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OGA<br />

1'6P S~eR~l'fle6MllnHXl<br />

EO 14. Ie)<br />

30. (U) General William Westmoreland, USA,<br />

Report on the War (As of June 1(68): Section II,<br />

Report on Operations <strong>in</strong> South Vietnam, January<br />

1964-June 1968 (Wash<strong>in</strong>gton, D.C.: US GPO, 1968),<br />

lL1~<br />

32. (U) GIbson, 156. (U) Amencan projections<br />

on how long the war would last were tied to the U.S.<br />

troop ceil<strong>in</strong>gs. In April 1967, General Westmoreland<br />

came to Wash<strong>in</strong>gton and met with President Johnson<br />

and the Chairman, .JCS, General Earle Wheeler.<br />

Westmoreland outl<strong>in</strong>ed his beliefthat at current levels<br />

(470,000) the war would last for five yers. If the ceil<strong>in</strong>g<br />

was raised to 565,000 troops, then the communists<br />

could be beaten <strong>in</strong> three years. If he could have<br />

665,000 troops, another four and a halfdivisions, then<br />

the war might be ended <strong>in</strong> two years. These projections<br />

presumed that the North Vietnamese would not<br />

<strong>in</strong>crease their troop strength. They also h<strong>in</strong>ged on the<br />

attrition rates suffered by the PAVN and NLF formations<br />

that Westmoreland was claim<strong>in</strong>g. See United<br />

States-Vietnam Relations, 1945-1967, 82-84.<br />

33. (U) Ronnie Ford, 55.<br />

35. (U) Ronnie Ford, 57.<br />

36. (U) Karnow, 536.<br />

37. (U) Turley, 99; For descriptions of the August<br />

1945 Viet M<strong>in</strong>h takeover, see Robert Hanyok,<br />

"Guerrillas <strong>in</strong> the Mist: COJ'vlINT and the Formation<br />

and Evolution of the Viet M<strong>in</strong>h, 1941-1945,"<br />

Cryptologic Quarterly, Volume 15, Number 1, Spr<strong>in</strong>g<br />

1996,108-110, and Schulz<strong>in</strong>ger, 17-19.<br />

39. (U) Turley, 100. (U) Not that Giap was overly<br />

worried about troop losses. His formulation of the dau<br />

tranli ("struggle") strategy guaranteed high losses; but<br />

Giap was objective-oriented, and such losses were susta<strong>in</strong>able<br />

only if victory was certa<strong>in</strong>. For a critique of<br />

Giap's Tet strategy see Douglas Pike, PAVN: People's<br />

Army of Vietnam (New York: Da Capo Press, 1986),<br />

226-7.<br />

40.~lA 0487/70, 29; Wirtz, 69.<br />

41. (U) General William C. Westmoreland, USA,<br />

"What Did the North Vietnamese Hope to Ga<strong>in</strong> with<br />

Their 1968 Tet Offensive," Vietnam, February 1992,<br />

62.<br />

42. (U) Capta<strong>in</strong> Ronnie Ford, USA, "Hanoi's<br />

Intent: Khe Sanh and the Tet Offensive," American<br />

Intelligence Journal, Vol 16, Nos. 2/3,<br />

Autumn/W<strong>in</strong>ter 1995,67.<br />

Page 350<br />

/<br />

EO 1.4. (c)<br />

1'6P S~eR~1'Jfe6MINl';;Xl

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