World Energy Outlook 2007

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APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 13: CHINA COASTAL REFERENCE SCENARIO PROJECTIONS For definitions, please refer to Annex A and Annex B at the end of the book. Energy demand (Mtoe) Shares (%) Growth (% p.a.) 2000 2005 2015 2030 2005 2015 2030 2005- 2005- 2015 2030 Total primary energy demand 566 954 1 479 2 050 100 100 100 4.5 3.1 Coal 356 633 997 1 285 66 67 63 4.7 2.9 Oil 123 214 328 490 22 22 24 4.4 3.4 Gas 4 13 55 131 1 4 6 15.1 9.6 Nuclear 4 14 32 67 1 2 3 8.8 6.5 Hydro 4 6 6 8 1 0 0 1.4 1.3 Biomass and waste 74 74 58 62 8 4 3 –2.4 –0.7 Other renewables 0 0 3 7 0 0 0 35.9 17.8 Power generation 175 344 643 1 043 100 100 100 6.4 4.5 Coal 154 310 568 881 90 88 85 6.3 4.3 Oil 12 12 15 12 4 2 1 1.7 –0.1 Gas 0 1 17 56 0 3 5 30.0 16.5 Nuclear 4 14 32 67 4 5 6 8.8 6.5 Hydro 4 6 6 8 2 1 1 1.4 1.3 Biomass and waste 1 1 2 11 0 0 1 4.8 9.0 Other renewables 0 0 3 7 0 0 1 35.9 17.8 Other energy sector 72 120 162 205 100 100 100 3.0 2.2 Total final consumption 402 643 972 1 297 100 100 100 4.2 2.8 Coal 151 240 323 275 37 33 21 3.0 0.5 Oil 93 170 272 427 26 28 33 4.8 3.8 Gas 5 13 37 73 2 4 6 10.9 7.1 Electricity 59 113 229 402 18 24 31 7.4 5.2 Heat 21 34 55 69 5 6 5 4.9 2.9 Biomass and waste 73 73 56 51 11 6 4 –2.5 –1.4 Other renewables 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. n.a. Electricity (TWh) Shares (%) Growth (% p.a.) 2000 2005 2015 2030 2005 2015 2030 2005- 2005- 2015 2030 Total generation 688 1 233 2 684 4 769 100 100 100 8.1 5.6 Coal 575 1 054 2 332 4 016 85 87 84 8.3 5.5 Oil 44 52 52 43 4 2 1 0.0 -0.7 Gas 1 4 67 249 0 2 5 31.6 17.6 Nuclear 17 53 123 256 4 5 5 8.8 6.5 Hydro 51 65 75 90 5 3 2 1.4 1.3 Biomass and waste 1 3 6 33 0 0 1 5.6 9.7 Wind 0 1 29 69 0 1 1 36.7 17.3 Geothermal 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 36.1 18.2 Solar 0 0 0 12 0 0 0 -0.4 22.1 Tide and wave 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. n.a. 420 World Energy Outlook 2007 - CHINA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
CO 2 emissions (Mt) Shares (%) Growth (% p.a.) 2000 2005 2015 2030 2005 2015 2030 2005- 2005- 2015 2030 Total CO 2 emissions 1 531 2 780 4 612 6 256 100 100 100 5.2 3.3 Coal 1 231 2 264 3 607 4 631 81 78 74 4.8 2.9 Oil 289 486 888 1 340 17 19 21 6.2 4.1 Gas 11 31 117 285 1 3 5 14.2 9.3 Power generation 646 1 266 2 331 3 652 100 100 100 6.3 4.3 Coal 607 1 223 2 245 3 482 97 96 95 6.3 4.3 Oil 38 39 46 38 3 2 1 1.6 -0.1 Gas 1 3 40 132 0 2 4 30.0 16.5 Total final consumption 874 1 499 2 159 2 457 100 100 100 3.7 2.0 Coal 624 1 040 1 362 1 149 69 63 47 2.7 0.4 Oil 240 430 720 1 155 29 33 47 5.3 4.0 Gas 10 28 78 154 2 4 6 10.7 7.0 13 Chapter 13 – Focus on the Coastal Region 421
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
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FOREWORD World leaders have pledged
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This study was pre
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Helen Dickinson Carmen Difiglio Sim
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Tarhan Feyzioğlu John Fu Hu Gao We
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Comments and questions are welcome
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GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS ENERGY TRENDS
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Explaining China’s and India’s
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Oil Resources and Reserves 318 Oil
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16 17 Reference Scenario Demand Pro
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List of Figures Introduction 1. Sha
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3.9 Share of Energy in World Intern
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9.7 International Comparison of Fle
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13.5 Contribution of the Coastal Re
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18.4 India’s CO 2 Emissions in th
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2.2 Sectoral Shares in Final Energy
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11.6 Key Policy Assumptions in Chin
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List of Boxes Introduction 1. Model
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16.5 Kerosene Use in Rural Areas of
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World Energy Outlook Series World E
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above current levels in 2030. To ac
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Reference Scenario. In the High Gro
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Reference Scenario, primary energy
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By contrast, faster implementation
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of this increase. China is by far t
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There are large potential gains to
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India are now so big that they are
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of the two giants in international
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second trading period (2008-2012) o
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Table 1: World Population Growth (a
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high (see below). In the longer ter
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Table 3: Fossil-Fuel Price Assumpti
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$41 per tonne to $63 in 2006 (in ye
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In line with last year’s Outlook,
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equilibrium for international trade
