World Energy Outlook 2007

from other sources – mainly industry – was much lower. Emissions from
transportation have declined, largely because of more stringent fuel-quality
standards. 18
In the absence of more stringent government measures, such as requirements to
instal flue-gas scrubbers and coal washing, SO 2
emissions are set to rise further.
The power sector will remain the main emitter. Total emissions rise to 16.5 Mt
in 2030 in the Reference Scenario (Table 16.5).
Emissions of NO x
come mainly from vehicles and the power sector. They are the
cause of urban smog. NO x
concentrations have increased slightly in recent years,
but are still well below the national standard for residential areas. They are
projected to rise sharply in the Reference Scenario and NO x
pollution will
become an increasingly serious problem in the coming decades unless new
control measures are introduced. In the Reference Scenario, total NO x
emissions
increase from 4 Mt in 2005 to 8.5 Mt in 2030. Most of the increase will come
from the transport sector, with adverse implications for air quality in urban areas,
followed by the power sector. By contrast, emissions of particulate matter, which
come mainly from biomass burning by households, are projected to decline,
falling from 4.7 Mt in 2005 to 4.2 Mt in 2030.
Table 16.5: Local Air Pollutant Emissions in India
in the Reference Scenario (kilotonnes)
1990 2005 2015 2030 2005-
2030*
SO 2
3 668 6 699 9 759 16 546 3.7%
NO x
2 791 4 109 5 165 8 528 3.0%
PM 2.5
4 206 4 681 4 469 4 192 –0.4%
* Average annual rate of growth.
CO 2
Emissions
India was the fifth-largest emitter of energy-related carbon dioxide in 2005,
releasing 1.1 Gt into the atmosphere or 4% of the world total. India becomes
the third-largest CO 2
emitter in 2015 in the Reference Scenario, when its
emissions rise by almost 60%. Emissions in the Reference Scenario are
projected to rise to 3.3 Gt by 2030, an average rate of increase of 4.3% per year.
By the end of the projection period, India accounts for 8% of global emissions.
It is likely to pass Japan as the fourth-largest emitter well before 2010 and
Russia, currently the third-largest CO 2
emitter, in 2015. Two-thirds of India’s
16
18. Indian refineries reduced the sulphur content of diesel for cars in the four largest cities to 0.25% in 2000
and to 0.05% in 2001 (Garg et al., 2006).
Chapter 16 – Reference Scenario Demand Projections 485