World Energy Outlook 2007

to compressed natural gas (CNG), which has already led to a marked
improvement in local air pollution. 5 The introduction of vehicle emission
standards, based on those in the European Union, has also helped to curb fuel
use and pollution. The government encourages the use of ethanol through a
requirement for a 5% ethanol component in gasoline blends.
The Alternative Policy Scenario assumes faster vehicle fuel-efficiency
improvements than in the Reference Scenario, resulting from increased cooperation
with foreign manufactures and deployment in India of more
advanced technology. Biofuels are also heavily promoted. Public transport
systems are improved, particularly through an expansion of bus rapid transit
systems and, in some cases, suburban rail, resulting in a 15% reduction in the
use of cars and two- and three-wheelers. While there is already discussion of the
possible penetration of hybrids, hydrogen vehicles and CTL in the Indian
transport sector, a combination of the technological challenges, the lack of
infrastructure and a lack of policy support delay their arrival until after 2030
in the Alternative Policy Scenario.
Urban rail services exist in only four Indian cities – Mumbai, Delhi, Kolkata
and Chennai. Bus travel accounts for over 90% of public transport use in India
(Pucher et al., 2005). There are few proposals to improve bus systems. Buses
could be suitable for Indian cities with large urban sprawl, but they may face
space constraints. An increase in rapid-transit bus systems has been assumed in
the Alternative Policy Scenario.
Summary of Results
The combination of policies considered in the Alternative Policy Scenario
yields savings in India's transport energy demand of 8% by 2015 and 16% by
2030. These savings account for 12% of the total energy savings in the
Alternative Policy Scenario and, in volumetric terms, are double the savings in
transport energy demand in the entire OECD Pacific region. In percentage
terms, they are almost double those achieved in the OECD's transport sector
in the same scenario. Most of the savings come from road transport. Oil savings
amount to 8 Mtoe in 2015 and 39 Mtoe in 2030, because of substitution by
biofuels and CNG (Figure 18.9). Total oil use in the sector grows at a rate of
4.8% per annum in 2005-2030, compared to 6.1% per annum in the
Reference Scenario. Natural gas use increases more quickly, by 11.4% per year
as against 7.6% in the Reference Scenario, although this usage in the transport
sector still accounts for only 11% of total Indian gas demand by 2030. A shift
towards increased rail travel, both for urban passenger transportation and
freight, boosts electricity consumption in transport in the Alternative Policy
18
5. A 32% reduction in carbon monoxide and a 39% reduction in sulphur-dioxide levels in 2002
compared with 1997 (Department of Environment, Government of NCT of Delhi & Delhi
Pollution Control Committee, 2003).
Chapter 18 - Alternative Policy Scenario Projections 549