International Review of Waste Management Policy - Department of ...

Figure 59-11: Evolution in Quantities of Household Waste, Residual Waste, and
Separately Collected Waste (kg per inhabitant)
Source: Danny Willle (2006) The Polluter Pays: Key to Successful Household Waste Policy,
Presentation to ACR+ Conference, Dublin Castle, 19th May 2006.
In terms of waste prevention the question is: to what degree has the per capita
residual waste target reduced arisings versus simply stimulating greater recovery
from the waste stream? The data suggests that the reduction in residual waste per
capita has come substantially from an increase in recycling. This is shown in Figure
59-11 above.
Waste Arisings grew by an average of 2.9% per annum over the period 1991 – 2002.
However, in the period since 1998, when the first target was introduced, the growth in
arisings has slowed considerably. In the 1998-2004 period, the line of best fit
suggests an average growth rate of 0.42%, though the correlation of this fit is poor. In
the period 2000-2004, the line of best fit actually suggests a decrease of 0.44% per
annum, though again, the correlation is poor, and inspection by eye suggests zero net
growth over the period.
While the measures taken by OVAM have clearly not reduced overall arisings in
absolute terms, the question can be asked as to whether the rate of growth might
have been different in a counterfactual scenario. This is difficult to say, but if the
trend from 1991-2002 had continued from 1998, the arisings per inhabitant would
have been 628kg per inhabitant by 2004. The policy could, under this assumption,
have been responsible for a 10.8% reduction in overall waste quantities over the 6
year period.
Even here, however, the matter is not so clear. Generally, the pre-1998 evolution
shows that prior to this date, overall waste arisings were increasing as recycling rates
improved. This may well have been due to the roll out of biowaste collections to
households, generating ‘above background’ growth rates. Notwithstanding this fact,
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