World Energy Outlook 2006

period. The fleet grows most rapidly in non-OECD countries, especially in
China, India and Latin America (Boeing, 2005; Airbus, 2004). Growth in
global aviation traffic, measured in revenue passenger-kilometres 9 , is faster than
fleet growth, at 4.7% per annum over the Outlook period. This is due to
improved aircraft load factors from increased aircraft occupancy and larger
aircraft.
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0%
Figure 9.13: Growth in Road and Aviation Oil Consumption
in the Reference Scenario
1980-1995 1995-2004 2004-2015 2015-2030
Road
Aviation
In the Reference Scenario, efficiency is assumed to continue to improve at
a rate of 1.8% per year, in line with past trends 10 . Fuel costs range from as
little as 10% to as much as 30% of the total operating costs of an aircraft,
depending on its age and efficiency and prevailing jet-kerosene prices. Fuel
prices are, therefore, a major factor in the fuel efficiency of aircraft:
prolonged high fuel prices encourage the use of newer, more efficient
aircraft. The potential for technical improvements in efficiency from turbine
technology, improved aerodynamics and weight reductions is estimated at
1.0% to 2.2% per year through to 2025 (Lee et al., 2001). Optimised air
traffic control and more direct air routes could yield 0.4% to 1% per year
improvement (IPCC, 1999).
9. Revenue passenger-kilometres, defined as the number of passengers multiplied by the number of
kilometres they fly, is a commonly used measure of air traffic.
10. Alternatives to kerosene-based fuels are promising but are a long-term option. Hydrogen fuel
requires new approaches to aircraft design and supply infrastructure (IEA, 2005).
232 World Energy Outlook 2006 - THE ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENARIO
© OECD/IEA, 2007