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25 ème Colloque de l’Association Internationale de Climatologie, Grenoble 2012documentée sur les cumuls annuels à la fin des années 1970 pourrait avoir été accompagnéepar une rupture négative concomitante des extrêmes. Cette hypothèse demande à être vérifiée.Pour ce faire, une analyse basée sur le concept de maximisation de la vraisemblance régionaleest en cours.Références bibliographiquesAllen M.R. & Ingram W.J., 2002 : Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle. Nature,419(6903), 224-232.Coles S., 2001 : An introduction to statistical modeling of extreme values. London, New York: Springer.Dai A. et al., 2004 : The recent Sahel drought is real. International Journal of Climatology, 24(11), 1323-1331.Di-Baldassarre G. et al., 2010 : Flood fatalities in Africa: From diagnosis to mitigation. Geophysical ResearchLetters, 37(22).Dore M.H., 2005 : Climate change and changes in global precipitation patterns: What do we know? EnvironmentInternational, 31, 1167-1181.Emori S. & Brown S.J., 2005 : Dynamic and thermodynamic changes in mean and extreme precipitation underchanged climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L17706.Held I.M. & Soden B.J., 2006 : Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. Journal ofClimate, 19(21), 5686–5699.Lebel T. & Ali A., 2009 : Recent trends in the Central and Western Sahel rainfall regime (1990-2007). Journalof Hydrology, 375(1-2), 52–64.Lebel T. et al., 1992 : Rainfall estimation in the Sahel: the EPSAT-NIGER experiment. Hydrological Sciences,37, 201-215.Min S.-K. et al., 2011 : Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes. Nature, 470(7334), 378-381.Nicholson S., 2005 : On the question of the « recovery » of the rains in the West African Sahel. Journal of AridEnvironments, 63, 615-641.O’Gorman P.A. & Schneider T., 2009 : The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulationsof 21st-century climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106(35), 14773.Sun Y. et al., 2007 : How Often Will It Rain? Journal of Climate, 20(19), 4801-4818.Tarhule A., 2005 : Damaging Rainfall and Flooding: The Other Sahel Hazards. Climatic Change, 72(3), 355-377.Trenberth K.E. et al., 2003 : The Changing Character of Precipitation. Bulletin of the American MeteorologicalSociety, 84(9), 1205-1217.Tschakert P. et al., 2010 : Floods in the Sahel: an analysis of anomalies, memory, and anticipatory learning.Climatic Change, 103(3-4), 471-502.Tschakert P., 2007 : Views from the vulnerable: Understanding climatic and other stressors in the Sahel. GlobalEnvironmental Change, 17(3-4), 381-396.Voss R., May W. & Roeckner E., 2002 : Enhanced resolution modelling study on anthropogenic climate change:changes in extremes of the hydrological cycle. International Journal of Climatology, 22(7), 755-777.600
25 ème Colloque de l’Association Internationale de Climatologie, Grenoble 2012IMPACT DES VARIATIONS CLIMATIQUES SUR LA PHÉNOLOGIEAU SEIN DE DEUX ZONES ATELIERS : ALPES ET ARMORIQUEBenoît PERRIMOND 1 , Sylvain BIGOT 1 et Hervé QUENOL 21Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 /CNRS/G-INP/IRD, Laboratoire d'étude des Transferts en Hydrologieet Environnement - LTHE UMR 5564, BP 53, 460 rue de la Piscine, F-38041 Grenoble cedex 9, France.perrimond.benoit@ujf-grenoble.fr ; sylvain.bigot@ujf-grenoble.fr2COSTEL UMR 6554 CNRS (LETG) - FR/IFR CAREN, Université Rennes 2 - Place du Recteur Henri Le Moal -CS 24 307, Rennes, F-35043 cedex, France. herve.quenol@uhb.frRésumé : En France, les Zones Ateliers (ZA) du CNRS sont des espaces privilégiés pour la plupart des étudesportant sur les écosystèmes et leurs interactions bioclimatiques. Afin de mieux comprendre et d'anticiper lespotentielles modifications des principaux stades phénologiques de la végétation (débourrement, sénescence, …)imposées par des variations climatiques interannuelles, ce travail étudie certaines relations entre le climat et ladynamique végétale (vue au travers d’un indice de végétation tel que le NDVI) à l'échelle régionale, pour deuxtypes de paysages différents, l’un en milieu montagnard (la ZA Alpes) et l’autre en milieu côtier (la ZAArmorique). Les analyses portent sur les principales variables climatiques (température et précipitation)contrôlant la dynamique inter- et intra-annuelle de la végétation.Mots-clés : Zones Ateliers, réanalyses SAFRAN, phénologie.Abstract: Effects of climate change on phenology in two French LTER (Alps and Brittany).French LTER (Long Term Ecological Research site) from the French National Centre for Scientific Research areprivileged field for ecosystem and bioclimatic relationship study. To better understand and anticipate potentialvariation of main phenological stage for vegetation, this study examine relationship between climate andphenological stage (through NDVI data) at a regional and seasonal scale for two different landscapes: coastalfield (ZA Armorique – LTER Armorican) and alpine field (ZA Alpes – LTER Alps). Analysis is based oncomparison of main climatic variable (temperature and precipitation) and phenological stage.Keywords: Long Term Ecological Reseach network, SAFRAN-France reanalysis, phenology.IntroductionDans le cadre du changement climatique, il apparaît évident de mener des études d'impactspour caractériser et préciser les nombreuses conséquences de ces variations climatiques sur laplanète. Depuis plusieurs années, on observe déjà un changement climatique etsimultanément, une modification du cycle de vie à la fois chez les plantes et les animaux(IPCC, 2007). En Europe, la végétation caduque redémarre plus vite en début de printemps etles saisons végétatives durent plus longtemps à cause d'une chute des feuilles plus tardive(Menzel et al., 2006). Ce phénomène, s'il est encore amplifié, pourrait avoir des conséquencespositives ou négatives pour les écosystèmes (par exemple, la désynchronisation des périodesde pollinisation ou le changement de répartition spécifique des espèces) et pour l'homme(possibilité d'augmenter les rendements agricoles ou le nombre de cultures par an, évolutiondes calendriers agricoles et itinéraires techniques). Mais les relations entre cycles de lavégétation et les variations climatiques sont encore mal comprises.Afin de mieux cerner ces interactions, une comparaison de la variabilité phénologique pourdeux types d'occupation du sol – agricole et naturel – et de la variabilité climatiquesaisonnière est proposée dans cette étude. Les deux zones d'intérêt présentent descaractéristiques géographiques et climatiques très différentes ; l'Armorique est soumise à unclimat océanique avec un sol principalement occupé par des terrains agricoles (prairie etculture) alors que l’espace alpin se caractérise par un climat montagnard et un sol naturel etforestier, ainsi que des espaces prairiaux.601
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