The PLA at Home and Abroad - Strategic Studies Institute - U.S. Army

Challenge Ahead: In Search of the Next
Commander in Chief.
Hu’s smooth command of the gun is based on his
efforts to build a relative balance of different groupings
at the apex of power. Additionally, his ability to
avoid major policy disputes also makes it easier for
his control of the military. At the moment and in the
next few years, the biggest challenge for Hu to run
the military is the selection of a new commander in
chief acceptable to PLA soldiers, which has become
routine with unavoidable cycles of succession. In a
way, leadership consensus on social and economic
policies is comparatively easy to reach but not on the
issue of choosing an heir-apparent, which is more
strategic and forces every top leader to take a position,
as it would have a major impact on faction interests.
What has not been discussed is one important reason
for Hu’s smooth consolidation of power, that is, there
had existed a general consensus on his succession arrangement
in the whole Party prior to his takeover.
Now, this is not the case, as there has not emerged an
undisputed “Mr. Right” to succeed him. Time is growing
short.
The first uncertainty is about the speculated Xi
Jinping (习近平)-Li Keqiang (李克强) race. Clearly, Xi
is strategically positioned to become the successor.
He ranked number one in the CC’s primary vote for
Politburo candidates in the lead-up to the 17th Party
Congress and this gave him a good deal of legitimacy
for the top job. 53 However, this top vote has not been
translated into a consensus on Xi’s ascent, which may
have an unpredictable impact on his final confirmation.
One of the reasons for Hu’s successful succession
is that he did not belong to any particular faction. Nor
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