World Energy Outlook 2007

following decade. But major new capacity additions would be needed after
2025. By 2030, the gap between currently planned capacity and demand
would reach 20 bcm, requiring the equivalent of four additional 5-bcm
terminals. However, these projections depend on the availability of supplies
from LNG-exporting countries and the competitivity of gas against other fuels
in the Indian market.
Protracted negotiations over LNG imports have led to delays in finalising a
number of planned projects. Price has been the main stumbling block, as
increasingly expensive LNG struggles to compete against cheap coal and
domestic gas in the Indian market. LNG is nonetheless the most competitive
way of filling the gap between rising demand and indigenous production. It is
very unlikely that alternative supplies through pipelines will reach the Indian
market for many years. Several pipeline projects have been mooted, including
those from Iran, Myanmar, Turkmenistan and Oman. The Iran-Pakistan-India
pipeline, which would be more than 2 660 km-long and have a capacity of 60
mcm/day (of which half would be allocated to India), has been under
discussion since 1994. Geopolitical factors, transit charges and pricing are still
complicating negotiations. We do not take any of these pipeline projects into
account in the Reference Scenario.
Coal Supply
Resources and Reserves
India has the world's fourth-largest hard coal resources, after Russia, China and
the United States (BGR, 2007). India's total hard coal resources, to a depth of
1 200 metres, are estimated at 255 billion tonnes (Table 17.7). Some 60% of
these resources lie within 300 metres of the surface, making them potentially
exploitable by surface mining techniques. Proven reserves of hard coal total
Table 17.7: Coal Resources and Reserves in India
Billion tonnes
Notes
Hard coal resources 255.2 to a depth of 1 200 metres - 60% lie within
300 metres of the surface
Proven hard coal reserves 97.9 17% of these reserves are classified as
coking coal - located mainly in Jharkhand
Recoverable hard coal 34.7 assuming 35.4% recovery, after accounting
reserves
for unmineable reserves and mining
methods
Lignite resources 34.8 mainly in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry
Sources: Geological Survey of India (2007); Planning Commission (2006); Ministry of Coal (2005).
17
Chapter 17 - Reference Scenario Supply Projections 503