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CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS
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standards for vehicles and new meas
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Figure 1.2: Increase in World Prima
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Global primary energy intensity, me
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Figure 1.6: Share of Transport in P
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Russia, Central Asia, Latin America
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It is certainly possible that decli
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Table 1.5: World Primary Natural Ga
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developments in clean coal technolo
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in the form of coking coal, grow st
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(Table 1.8). India and China experi
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Table 1.9: Cumulative Investment in
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policy implementation is critical:
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transition economies, because there
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15.1% in 2030, compared with 11.7%
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Table 1.12: World Primary Natural G
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Figure 1.19: Incremental Non-Fossil
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Figure 1.20: Fuel Mix in World Powe
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Table 1.14: World Primary Energy De
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The regional effect on oil imports
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in the Reference Scenario to 1 481
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The High Growth Scenario projection
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Reference Scenario Energy Demand Th
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having rebounded in the early part
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80% Figure 2.3: Fuel Mix in Power G
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SPOTLIGHT Are China and India Follo
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For both China and India, the story
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imports are projected to rise furth
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equires $956 billion of capital spe
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Table 2.4: Primary Energy Demand in
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Figure 2.9: Primary Energy Demand i
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China and India in the Global Econo
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production and exports of manufactu
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International Trade and Financial F
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total coal use in 2005, and the sec
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total stock of Chinese ODI amounted
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fear that Chinese and Indian export
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SPOTLIGHT (continued) In general, e
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Box 3.2: Modelling Economic and Ene
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Table 3.2: Fossil-Fuel Prices in th
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etween 5% and 8% in the High Growth
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Table 3.3: World Real GDP Growth in
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The results presented here should b
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Energy Security in a Global Market
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■ Adequate investment in producti
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efined products are global commodit
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Figure 4.1: Share of China and Indi
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Figure 4.3: Share of China and Indi
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Figure 4.4: Oil Export Flows from t
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Table 4.3: Net Natural Gas Imports
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Coal Coal dominates energy use in C
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Energy savings Diversification of f
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In China, oil security has emerged
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deprive the companies of profits an
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western markets. Any disruption to
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2015 and 20% higher in 2030. The ri
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Figure 4.10: Major World Oil Supply
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imports is demonstrated by the Alte
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prices to all consuming countries m
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Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions Globa
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In the past two-and-a-half decades,
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Transport contributes roughly a fif
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Box 5.1: Regional Air Quality (Cont
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Box 5.2: Which Countries Emit the M
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egion (Table 5.3 and Figure 5.10).
