World Energy Outlook 2006

mb/d
Figure 3.8: Non-Conventional Oil Production and Related Natural Gas
Needs in Canada
5
4
3
2
1
0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Bitumen
Synthetic oil
Natural gas consumption
0
2030
Trade
Inter-regional oil trade is set to grow rapidly over the projection period, as the
gap between indigenous production and demand widens in all WEO regions.
The volume of trade rises from 40 mb/d in 2005 to 51 mb/d in 2015 and
63 mb/d in 2030. The Middle East will see the biggest increase in net exports,
from 20 mb/d in 2005 to 35 mb/d in 2030 (Figure 3.9).
All the major net oil-importing regions import more oil at the end of the
projection period, both in absolute terms and as a proportion of their total oil
consumption. The increase is sharpest for developing Asia, where imports jump
from 48% of demand in 2004 to 73% in 2030 (Table 3.4). Among the three
OECD regions, Europe’s dependence grows most rapidly, from 58% to 80%,
because of both rising demand and falling indigenous production. The OECD
as a whole imports two-thirds of its oil needs in 2030 compared with 56%
today.
Growing oil exports from the Middle East will focus attention on the world’s
vulnerability to oil-supply disruptions, not least because the bulk of the
additional exports will involve transport along maritime routes susceptible to
piracy, terrorist attacks or accidents. At present, more than 17 mb/d of crude oil
and products flow through the Straits of Hormuz at the mouth of the Arabian
Gulf – the world’s busiest maritime oil-shipping route. If it were blocked, only
a small share of the oil could be transported through alternative routes.
Moreover, much of this oil is subsequently shipped through the Straits of
Malacca – already the scene of repeated acts of piracy – to Far East markets.
100 World Energy Outlook 2006 - THE REFERENCE SCENARIO
30
25
20
15
10
5
bcm
© OECD/IEA, 2007