World Energy Outlook 2006

Scenario. This is because significant cost reductions would be needed for these
technologies to become commercially available and widely deployed. It is also
hard to predict if or when commercialisation might occur. For this reason,
consideration of carbon capture and storage (Box 7.2), second-generation
biofuels, plug-in hybrids and other advanced technologies are excluded from
this scenario. This approach allows us to give an indication of the potential
energy and CO 2 savings achievable with incremental improvements in existing
technologies and their greater penetration of the market, but excluding major
breakthroughs. The potential impact of the emergence of such technologies is
nonetheless discussed in Chapter 10.
Box 7.2: Current Status and Development of CO 2 Capture and Storage
Technology
CO 2 capture and storage (CCS) involves separating the gas emitted when
fossil fuels are burned, transporting it to a storage location and storing it in
the earth or the ocean. Each of the component parts of the CCS process is
already in use in various places around the world, including in commercial
settings. However, there is relatively little experience in combining CO 2
capture, transport and storage into a fully-integrated CCS system.
CCS for large-scale power plants, the potential application of major interest,
still remains to be implemented (IPCC, 2005). For this reason, CCS is not
taken into account in the Alternative Policy Scenario. If all the eleven
currently planned and proposed large-scale integrated CCS projects were to
be successfully implemented, they would save up to 15 Mt of CO 2
emissions in 2015. This is equivalent to only 0.2% of coal-fired power
generation emissions in the Alternative Policy Scenario in 2015.
CCS increases the cost of fossil-based power generation. Consequently, it
will not be applied on a large scale without strong government support.
Recent IEA analysis shows that CCS could play a significant role by 2050
in limiting CO 2 emissions from coal-fired power plants in rapidly growing
economies with large coal reserves (IEA, 2006). This potential will be
exploited only if at least ten large-scale integrated coal-fired power plants
with CCS are demonstrated and commercialised within the next decade. A
key policy which could help CCS to penetrate the market is the
introduction of a carbon price.
Many of the policies considered in the Alternative Policy Scenario lead to faster
deployment of more efficient and less polluting technologies. As those
technologies are deployed under the stimulus of national policy, the unit cost
of the technology falls, so that it subsequently becomes available globally at a
Chapter 7 - Mapping a New Energy Future 171
7
© OECD/IEA, 2007