World Energy Outlook 2006

Reference Scenario: OECD
Electricity generation (TWh) Shares (%) Growth (% p.a.)
1990 2004 2015 2030 2004 2015 2030 2004- 2004-
2015 2030
Total generation 7 571 10 118 12 185 14 468 100 100 100 1.7 1.4
Coal 3 059 3 842 4 548 5 391 38 37 37 1.5 1.3
Oil 695 527 482 297 5 4 2 –0.8 –2.2
Gas 770 1 854 2 515 3 345 18 21 23 2.8 2.3
Nuclear 1 725 2 319 2 475 2 382 23 20 16 0.6 0.1
Hydro 1 170 1 267 1 412 1 519 13 12 11 1.0 0.7
Renewables (excluding hydro) 152 310 753 1 534 3 6 11 8.4 6.3
Biomass and waste 118 196 306 485 2 3 3 4.2 3.6
Wind 4 77 358 840 1 3 6 15.0 9.6
Geothermal 29 35 59 95 0 0 1 4.8 3.9
Solar 1 2 28 103 0 0 1 29.5 17.3
Tide and wave 1 1 1 11 0 0 0 9.1 12.3
Capacity (GW) Shares (%) Growth (% p.a.)
2004 2015 2030 2004 2015 2030 2004- 2004-
2015 2030
Total capacity 2 360 2 826 3 545 100 100 100 1.6 1.6
Coal 656 749 928 28 27 26 1.2 1.3
Oil 234 226 140 10 8 4 –0.3 –2.0
Gas 654 866 1 209 28 31 34 2.6 2.4
Nuclear 305 309 296 13 11 8 0.1 –0.1
Hydro 428 458 486 18 16 14 0.6 0.5
of which pumped storage 79 79 79 3 3 2 0.0 0.0
Renewables (excluding hydro) 82 219 485 3 8 14 9.3 7.1
Biomass and waste 31 49 78 1 2 2 4.3 3.6
Wind 43 142 325 2 5 9 11.4 8.1
Geothermal 5 8 13 0 0 0 4.6 3.7
Solar 3 19 66 0 1 2 18.5 12.8
Tide and wave 0 0 3 0 0 0 4.0 9.8
CO2 emissions (Mt) Shares (%) Growth (% p.a.)
1990 2004 2015 2030 2004 2015 2030 2004- 2004-
2015 2030
Total CO2 emissions 11 051 12 827 14 391 15 495 100 100 100 1.1 0.7
Coal 4 101 4 334 4 762 5 058 34 33 33 0.9 0.6
Oil 5 029 5 713 6 320 6 628 45 44 43 0.9 0.6
Gas
Power generation
1 920 2 780 3 309 3 808 22 23 25 1.6 1.2
and heat plants 3 904 4 905 5 636 6 115 100 100 100 1.3 0.9
Coal 3 024 3 665 4 159 4 514 75 74 74 1.2 0.8
Oil 471 372 346 213 8 6 3 –0.7 –2.1
Gas 409 867 1 130 1 388 18 20 23 2.4 1.8
Total final consumption 6 553 7 274 8 063 8 625 100 100 100 0.9 0.7
Coal 1 012 589 528 474 8 7 5 –1.0 –0.8
Oil 4 196 4 967 5 598 6 030 68 69 70 1.1 0.7
of which transport 2 688 3 445 3 966 4 418 47 49 51 1.3 1.0
Gas 1 345 1 717 1 938 2 121 24 24 25 1.1 0.8
Annex A – Tables for Reference and Alternative Policy Scenario Projections 495
© OECD/IEA, 2007
A