Small Decentralized Hydropower Program National ... - Cd3wd.com

costo de la oportunidad para utilizar el dinero en
metodos diferentes al que se contempla. Fre-
cuentemente, esto consiste en el costo de efectuar
prestamos 0 el (-osi.(L sopesacio de1 capital mediante
las fuentes tanto de deudas coma de equidad. En el
case de 10s pequenos proyectos hidroelectricos en la
America Latina, el tipo de descuento por lo general
sera establecido al costo de1 Banco Sundial u otra
organization financiera internaciona! o seran 10s tipos
de descuento standard uiiiizados por 10s gobiernos
auspiciadores.
El period0 de tiempo cubiertti por el an&lisis es
otro parametro clave en la ejecucidn de1 analisis
economic0 y financiero. Para el anAlisis financiero, el
petiodo de1 analisis es generalmente el petiodo de la
financiacion. Consecuentemente, 10s prestamos son
amortizados y se considera el flujo de efectivos
durante el period0 de financiacion. A veces se utiliza
la duration util de1 proyecto para 10s calculos de1
analisis econbmico. Se considera que la duration util
de 10s proyectos hidraulicos es de 50 anos por lo
menos y en algunos paises, hasta de 100 anos.
Tambien son consideraciones importantes el trata-
miento de !a inflation y la escalation real. Inflation
es el porcentaje de aumento en general de 10s niveles
de precios. El porcentaje de la escalation real es el
porcentaje de aumento anual en un costo y es in-
dependiente de, y adicional a la inflation. La
escalation real resulta coma consecuencia de1 agota-
miento de la fuentc de recurscs, aumentos de la
demanda con abastecimiento limitado, y otros
factores.
El porcentaje de escalation aparente es el porcen-
taje anual total de aumento en el costo. Incluidos en
el porcentaje de escalation aparente estin 10s efectos
de la inflation y de la escalation real. El porcentaje
de la escalation aparente esti descrita en la ecuacibn
siguiente:
(I+ e) = (l+ e,)x(i+ i)
e = porcenfaje de escalation aparente
e, = porcentaje de escalation real
i = porcentaje de inflation
El anfilisis economico debe dar cuenta de la
escalacidn real cuando sea aplicable. Los preci.os de
energia alterna, particularmente de 10s combustibles
derivados de1 petrdleo constituyen un Brea donde 10s
analistas frecuentemente calculan la escalation real.
Se debe notar que la magnitud de la escalacidn real
es difkil de establecer, coma lo es el porcentaje
apropiado de inflation que utilizar. En este sentido,
103
America, the discount rate generally will be set
at the cost of the World Bank or other internationl
financing institutions or will be standard
rafes ucad “VU h\r “J x.*yvr =nmncnring U”I I I governments.
The iength of analysis is another key
parameter in performing economic and financial
analysis. For financial analysis, the period of
analysis is generally the financing period. Consequently,
loans are amortized and cash flows are
considered over the financing period. For
economic analysis, the project’s useful life is
sometimes used for calculations. For hydro projects,
useful life is usually considered to be at
least 50 years and, in some countries,
years.
up to 100
The treatment of Inffation and real escalation
also are important considemtions. Inflation is the
rate of increase in general price levels. The real
escalation rate is the annual rate of increase in a
cost and is independent of, and in addition to, inflation.
Real escalation results from resource
depletion, increased demand with limited supply,
and other factors.
The apparent escalation r;te is the total annual
rats oi increase in a cost. Included in the
apparent escalation rate are the effects of inflation
and real escalation. The apparent escalation
rate is described by the following equation:
(1 + e) = (1 + er) x (1 + i)
where:
e = the apparent escalation rate
er = the real escalation rate
j = the inflation rate
The economic analysis should account for real
escalation when applicable. Alternate energy
prices, particularly from petroleum based fuels,
are an area where analysts frequently account
for real escalation. It should be noted that the
magnitude of real escalation is difficult to
establish, as is the appropriate inflation rate to
use. In this regard, guidelines are usually
available from national governments or international
financing agencies.
It is important to maintain comparability between
assumptions concerning inflation and the
discount rate. If an analysis is made where inflation
is neglected in future costs and benefits, inflation
also should be neglected in the discount
rate (which is frequently
In general:
the cost of money).
(1 + r) = (1 + x) x (1 + i)