World Energy Outlook 2006

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The efficiency of supply-side technologies is also assumed to improve more quickly in the Alternative Policy Scenario. For example, the faster deployment of biofuels is expected to bring down their production cost more quickly than in the Reference Scenario. In the power sector, renewables-based technologies are assumed to be deployed more widely, the efficiency of thermal plants is assumed to increase, and transmission and distribution losses are assumed to be reduced. Global Energy Trends Primary and Final Energy Mix In the Alternative Policy Scenario, the implementation of more aggressive policies and measures significantly curbs the growth in total primary and final energy demand. Primary demand reaches 15 405 Mtoe in 2030 – a reduction of about 10%, or 1 690 Mtoe, relative to the Reference Scenario (Table 7.2). That saving is roughly equal to the current energy demand of China. Demand still grows, by 37% between 2004 and 2030, but more slowly: 1.2% annually against 1.6% in the Reference Scenario. The impact of new policies is less marked in the period to 2015, but far from negligible: the difference between the two scenarios in 2015 is about 4%, or 534 Mtoe, close to the current consumption of Japan. Table 7.2: World Energy Demand in the Alternative Policy Scenario (Mtoe) 2004 2015 2030 2004- Difference from 2030* the Reference Scenario in 2030 Mtoe % Coal 2 773 3 431 3 512 0.9% – 929 –20.9% Oil 3 940 4 534 4 955 0.9% – 621 –11.1% Gas 2 302 2 877 3 370 1.5% – 499 –12.9% Nuclear 714 852 1 070 1.6% 209 24.3% Hydro 242 321 422 2.2% 13 3.2% Biomass and waste 1 176 1 374 1 703 1.4% 58 3.6% Other renewables 57 148 373 7.5% 77 26.1% Total 11 204 13 537 15 405 1.2% –1 690 –9.9% * Average annual rate of growth. The cost of replacing capital stock prematurely is high, even when the new stock is more energy-efficient. This limits the opportunities for change, especially over the next ten years. In the longer term, more capital stock will be added and replaced, boosting opportunities for the introduction of more efficient technologies. The gap between the demand figures of the two scenarios accordingly widens progressively over the projection period (Figure 7.2). Chapter 7 - Mapping a New Energy Future 173 7 © OECD/IEA, 2007
The reduction in the use of fossil fuels is even more marked than the reduction in primary energy demand. It results from the introduction of more efficient technologies and switching to carbon-free energy sources. Nonetheless, fossil fuels still account for 77% of primary energy demand by 2030 (compared with 81% in the Reference Scenario). The biggest savings in both absolute and percentage terms come from coal (Figure 7.3). Figure 7.2: World Primary Energy Demand in the Reference and Alternative Policy Scenarios (Mtoe) Mtoe 18 000 17 000 16 000 15 000 14 000 13 000 12 000 4% } 11 000 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Reference Scenario Alternative Policy Scenario Figure 7.3: Incremental Demand and Savings in Fossil Fuels in the Alternative Policy Scenario, 2004-2030 Mtoe 1 800 1 600 1 400 1 200 1 000 800 600 400 200 0 1 972 Mt Coal 12.9 mb/d 608 bcm Oil Gas 174 World Energy Outlook 2006 - THE ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENARIO 10% Alternative Policy Scenario Savings compared with Reference Scenario } © OECD/IEA, 2007
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The Int
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It is possible to go further and fa
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Riccardo Quercioli, Julia Reinaud,
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Alternative Policy Scenario Tera Al
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John Mitchell Chatham House, UK Hos
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S PART
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Foreword 3 Acknowledgements 5 List
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8 9 Supply 179 Inter-Regional Trade
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13 14 Prospects for Nuclear Power 3
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List of Figures Chapter 1. Key Assu
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6.9 Impact of Carbon Value on Gener
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9.13 Growth in Road and Aviation Oi
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13.3 Shares of Nuclear Power in Ele
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Chapter 2. Global Energy Trends 2.1
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11.4 Change in Primary Energy Deman
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Chapter 3. Oil Market Outlook 3.1 C
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World Energy Outlook Series World E
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half of the increase in global prim
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Will the investment come? Meeting t
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World primary energy demand in 2030
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above $4.70 per MBtu. Nuclear power
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Larger energy savings would require
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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would be needed (over and above tho
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Government Policies and Measures As
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over the projection period, as it d
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for heating, and faster improvement
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Figure 1.2: Growth in Real GDP Per
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dollars per barrel Figure 1.3: Aver
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is assumed that available end-use t
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Demand Primary Energy Mix Global pr
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een revised down and that for coal
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Mtoe 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000
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Figure 2.4: Fuel Shares in World Fi
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Table 2.2: Net Energy Imports by Ma
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capacity for oil, gas, coal and ele
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Exploration and development Explora
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China United States Middle East Ind
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illion tonnes 25 20 15 10 5 Figure
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Demand 1 Primary oil 2 demand is ex
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far the largest consumer. The econo
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new field wildcats, 1996-2005 log s
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Table 3.2: World Oil Supply (millio
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the Organization of the Petroleum E
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A lack of reliable information on p
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Table 3.3: Major New Oil-Sands Proj
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mb/d Figure 3.8: Non-Conventional O
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Investment Cumulative global invest
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amounts to around $260 billion. Inv
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Environmental policies and regulati
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growth marginally, pushing demand d
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Demand Primary gas consumption is p
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The long-term rate of increase in G
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cm Figure 4.3: Natural Gas Producti
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Table 4.2: Inter-Regional* Natural
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Box 4.1: LNG Set to Fill the Growin
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Page 127 and 128: Demand Global coal use is projected
Page 129 and 130: Figure 5.1: Share of Power Generati
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Page 133 and 134: Table 5.3: Hard Coal* Net Inter-Reg
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Page 139 and 140: Electricity Demand Outlook Global e
Page 141 and 142: TWh Figure 6.3: World Incremental E
Page 143 and 144: generating capacity from 364 GW in
Page 145 and 146: The share of non-hydro renewable so
Page 147 and 148: y insufficient LNG infrastructure.
