Russel-Research-Method-in-Anthropology

Qualitative Data Analysis II: Models and Matrices 523
Predicting a dependent variable (like planting corn instead of some other
crop) from some independent variables (like a farmer’s financial condition or
family size) is the goal of statistical analysis, which is the subject of the next
few chapters. But ethnographic decision modeling is based on asking questions,
sorting out some logical rules about how the questions have to be
ordered, and laying out the order in a picture (like a tree diagram) or in writing.
It is, in other words, entirely qualitative. As with all cognitive research
methods, we don’t know if EDMs just predict behavior or if they also reflect
the way people think about things. The jury is still out on that one. But getting
it right 80 to 90% of the time is as good as it gets in the social sciences. Ethnographic
decision modeling is a qualitative method with real power.
How to Build EDMs
Gladwin (1989) lays out the method for building an ethnographic decision
tree model. First, of course, you have to decide on the decision you are studying
and what the alternatives are in that decision. I’ll use the decision ‘‘to
make your 8 a.m. class or not’’ as an example. The alternatives are yes and
no.
A grand tour ethnographic question like ‘‘Tell me about why people go to
class or skip 8 a.m. classes’’ will get you a lot of information about the alternatives
and the reasons for the alternatives, especially from expert informants.
The major alternatives are: Get up and go to class, get up and do something
else, sleep in. The ‘‘get up and do something else’’ alternative consists of a
list: lounge around, watch old soaps on the tube, study for an exam later in the
day, and so on.
To make your ethnographic knowledge about the decision more formal—
that is, to build an EDM—track down Alex, a respondent who has an 8 a.m.
class and ask: ‘‘Did you make your 8 a.m. class today?’’ When he answers,
ask him: ‘‘Why [did you] [didn’t you] go to that class?’’ Suppose he says ‘‘I
went to class today because I always go to class unless I’m sick.’’ Ask him:
‘‘Were you sick this morning?’’ Record his answer and draw a tree diagram
(also called a dendrogram), like the one in figure 18.1, to represent his decision.
Figure 18.1 accounts perfectly for Alex’s decision. It has to; it contains
nothing more than the information from the ethnographic interview with Alex.
Now go to your second respondent, Sheila, who says that yes, she went to
her 8 a.m. class. Why? ‘‘It’s a really tough class,’’ she says, ‘‘If I miss one of
those classes, I’ll never catch up.’’
Every reason for your respondents’ decisions becomes a question you can
ask. Use what you learned from your interview with Alex and ask Sheila: ‘‘Do