World Energy Outlook 2006

countries (for example in relation to emissions charges for aviation fuel use).
Multilateral lending institutions and other international organisations can
support non-OECD countries in devising and implementing new policies.
Governments can also facilitate access to advice and expertise on energy policymaking
and implementation and can improve conditions for technology
transfer.
Access to capital is a particular problem for smaller developing countries,
which, unlike China and India, are not besieged by investors seeking
opportunities. Programmes are required to promote technology transfer, to
help build the capacity to implement change and to offer opportunities for
collaborative research and development. Developing countries need to make
complementary changes to facilitate exchanges.
Going Beyond the Alternative Policy Scenario
Although the policies and measures in the Alternative Policy Scenario would
substantially improve energy security and reduce energy-related CO2 emissions
relative to the Reference Scenario, fossil fuels would still account for 77% of
primary energy demand. Global CO2 emissions would still be 8 Gt higher in
2030 than they are today. Oil and gas imports into the OECD and developing
Asia would be even higher than they are today and would come increasingly
from politically unstable regions, through channels prone to disruption.
In this section, we explore how greater energy savings and emissions reductions
than in the Alternative Policy Scenario might be achieved by 2030. This
Beyond the Alternative Policy Scenario (BAPS) Case responds to requests by
policy-makers to illustrate the potential for achieving still more ambitious
emissions reductions through stronger policies and more favourable
technological development, and the obstacles and implications for energy
security. The goal adopted in this Case, as a proxy for more diverse energy
objectives, is to ensure that global energy-related CO2 emissions in 2030 are no
higher than the 2004 level of 26.1 Gt.
The BAPS Case is not constrained by the criterion that only policies already
under consideration by governments are adopted. Accordingly, this case
assumes even faster and more widespread deployment of the most efficient and
cleanest technologies, thanks to more aggressive policies and measures and the
adoption of new technologies, beyond those which have already been applied
commercially today.
Achieving the BAPS Goal
Achieving the BAPS goal means reducing emissions in 2030 by 8 Gt more than
in the Alternative Policy Scenario and by 14.3 Gt compared with the
256 World Energy Outlook 2006 - THE ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENARIO
© OECD/IEA, 2007