World Energy Outlook 2006

Despite growing energy consumption and CO 2 emissions from aviation,
relatively few policies are currently under discussion to combat these trends.
The most significant is the inclusion of aviation in the European Union
Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). Another possibility is increased taxation on
aviation, both domestic and international. Policies encouraging a shift from
aviation to high-speed rail in Europe, Japan and China could also lower
demand for aviation fuel. In the United States, the Federal Aviation
Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration are
pursuing strategies to improve aviation fuel efficiency and reduce its impact
on the global climate.
In the Alternative Policy Scenario, we assume that aviation is included in the ETS
in Europe, that new aviation taxes being discussed in France, Germany and
Norway are introduced, and that a modal shift to high-speed rail takes effect.
These policies are assumed to create an incentive for airlines to introduce more
efficient aircraft more quickly, resulting in an overall increase in fleet efficiency of
2.1% per year. As a result, aviation oil consumption falls by 0.7 mb/d, or 7%, in
the Alternative Policy Scenario compared with the Reference Scenario, reaching
419 Mtoe in 2030. OECD countries see their consumption rise to 258 Mtoe in
the Alternative Policy Scenario in 2030, a saving of 7 Mtoe on the Reference
Scenario, whereas non-OECD countries’ consumption increases to 161 Mtoe, a
saving of 27 Mtoe.
Table 9.6: Aviation Fuel Consumption and CO 2 Emissions
in the Alternative Policy Scenario
1990 2004 2015 2030 Reduction in
2030*
Oil consumption (mb/d) 3.8 4.9 6.4 8.6 0.7
CO2 emissions (Mt) 458 685 909 1206 99
* Compared with the Reference Scenario.
CO 2 Emissions Trends
Aviation currently accounts for 13% of CO 2 emissions from transport, a share
that has been growing for many years. Emissions from aircraft at high altitudes
are thought to have a disproportionately larger effect on the environment than
emissions from most other sources (ECMT, 2006). The impact of aviation on
climate change is complex and uncertain with CO 2 , NO X and contrails all
playing a part. Because of the combined effects of these phenomena, the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that the total climate
impact of aviation is two to four times greater than the impact of its CO 2
Chapter 9 - Deepening the Analysis: Results by Sector 233
© OECD/IEA, 2007
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