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The PLA at Home and Abroad - Strategic Studies Institute - U.S. Army

The PLA at Home and Abroad - Strategic Studies Institute - U.S. Army

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v<strong>at</strong>ion th<strong>at</strong> would result would inevitably bring profound<br />

challenges for the United St<strong>at</strong>es.<br />

In terms of meeting those challenges, U.S. str<strong>at</strong>egic<br />

planners would do well to better underst<strong>and</strong> the<br />

broader trends <strong>and</strong> benchmarks of China’s ongoing<br />

defense reform. To d<strong>at</strong>e, the study of China’s military<br />

moderniz<strong>at</strong>ion has been largely domin<strong>at</strong>ed by investig<strong>at</strong>ive<br />

research <strong>and</strong> reportage—based on a close scrutiny<br />

of defense rel<strong>at</strong>ed liter<strong>at</strong>ure—to track capabilities<br />

<strong>and</strong> their specific str<strong>at</strong>egic implic<strong>at</strong>ions. <strong>The</strong> hallmark<br />

of this approach is the Pentagon’s annual military<br />

report on the <strong>PLA</strong>, <strong>and</strong> the result is usually surprise<br />

when a new system or capability surfaces. As defense<br />

reform proceeds, <strong>and</strong> especially as CMI specifically<br />

picks up steam, such str<strong>at</strong>egic shockers will emerge<br />

with gre<strong>at</strong>er frequency. More importantly, advances<br />

in China’s defense industry input will grow harder to<br />

detect <strong>and</strong> evalu<strong>at</strong>e with several consequences. First, it<br />

will be increasingly difficult to parse the specific military<br />

applic<strong>at</strong>ion of China’s highly dual-use space or<br />

telecommunic<strong>at</strong>ions infrastructure. 152 Moreover, China’s<br />

growing capability to conduct inform<strong>at</strong>ion-based<br />

warfare will largely depend on breakthroughs in more<br />

amorphous C4ISR components, many of which will be<br />

difficult to assess. 153 Finally, <strong>and</strong> perhaps most significantly,<br />

tracking technological progress for n<strong>at</strong>ional<br />

defense purposes, will be complic<strong>at</strong>ed as CMI blurs<br />

the lines between civilian <strong>and</strong> military entities particip<strong>at</strong>ing<br />

in weapons R&D <strong>and</strong> productions.<br />

All of these factors will require additional methods<br />

to better measure <strong>and</strong> assess defense industry reform<br />

<strong>at</strong> a systemic level. One example is to use a more<br />

traditional approach. R<strong>at</strong>her than just looking <strong>at</strong> the<br />

end-product weapon system (or the defense institute<br />

responsible for applying a technology or developing<br />

a core component), one may need to look further up<br />

519

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