samlet årgang - Økonomisk Institut - Københavns Universitet

THE CONSUMPTION OF ALCOHOL IN THE SCANDINAVIAN COUNTRIES 73
Alc./cap.
Alc./cap.
0,25
0,20
0,15
0,10
0,05
0,00
-0,05
-0,10
-0,15
-0,20
-0,25
-0,20 -0,15 -0,10 -0,05 0,00 0,05 0,10 0,15
GDP/cap.
Figure 5. Scatter plot of real GDP per capita and alcohol consumption per capita
(15 years+) for Denmark, 1893-2002 (values in log differences).
0,3
0,2
0,1
0,0
-0,1
-0,2
-0,3
-0,4
-0,5
-0,15 -0,10 -0,05 0,00
GDP/cap.
0,05 0,10 0,15
Figure 6. Scatter plot of real GDP per capita and alcohol consumption per capita
(15 years+) for Norway, 1865-2002 (values in log differences).
Note: A few outliers with extreme values are not included in the graph.
When using values in log differences, only short-run relationships are revealed as information
about level values are filtered away via the difference operator.
The figures 5-7 reveal that there is no doubt about a pro-cyclical relationship between
the growth rates of GDP and alcohol consumption. This result is also found for
sub-samples of the data – even for data related to the 19 th century – and therefore not
much evidence is found in favour of a hypothesis of 'heavy drinking in harsh times' as