Climate Ch
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Summary of Results Total electricit
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Box 18.2: Performance of India's Co
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1970s hydropower accounted for arou
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35 Figure 18.8: India's Energy Savi
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to compressed natural gas (CNG), wh
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Delhi has encountered problems rela
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Policy Scenario, it is assumed that
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Figure 18.11: Change in Investment
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tariffs in the services and industr
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Background and Assumptions There ar
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period by passenger cars, is the ma
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Box 19.1: The Vehicle Stock in the
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Oil and Gas The production profile
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Electricity Electricity generation
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in 2030 will still be low, at 2.7 t
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and rising emissions of CO 2 , NO x
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Outlook for Clean Cooking Fuel and
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focus of government policy is to ex
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The government has focused many pro
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Expanding Access to Electricity in
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stoves. According to the World Heal
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Subsidies on Kerosene and LPG, and
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Uttar Pradesh (4.4 million) and Wes
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ANNEXES
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Reference Scenario: World Energy de
Page 596 and 597:
Alternative Policy Scenario: World
Page 598 and 599:
Reference Scenario: China Energy de
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Alternative Policy Scenario: China
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Reference Scenario: India Energy de
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Alternative Policy Scenario: India
Page 606 and 607:
Reference Scenario: OECD Energy dem
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Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
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Reference Scenario: United States E
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Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific En
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Reference Scenario: Japan Energy de
Page 616 and 617:
Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ene
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Reference Scenario: European Union
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Reference Scenario: Transition econ
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Reference Scenario: Russia Energy d
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Reference Scenario: Developing coun
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Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
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Reference Scenario: Latin America E
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Reference Scenario: Middle East Ene
Page 632 and 633:
Reference Scenario: Africa Energy d
Page 635 and 636:
ANNEX B ABBREVIATIONS, DEFINITIONS
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Coal-bed Methane Methane found in c
Page 639 and 640:
Other Renewables Includes geotherma
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international marine bunkers, excep
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Rest of Developing Asia Developing
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IAEA IEA IGCC IMF IOC IPCC IPP LDV
Page 649 and 650:
ANNEX D REFERENCES Introduction Int
Page 651 and 652:
Stevens, C. and J. Kennan (2006), H
Page 653 and 654:
— (2004), World Energy Outlook 20
Page 655 and 656:
International Energy Agency (IEA, 2
Page 657 and 658:
Chew Chong Siang (2006), Current St
Page 659 and 660:
Williams, R. O., A. McKane et al. (
Page 661 and 662:
Garg, A. et al. (2006), “The sect
Page 663 and 664:
Malti, G. (2007), Carbon Capture an
Page 665:
Pachauri, S. (2007), An Energy Anal
Page 674:
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