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Figure 5.11: Change in Carbon Inten
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Table 5.4: CO 2 Concentrations and
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illustrate the magnitude and urgenc
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Energy Demand by Sector CO 2 emissi
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Figure 5.13: Electricity Generation
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The capital costs involved in stabi
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Focus on Prospects for Clean Coal T
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Technologies involving the absorpti
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There are a number of barriers to t
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scheduled to operate in the first h
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CHAPTER 6 ENERGY POLICY RAMIFICATIO
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■ Conserving energy: Conservation
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The results of our Alternative Poli
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increasing need for oil and gas. Th
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Co-operation is a two-way street; I
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Technology Co-operation and Collabo
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continue to make an important contr
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een registered, are being validated
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PART B CHINA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
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The Political Context 1 Established
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percentage points over 2001. 3 In 2
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education. However, the government
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Capital accumulation was boosted by
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several times since the beginning o
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Yet pockets of extreme poverty rema
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year over the projection period, re
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infrastructure, housing and service
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CHAPTER 8 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY SE
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In the 1980s and 1990s, energy dema
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Industry has long been the largest
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Figure 8.3: China’s Energy Produc
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Figure 8.4: Organisation of Energy
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Box 8.2: Energy Goals in China’s
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Box 8.3: Coal-Based Alternative Fue
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projects are still the largest alte
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of these businesses. In its early s
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and retail competition, but much wo
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Access to Modern Energy China has a
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CHAPTER 9 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAND
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growth (Table 9.1). It is possible
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Table 9.3: China’s Primary Energy
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with an 89% share in 2005. By 2030,
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exported goods was only 197 Mtoe, o
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energy intensity of 9% in steel pro
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Non-Metallic Minerals The non-metal
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to 7.0% in 2005-2015 and 4.4% in 20
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Box 9.2: Prospects for Alternative
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develop their own-brand vehicles in
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standards are most stringent for he
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nearly one-fifth of the increase in
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in cities is assumed to grow steadi
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Appliance efficiency improvements w
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FGD units installed, along with the
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Table 9.8: Emissions of Major Pollu
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generate almost 1.2 billion CERs by
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CHAPTER 10 REFERENCE SCENARIO SUPPL
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Figure 10.1: China’s Oil and Gas
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Table 10.2: China’s Oil Productio
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Oil Refining China’s refining cap
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Saudi Aramco taking combined stakes
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Box 10.2: China’s Emergency Oil S
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which close to 90% are onshore (Tab
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Table 10.5: China’s Natural Gas P
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e built, because of concerns about
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coal resources lie in the provinces
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Table 10.7: China’s Coal Producti
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of 829 Mt of coal each year by the
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An outside-plan spot market has exi
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Figure 10.13: China’s Hard Coal T
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Figure 10.14: Electricity Generatio
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China is pursuing a dual objective
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Capacity Requirements In the past t
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to consumers approximately 70% of a
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8 Figure 10.17: Plant Generating Co
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undertaken because of its economic
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China designated biofuels as a prio
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could help China achieve its object
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Background and Assumptions China’
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and consumption technologies. By 20
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Reference Scenario. More than two-t
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The most striking difference concer
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Page 380 and 381: towards gas-based ammonia productio
Page 382 and 383: Summary of Results In the Alternati
Page 384 and 385: Table 11.8: Policy Assumptions in C
Page 386 and 387: improve and appliance ownership inc
Page 388 and 389: Box 11.2: Cost-Effectiveness of Imp
Page 390 and 391: Investment in fossil-fuel supply is
Page 392 and 393: On the other hand, higher economic
Page 394 and 395: two-thirds of incremental oil deman
Page 396 and 397: Of the main final sectors, the tran
Page 398 and 399: Higher international prices also bo
Page 400 and 401: 128 bcm to 216 bcm in 2030. In orde
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Page 404 and 405: Though higher economic growth would
Page 406 and 407: The magnitude of the region’s imp
Page 408 and 409: Table 13.1: Economic Indicators by
Page 410 and 411: Figure 13.2: Share of the Coastal R
Page 412 and 413: Figure 13.3: Provincial Energy Inte
Page 414 and 415: incremental final energy demand. Fo
Page 416 and 417: Industry Industry is today the main
Page 418 and 419: the population in Beijing having ac
Page 420 and 421: The coastal provinces, with a deman
Page 425: PART C INDIA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
Page 428 and 429: The Political Context India is a fe
Page 430 and 431: up from 9% in 2005 and 8.3% in 2004
Page 432 and 433: Assam are on average poorer than ma
Page 434 and 435: in manufacturing productivity was t
Page 436 and 437: Economic Challenges Continuation of
Page 438 and 439: South Asia is the least integrated
Page 440 and 441: Box 14.2: Special Economic Zones in
Page 442 and 443: ecently extended into petrochemical
Page 445 and 446: CHAPTER 15 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY S
Page 447 and 448: after China and the United States.
