World Energy Outlook 2006

Almost all of the 21 Mtoe savings in global coal use in 2030 in the two sectors
and the 17 Mtoe savings in heat, as well as two-thirds of the 66 Mtoe in oil
savings, occur in non-OECD regions. Only gas savings are bigger in the
OECD, accounting for 60 % of the 76 Mtoe saved in 2030. CO 2 emissions in
these sectors are 0.4 Gt lower in the Alternative Policy Scenario, with almost
half of the savings occurring in developing countries, 40% in the OECD and
the rest in the transition economies.
Figure 9.16: Change in Final Energy Consumption in the Residential and
Services Sectors in the Alternative Policy Scenario* by Fuel, 2030
–150 –100 –50 0 50
* Compared with the Reference Scenario.
Mtoe
OECD Non-OECD
Coal
242 World Energy Outlook 2006 - THE ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENARIO
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Biomass
Electricity Savings
The main driver of energy demand growth in the residential and services
sectors is the increasing importance of electrically-powered equipment and
appliances used in buildings. For example, the number of electric appliances
per European household has increased tenfold over the last three decades.
Electricity use in buildings today accounts for 53% of total world electricity
demand, up from 38% in 1971. In the Reference Scenario, this share rises
slightly to 55% by 2030. The introduction of new policies in the Alternative
Policy Scenario tempers the growth in electricity demand in buildings, so that
its share in total demand is slightly lower, at 53%. The electricity savings in the
residential and services sectors, compared with the Reference Scenario, are
2 320 TWh in 2030 (using a conversion of 1 Mtoe to 11.63 TWh), equivalent
to 412 GW of installed capacity, slightly less than the total installed capacity of
© OECD/IEA, 2007