samlet årgang - Økonomisk Institut - Københavns Universitet

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NATIONALØKONOMISK TIDSSKRIFT 2005. NR. 1
Table 2. Distribution of Observed Duration (901 Spells in Total).
Program Type
Short Hazard No. Completed No. Censored No. Total No. at Risk
1 0.0289 5 37 42 173
2 0.1603 21 23 44 131
3 0.7586 66 6 72 87
4 0.9333 14 1 15 15
5 – 0 0 0 0
6 – 0 0 0 0
7 – 0 0 0 0
8 – 0 0 0 0
Medium Hazard No. Completed No. Censored No. Total No. at Risk
1 0.0294 12 60 72 408
2 0.0536 18 43 61 336
3 0.3309 91 27 118 275
4 0.6369 100 19 119 157
5 0.5263 20 6 26 38
6 0.1667 2 4 6 12
7 0.1667 1 3 4 6
8 0.5000 1 1 2 2
Long Hazard No. Completed No. Censored No. Total No. at Risk
1 0.0125 4 48 52 320
2 0.0336 9 34 43 268
3 0.0933 21 22 43 225
4 0.0714 13 12 25 182
5 0.1146 18 6 24 157
6 0.2406 32 14 46 133
7 0.2184 19 16 35 87
8 0.2692 14 38 52 52
market earnings (1990 prices) are roughly 32,000 DKK for the average student.
Expected wage (average wage of same degree holders) is about 80 DKK per hour and
expected unemployment degree (average unemployment degree of same degree holders)
is 31.5.
Table 2 shows the distribution of observed durations by program type. The information
presented in this table is used to calculate the Kaplan-Meier estimates of the
hazard rates of completion, which are shown graphically in Figure 1. Note that the
maximum observed duration of short programs is 4 periods, while the maximum
observed duration for medium and long programs is a spell length of 8.
According to Figure 2, non-parametric Kaplan-Meier estimates of hazard rates are
shown separately for short, medium and long programs. The hazard rate of completion
rises sharply between 2 and 3 years in the program in the case of short programs i.e. as
expected, short programs finish fast. For medium programs, the hazard rates shows a