Page 149 and 150: phase-out policies require 27 GW of
Page 151 and 152: illion dollars (2005) 5 000 4 000 3
Page 153 and 154: Increasing interconnection capacity
Page 155 and 156: (in year-2005 dollars). These refor
Page 157 and 158: Figure 6.17: Population without Ele
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Page 163 and 164: � Policies encouraging more effic
Page 165 and 166: the additional policies and technol
Page 167 and 168: fossil-fuel and renewable energy so
Page 169 and 170: Table 7.1: Selected Policies Includ
Page 171 and 172: Energy Prices and Macroeconomic Ass
Page 173: lower cost than in the Reference Sc
Page 177 and 178: global consumption of biomass is 58
Page 179 and 180: compared with 1.3% in the Reference
Page 181 and 182: production. For these reasons, we a
Page 183 and 184: mb/d Figure 7.7: Increase in Net Oi
Page 185 and 186: markets is significantly lower in t
Page 187 and 188: Production and Trade As in the Refe
Page 189 and 190: in the long run (in particular main
Page 191 and 192: Notwithstanding the rates of growth
Page 193 and 194: Figure 7.14: Global Savings in CO 2
Page 195 and 196: Investment in Energy-Supply Infrast
Page 197 and 198: Investment along the Electricity Ch
Page 199 and 200: Demand-Side Investment Additional d
Page 201 and 202: Figure 8.2: Demand-Side Investment
Page 203 and 204: Supply-Side Investment In the Alter
Page 205 and 206: Table 8.3: Cumulative Oil and Gas I
Page 207 and 208: and another to buy a car. But there
Page 209 and 210: Box 8.4: Energy Savings Programme i
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Page 215 and 216: Power Generation Summary of Results
Page 217 and 218: Table 9.2 shows the changes in elec
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Page 221 and 222: Biowaste Solar photovoltaic grammes
Page 223 and 224: The Alternative Policy Scenario ass
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As oil is the principal fuel in tra
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Fuel Economy Governments intervene
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The broad categories of policy ment
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millions 100 80 60 40 20 0 Figure 9
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period. The fleet grows most rapidl
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emissions alone (IPCC, 1999). Using
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greater use of biomass- and gas-fir
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energy-intensive processes in both
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more than 1 000 tce per tonne of st
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Almost all of the 21 Mtoe savings i
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which have much lower equipment own
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Policy Overview Policies taken into
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� Utility energy efficiency schem
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� Four-fifths of the energy and e
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Table 10.1: Most Effective Policies
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These examples reflect differences
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countries (for example in relation
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Gt of CO 2 Figure 10.2: Reduction i
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� Introduction of CO2 capture and
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Implications for Energy Security Th
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ole in power supply, if its costs c
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Introduction Since the first oil sh
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y about 60% of the increase in the
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second-largest consumer of gas - ga
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Figure 11.5: Change in Real Energy
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OECD, but remain large in some non-
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Figure 11.7: Economic Value of Ener
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Impact of Higher Energy Prices on D
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Figure 11.8: Increase in World Prim
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complicated by the role played by o
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crude oil price elasticity of fuel
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higher oil prices. Exceptional fact
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2004. It is projected to increase f
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to drive prices up. Demand appears
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on the results of our assessment of
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countries, a price increase directl
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toe per thousand dollars of GDP* 0.