Page 449 and 450: Box 15.1: India's Energy Statistics
Page 451 and 452: which was created in 1984 to reduce
Page 453 and 454: ■ Electricity Regulatory Commissi
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Page 459 and 460: Table 15.3: India's Integrated Ener
Page 461 and 462: of Finance's Economic Survey 2006-2
Page 463 and 464: Box 15.3: Public-Private Partnershi
Page 465 and 466: CHAPTER 16 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAN
Page 467 and 468: Most energy prices in India are con
Page 469 and 470: Energy demand in the residential se
Page 471 and 472: Iron and Steel Industry India’s i
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80%. Past subsidies eliminated ince
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The transport sector currently cons
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Box 16.3: Upside Potential of Trans
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Figure 16.6: Residential Fuel Mix i
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Biomass use in urban households 14
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Kerosene and LPG supply 83% of the
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Other Sectors The services sector a
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from other sources - mainly industr
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Despite improvements in thermal eff
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Oil Supply Resources and Reserves I
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and decline to just under 400 kb/d
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expansions of cracking units. Betwe
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For crude oil alone, India's import
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Figure 17.5: Main Oil and Gas Infra
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come from offshore non-associated g
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Figure 17.7: India's Natural Gas Ba
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98 billion tonnes, principally in J
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Table 17.8: Coal Production in Indi
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15 000 Figure 17.9: Coal-Mining Pro
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Figure 17.10: India's Coal Producti
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India's coal-fired power plants are
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Box 17.4: CO 2 Capture and Storage
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Box 17.5: India's Nuclear Power Gen
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8 Figure 17.13: Electricity Generat
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India receives abundant solar radia
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in power generation alone is estima
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In 2005, revenues from electricity
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Figure 17.17: Electricity Losses by
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were shut down. Despite past proble
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CHAPTER 18 ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENA
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Key Results Energy Demand Primary e
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energy demand in the Alternative Po
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18 Figure 18.3: Local Air Pollutant
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Box 18.1: The Impacts of Climate Ch
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Summary of Results Total electricit
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Box 18.2: Performance of India's Co
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1970s hydropower accounted for arou
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35 Figure 18.8: India's Energy Savi
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to compressed natural gas (CNG), wh
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Delhi has encountered problems rela
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Policy Scenario, it is assumed that
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Figure 18.11: Change in Investment
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tariffs in the services and industr
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Background and Assumptions There ar
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period by passenger cars, is the ma
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Box 19.1: The Vehicle Stock in the
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Oil and Gas The production profile
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Electricity Electricity generation
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in 2030 will still be low, at 2.7 t
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and rising emissions of CO 2 , NO x
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Outlook for Clean Cooking Fuel and
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focus of government policy is to ex
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The government has focused many pro
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Expanding Access to Electricity in
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stoves. According to the World Heal
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Subsidies on Kerosene and LPG, and
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Uttar Pradesh (4.4 million) and Wes
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ANNEXES
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Reference Scenario: World Energy de
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Alternative Policy Scenario: World
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Reference Scenario: China Energy de
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Alternative Policy Scenario: China
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Reference Scenario: India Energy de
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Alternative Policy Scenario: India
Page 606 and 607:
Reference Scenario: OECD Energy dem
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Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
Page 610 and 611:
Reference Scenario: United States E
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Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific En
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Reference Scenario: Japan Energy de
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Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ene
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Reference Scenario: European Union
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Reference Scenario: Transition econ
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Reference Scenario: Russia Energy d
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Reference Scenario: Developing coun
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Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
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Reference Scenario: Latin America E
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Reference Scenario: Middle East Ene
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Reference Scenario: Africa Energy d
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ANNEX B ABBREVIATIONS, DEFINITIONS
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Coal-bed Methane Methane found in c
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Other Renewables Includes geotherma
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international marine bunkers, excep
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Rest of Developing Asia Developing
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IAEA IEA IGCC IMF IOC IPCC IPP LDV
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ANNEX D REFERENCES Introduction Int
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Stevens, C. and J. Kennan (2006), H
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— (2004), World Energy Outlook 20
Page 655 and 656:
International Energy Agency (IEA, 2
Page 657 and 658:
Chew Chong Siang (2006), Current St
Page 659 and 660:
Williams, R. O., A. McKane et al. (
Page 661 and 662:
Garg, A. et al. (2006), “The sect
Page 663 and 664:
Malti, G. (2007), Carbon Capture an
Page 665:
Pachauri, S. (2007), An Energy Anal
Page 674:
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