The PLA at Home and Abroad - Strategic Studies Institute - U.S. Army

in Party affairs. In contrast, Li is basically a Party technocrat,
interested more in China’s economic management
as shown by his choice of studying economics as
his Ph.D. major. Going for the job of executive premier
in charge of the national economy was his own suggestion
to the Party leadership. 55 Xi and Li have got
the jobs that suit them well, although the difference is
huge when it comes to the finalization of the succession
plan. If the claim is true that Li volunteered to go
for the post of premier, he might have already given
up the race, and this might have resolved a major challenge
in the arranged succession and avoided a potential
power struggle inherent in the dual candidature.
On the other hand, it may also be an accident that
Xi ranks fifth and Li sixth in the 17th Supreme Peoples’
Court (SPC), as traditionally the person running
Party daily affairs is bureaucratically placed before the
person running daily affairs of the State Council. In a
way, it is not Xi ahead of Li, but his portfolio ahead of
Li’s. This means that if the final choice is sought on an
individual basis, Li is not yet out of the race. Today,
Li’s job is probably tougher than Xi’s in that China’s
economy has been at a crossroads. If a strong first vice
premier capably assists a relatively weak premier in
the next few years and succeeds in rectifying China’s
economic ills, he remains a viable contender. 56 Yet as
time passes, swapping the sequence of the first and
second candidates would cause an even more tremendous
backlash against the Party. Li’s chances are becoming
increasingly smaller.
The second uncertainty is the PLA’s position on Xi.
Logically, this will remain unknown until Hu makes
his final decision. Certainly, Hu will constantly consult
with the senior officers in the process. The Fourth
Plenary Session of the CC (September 15-18) did not
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