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l'istituto italiano per gli studi filosofici e gli studi di economia

l'istituto italiano per gli studi filosofici e gli studi di economia

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esources to invest in a portfolio of unit contingent contracts. Let a (x)<br />

be the amount invested in security x. Then the investments satisfy the<br />

constraint<br />

S a (x) = A . (2)<br />

x<br />

When the actual state is realized, the in<strong>di</strong>vidual receives, Y = a (X).<br />

Suppose that the utility function is logarithmic. In the absence of<br />

information, the investor maximizes<br />

S p (x) ln a (x) ,<br />

x<br />

subject to (2). Then a (x) = Ap(x) for all x. The maximum expected<br />

utility is<br />

where, for any random variabie, X,<br />

ln A - H(X), (3)<br />

H (X) = – S p (x) ln p (x)<br />

x<br />

which happens to be the Shannon measure of information. The certainty-equivalent<br />

(i.e., the income which, if obtained for certain,<br />

would have the same utility as the above optimal gamble) is<br />

YC = Ae – H (X) (4)<br />

which is proportional to A. There is therefore essentially a constant<br />

rate of return to investible resources.<br />

Now suppose the assumptions of Bayesian normal sampling are<br />

fulfilled, so that X is normally <strong>di</strong>stributed and that DM can choose a<br />

326

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