International Review of Waste Management Policy - Department of ...

have stabilised over the last six years. It would appear, therefore, that the rate of
population growth is an important driver of household waste growth.
Curtis et al have sought to estimate determinants of household waste growth in
Ireland. 850 This work is of interest since it is one of few attempts to elicit such
parameters in Ireland. The authors derive an income elasticity of demand for waste
services of 1.08. They themselves note that figures in excess of 1 are highly unusual
in the literature. This is the figure used in the ISus model to predict future waste
growth. This, coupled with estimates of growth for the economy going forward,
suggests considerable – one might say, worryingly high - growth in household waste,
increasing to around 3.2 million tonnes in 2025.
It seems likely that countries experiencing rapid growth from relatively low levels
(compared with the most wealthy nations), as Ireland has done, would tend to exhibit
high income elasticities of demand for waste services. However, these might well
show some decline as consumption patterns adjust to higher levels of real per capita
disposable income. Generally, constant elasticity models become less reliable over
non marginal changes in prices or incomes. We doubt that this parameter would
remain at this level in the future (and one might doubt the data where it suggests it
has been this high, even in the past).
51.1.2 Commercial Waste
697
� Commercial waste 9% per annum over the 12 year period
� Commercial waste 8% per annum over the last 6 years
Commercial waste growth has been a staggering 9% per annum over the same 12
year period. It is difficult to explain this rapid growth solely through appeal to
economic growth, especially given the flat ‘per household waste’ quantity over recent
years.
This could reflect problems, referred to in EPA Reports and in discussion with EPA
officials, of classification of waste types. However, it seems irregular misclassification
could lead to such a (consistently) large growth rate, not least since some
classification problems might be expected to move waste in and out of one
classification from one year to the next.
The stark fact remains that according to the available data, commercial waste has
more than tripled over a twelve year period. There must be questions to be asked
regarding the accuracy of the growth rates reported above. To what extent are these
genuine, or do they suggest inconsistencies, across time periods, in reporting? Is
commercial waste increasingly being mixed with other materials? Is this leading to
over-reporting of commercial waste?
In 1995, commercial waste was only around 35% of household waste. Now, the
quantities are converging. The growth in commercial waste is well above reported
850 John Curtis, Seán Lyons and Abigail O’Callaghan-Platt (2009) Managing Household Waste in
Ireland: Behavioural Parameters and Policy Options, ESRI Working Paper 295, July 2009.
International Review of Waste Policy: Annexes