World Energy Outlook 2007

Non-Fossil Energy Sources
Nuclear power supply worldwide is projected to grow slowly over the projection
period in the Reference Scenario, from 2 771 terawatt-hours in 2005 to
3 275 TWh in 2030. This is an average annual growth rate of 0.7%, compared
with 2.7% per year for total electricity generation. Installed capacity increases from
368 gigawatts to 415 GW. The most significant increases occur in China, Japan,
India, Russia, the United States and Korea, with 83% coming from China and
India alone. Because of the adopted assumption that existing policies continue
unchanged, nuclear capacity in OECD Europe falls from 131 GW to 74 GW –
in large part due to phase-out policies in Germany, Sweden and Belgium, which
result in the closure of all nuclear power plants in these three countries before 2030.
World hydropower production is projected to grow by an average 2% per year
over the Outlook period, its share of primary demand remaining broadly
constant at about 2%, while its share of electricity generation drops from 16%
to 14%. Developing countries account for over three-quarters of the increase
in hydropower production. There are few low-cost hydroelectric resources left
to exploit in OECD countries, but there are still opportunities for adding
capacity in the developing world.
Consumption of biomass and waste continues to grow in absolute terms
between 2005 and 2030, though, at an average rate of 1.4% per year, less
rapidly than demand for energy as a whole. Their use remains highly
concentrated in poor households in developing countries, where modern fuels
are too expensive or, in the case of some rural areas, simply not available. The
share of biomass in household energy use gradually declines as, with rising
incomes, they are replaced by modern commercial fuels. In contrast, the use of
biomass for the production of biofuels grows strongly from 19 Mtoe in 2005
to 102 Mtoe in 2030, an average annual rate of 7%. The use of biomass for
power and heat generation increases, particularly in OECD countries.
Other renewables – a group that includes geothermal, solar, wind, tidal and
wave energy – grow faster than any other energy source, at an average rate of
6.7% per year over the Outlook period. But they still make only a small
contribution to meeting global energy demand in 2030, because they start
from a very low base. Most of the increase in the use of this category of
renewables is in the power sector. The increase is much bigger in OECD
countries, many of which have adopted strong measures aimed at encouraging
the take-up of modern renewable-energy technologies.
Electricity Demand and Generation
Global electricity demand in the Reference Scenario is projected to almost
double over the next 25 years, from 15 016 TWh in 2005 to 29 737 TWh in
2030. On average, demand grows by 2.8% per year worldwide. In developing
countries, it grows three times as fast as in the OECD, tripling by 2030
92 World Energy Outlook 2007 - GLOBAL ENERGY PROSPECTS: IMPACT OF DEVELOPMENTS IN CHINA & INDIA