World Energy Outlook 2006

Inter-Regional Trade
In the Alternative Policy Scenario, all the major net oil-importing regions –
including all three OECD regions and developing Asia – continue to become
more dependent on oil imports by the end of the projection period than they
were in 2005 (Table 7.5). The volume of inter-regional trade accordingly
continues to expand – but considerably less than in the Reference Scenario.
Indeed, the differences between the two scenarios are significant, particularly for
the countries of the OECD. In sharp contrast with the Reference Scenario, where
OECD oil-import needs continue to increase throughout the Outlook period to
a level of 35.7 mb/d in 2030, in the Alternative Policy Scenario oil imports into
the OECD reach a peak of 30.9 mb/d around 2015 and then begin to fall. By
contrast, oil imports into developing countries do continue to increase over the
period, albeit at a slower rate (Figure 7.7). China and India will temper their
imports compared to the Reference Scenario, but they will still rise significantly
– by 6.6 mb/d from 2005 to 2030, reaching 9.6 mb/d in 2030 for China and
rising by 2.3 mb/d from 2005 to 2030, reaching 4.1 mb/d in 2030 for India.
Table 7.5: Net Oil Imports in Main Importing Regions (mb/d)
Alternative Policy Reference
Scenario Scenario
2005 2015 2030 2015 2030
OECD 27.6 30.9 30.5 32.7 35.7
North America 11.1 12.1 11.9 13.0 15.0
Europe 8.8 11.0 10.8 11.5 12.2
Pacific 7.7 7.9 7.8 8.2 8.5
Developing Asia 7.1 11.7 17.8 13.0 21.7
China 3.0 5.6 9.6 6.3 11.8
India 1.8 2.7 4.1 2.9 4.7
Rest of developing Asia 2.3 3.3 4.1 3.8 5.2
European Union 10.9 12.2 11.7 12.7 13.0
Exports by producers in the Middle East, and OPEC producers generally,
fall markedly compared with the Reference Scenario, but not by as much
as production. This is because domestic demand in these countries falls
in response to new measures to curb oil use, freeing up more oil for export.
Nevertheless, the call on OPEC supply still increases from 33.6 mb/d in
2005 to 38.8 mb/d in 2015, highlighting the need to expand production
capacity.
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© OECD/IEA, 2007