World Energy Outlook 2007

CHAPTER 16
REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAND PROJECTIONS
HIGHLIGHTS
Primary energy demand in India more than doubles by 2030 in the
Reference Scenario, driven largely by GDP which is assumed to expand
at an average annual rate of 6.3%. Coal remains the most important
fuel, but oil demand also grows fast, increasing two-and-a-half times by
2030. Energy intensity declines progressively thanks to efficiency
improvements and a continuation of the shift to services and less
energy-intensive industry. A reduction in the share of fuelwood and
dung in residential energy use also contributes. Power generation
accounts for much of the increase in demand.
The growth rate in industrial energy demand is expected to accelerate
to 4.7% per year in 2005-2015, with surging demand for steel, cement
and other materials for infrastructure development. It then slows down
to 3.7% in 2015-2030, as end-use efficiency improves. Energy demand
in the iron and steel sector grows by 5.9% in 2005-2030. Coal, mainly
for steel production, and electricity remain the dominant fuels for
industrial use over the Outlook period.
Energy demand for transport will see rapid growth in the next twoand-a-half
decades. It is projected to grow by 6.1% per year, reaching
162 Mtoe in 2030 as the vehicle stock expands rapidly with rising
economic activity and household incomes. As more people can afford
passenger cars, ownership of two- and three-wheelers begins to plateau
towards the end of the projection period. But they still account for over
50% of the total vehicle stock in 2030.
Residential energy demand grows by 1.6% per year over 2005-2030.
The share in residential energy use of biomass, including fuelwood,
dung and agricultural waste, falls from 79% in 2005 to 59% in 2030.
This decline, however, masks a wide disparity between rural and urban
households. Biomass consumption falls by 0.6% per year in urban
households, but still grows slightly in rural households, by 0.5% per
year.
NO x
emissions, mainly from road vehicles and the power sector, are
projected to rise sharply in the Reference Scenario. SO 2
emissions are
set to rise even faster. India becomes the world’s third-largest CO 2
emitter by 2015. It ranked fifth in 2005. Two-thirds of India’s
emissions come from burning coal, mainly in power stations. This
share will increase slightly, to 69%, by 2030. Per-capita CO 2
emissions,
though doubling over the Outlook period, are in 2030 still well below
those in the OECD today.
Chapter 16 – Reference Scenario Demand Projections 463