World Energy Outlook 2006

CHAPTER 9
DEEPENING THE ANALYSIS: RESULTS BY SECTOR
HIGHLIGHTS
� World electricity generation is 12% lower in 2030 than in the Reference
Scenario, mainly because of greater end-use efficiency. The shares of
renewables, nuclear power and combined heat and power are higher. The
efficiency of fossil-based generation is also higher. Global CO 2 emissions
from power plants are reduced by 22%, almost 4 gigatonnes. More than
half of this reduction occurs in developing countries. In the OECD, power
sector emissions are 6% lower than in 2004.
� Measures in the transport sector produce 7.6 mb/d of savings in global oil
demand by 2030, close to 60% of all the oil savings in the Alternative
Policy Scenario. Half of the savings come from just three regions – the
United States, China and the European Union – and more than two-thirds
from more efficient new vehicles. Improved conventional internal
combustion engines and the introduction of hybrid vehicles contribute
most to efficiency improvements in the Alternative Policy Scenario.
Biofuels use is also higher, helping to cut oil needs. Efficiency
improvements in new aircraft save 0.7 mb/d by 2030, but they cost more
than savings in other transport modes.
� Global industrial energy demand is 337 Mtoe, or 9%, lower in 2030 than
in the Reference Scenario. Reduced consumption of coal accounts for 38%
of total savings, while electricity accounts for 27%, oil for 23% and gas for
12%. Over half of global energy savings in the industry sector are the result
of more energy-efficient production of iron and steel, chemicals
and non-metallic products. Nearly three-quarters occur in non-OECD
countries. The savings in China alone exceed those in all OECD countries.
� The electricity saved in the residential and commercial sectors combined
accounts for two-thirds of all the electricity savings in the Alternative Policy
Scenario. By 2030, the savings in these two sectors avoid the need to build
412 GW of new capacity – slightly less than the total installed capacity of
China in 2004. Introduction of more efficient appliances, air-conditioning
and lighting account for the bulk of these savings. Stricter building codes
cut oil and gas use for heating by 10% by 2030. Most of these savings
occur in non-OECD countries, where the building stock and appliances
are expected to grow the most.
Chapter 9 - Deepening the Analysis: Results by Sector 213
© OECD/IEA, 2007