World Energy Outlook 2007

Table 1.5: World Primary Natural Gas Production in the Reference Scenario
(billion cubic metres)
1
1980 2000 2005 2015 2030 2005-
2030*
OECD 879 1 114 1 106 1 199 1 219 0.4%
North America 650 769 743 820 839 0.5%
Europe 217 304 315 292 251 –0.9%
Pacific 12 42 48 87 129 4.0%
Transition economies 480 732 814 947 1 155 1.4%
Russia n.a. 576 639 702 823 1.0%
Developing countries 155 691 944 1 543 2 405 3.8%
China 14 28 51 103 111 3.2%
India 1 25 29 45 51 2.3%
Other Asia 43 190 240 310 431 2.4%
Middle East 38 212 304 589 940 4.6%
Africa 23 131 186 279 501 4.0%
Latin America 35 104 134 217 372 4.2%
World 1 514 2 538 2 864 3 689 4 779 2.1%
* Average annual rate of growth.
generally reflect the relative size of reserves and, given the high costs of
transporting gas over long distances, their proximity to the main consuming
markets. How major resource holders will respond to increasing demand is a
matter of considerable uncertainty.
Although most regions continue to be supplied mainly with indigenously
produced gas, the share of gas supply that is traded between regions grows
sharply – from 13% in 2005 to 22% in 2030. All the regions that already
import gas on a net basis become more import-dependent by 2030, both in
terms of volume and, with the exception of OECD Pacific, the share of total
consumption (Figure 1.9). Imports in OECD Europe increase most in
absolute terms, from 234 bcm to 520 bcm. North America, which only
recently started importing liquefied natural gas (LNG) in significant
quantities, becomes a major importer. About two-thirds of the increase in
global inter-regional exports over the projection period comes from the Middle
East and Africa. Most of these additional exports go to Europe, OECD Asia
and North America. Some 13% comes from Russia and other transition
economies, most of which is destined for Europe. China, Korea and Japan
emerge as new importers of gas from Russia and Central Asia, though the
volumes are expected to remain modest.
Chapter 1 - Global Energy Trends 87