Hela boken - SOM-institutet - Göteborgs universitet

Donald Granberg
The data can be used to test a variety of hypotheses. For example, it is quite
com mon for political scientists to assume that attitudes regarding foreign policy are
more unstable than domestic policy, in part because of the remoteness of foreign
affairs. In this analysis, each issue was categorized by two experts who had no
trouble deciding domestic or foreign. The exception was proposals to take in more
or fewer refugees. Thus, the analysis omits them. There were 167 cases involving a
question of domestic policy and 60 concerning foreign policy. For domestic policy,
the correlation was +.96 for both the means and the balance measure, compared to
+.91 for the foreign policy. Thus, there is a hint of support for the hypothesis.
It deserves mention, however, that there were some relatively volatile domestic
issues. In fact, the most volatile issue during this period appears to be the proposal
to “Direct more of health care into the private sector.” This idea received the most
support in 1990 (mean=+0.32), but by 1994 it had shifted to about the same level
in the negative direction (-0.33). Cases like this are clearly showing some interesting
and important trends across time (cf. Nilsson, 2000). So it deserves emphasis that
the thesis here is not that public opinion is so stable as to be called stagnant. Rather
the idea is that in general public opinions tend to be stable and, in most instances
change rather gradually.
Sometimes people are prone to exaggeration, like when the suicide attack on the
New York Trade Towers occurred in September 11, 2001. Some people were quick,
most likely too quick, to suggest, “This changes everything!” Most likely this sort of
hyperbole is neither helpful nor accurate. Time and reflection are needed to assess
what changes could be expected in light of this critical event.
References
Converse, Philip (1964). “The Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Publics.” In David
Apter (ed.) Ideology and Discontent, pp. 206-261.
Gilljam, Mikael and Donald Granberg. 1995. “Intense Minorities and the Pattern of
Public Opinion.” International Journal of Public Opinion Research 7:199-210.
Granberg, Donald and Sören Holmberg. 1988. The Political System Matters: Social
Psychology and Voting Behavior in Sweden and the United States. Cambridge
University Press.
Inglehart, Ronald. 1985. “Aggregate Stability and Individual-Level Flux in Mass
Belief Systems: The Level of Analysis Paradox.” American Political Science Review
79: 97-116.
Krosnick, Jon. 1991. “Response Strategies for coping with the Cognitive Demands
of Attitude Measures in Surveys.” Applied Cognitive Psychology 5: 213-23.
Niemi, Richard and Anders Westholm. 1984. “Issues, Parties, and Attitudinal
Sta bil lity: A Comparative Study of Sweden and the United States.” Electoral
Studies 3: 65-83.
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