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to examine the issue, reflecting th
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Table 11.5: IMF Analysis of the Mac
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actually did since 2002. 17 The ave
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0.9 percentage points higher in 200
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Most OECD countries have experience
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developing countries has risen by 4
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$0.2 trillion (see Chapter 8). The
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� The five years to 2010 will see
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spending of the 40 companies, accor
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downstream activities, including GT
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illion dollars Figure 12.4: Investm
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Table 12.2: Sanctioned and Planned
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While most upstream investment cont
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increasing by as much as 100% for a
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Figure 12.11: Availability of Petro
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and Africa account for 70% of total
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mb/d Figure 12.14: Cumulative Addit
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Figure 12.15: World Oil Refinery In
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Table 12.3: Natural Gas Liquefactio
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approved by the US Maritime Adminis
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The prospects for investment and pr
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Current Status of Nuclear Power Ren
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Nuclear Power Today Nuclear power p
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Table 13.2: The Ten Largest Nuclear
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Figure 13.3: Shares of Nuclear Powe
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Operating Licence (COL). The Energy
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Table 13.6: Main Policies Related t
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Lithuania and Bulgaria are consider
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Table 13.7: Examples of High-Level
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Outlook for Nuclear Power In the Re
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Table 13.8: Nuclear Capacity and Sh
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light-water reactors (VVER) in two
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assumptions used throughout the Out
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OECD price in 2005 and within the a
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increase in generating cost Figure
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estimates. Approximately three-quar
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disposal or reprocessing followed b
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associated with nuclear power. Expe
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Figure 13.13: Identified Uranium Re
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nuclear fuels in the long term, tho
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Figure 13.16: Uranium Oxide (U 3 O
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proliferation arising from civil nu
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Current Status of Biofuels Producti
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Czech Republic Ethanol Figure 14.1:
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Mtoe 20 16 12 8 4 0 } 95% growth 20
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equires estimates of, or assumption
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Prospects for Biofuels Production a
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32% 28% 24% 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% Fi
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Table 14.3: Summary of Current Gove
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Regional Trends Brazil Biofuels con
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Table 14.4: US Biofuels Production
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EU biofuels production and use have
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Figure 14.7: Biofuel Production Cos
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$0.50/litre in the United States (b
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Table 14.5: Performance Characteris
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for supplying biomass residues woul
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200 EJ (4 800 Mtoe) of biomass prod
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in the Alternative Policy Scenario
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CHAPTER 15 ENERGY FOR COOKING IN DE
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charcoal generates significant empl
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Figure 15.1: Share of Traditional B
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1.3 million people) are due to biom
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The effects of exposure to indoor a
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Figure 15.5: Woodfuel Supply and De
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poverty (MDG 1) and can play a crit
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Improving the Way Biomass is Used F
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In view of their ability to reduce
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Implications for Oil Demand LPG is
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50% target 2015-2030 100% provision
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The trend worldwide is towards remo
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Box 15.3: The Role of Microfinance
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The benefit/cost ratio of governmen
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$46 billion in the power sector, bu
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Administration has increased public
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Brazil’s rate of population growt
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Outlook for Energy Demand Brazil’
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domestic oil production and increas
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Industrial energy demand grows by 1
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Table 16.5: Main Policies and Progr
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southeast regions of Brazil, which
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into the Reference Scenario. End-us
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Figure 16.8: Oil and Gas Fields and
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Table 16.8: Brazil’s Oil Producti
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Figure 16.10: Brazil’s Crude Oil
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Production and Imports Gas producti
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unit would be located off the coast
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This trend is bolstered by strong g
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Figure 16.13: Planned Infrastructur
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The construction of very large hydr
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Box 16.5: Prospects for Renewable E
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stronger policies to connect bagass
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Investment The cumulative amount of
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ANNEXES © OECD/IEA, 2007
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ANNEX A TABLES FOR REFERENCE AND AL
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Reference Scenario: World Electrici
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Reference Scenario: OECD Electricit
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Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
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Reference Scenario: United States E
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Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific El
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Reference Scenario: Japan Electrici
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Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ele
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Reference Scenario: European Union
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Reference Scenario: Transition Econ
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Reference Scenario: Russia Electric
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Reference Scenario: Developing Coun
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Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
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Reference Scenario: China Electrici
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Reference Scenario: India Electrici
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Reference Scenario: Latin America E
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Reference Scenario: Brazil Electric
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Reference Scenario: Middle East Ele
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Reference Scenario: Africa Electric
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Alternative Policy Scenario: World
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD N
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Alternative Policy Scenario: United
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD P
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Japan
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Europe
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Transi
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Russia
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
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Alternative Policy Scenario: China
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Alternative Policy Scenario: India
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Latin
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Brazil
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Middle
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Africa
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ANNEX B ELECTRICITY ACCESS In a con
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Table B1: Electricity Access in 200
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Annex C - Abbreviations and Definit
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Dimethyl Ether (DME) Clear, odourle
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Ligno-Cellulosic Technology Process
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China China refers to the People’
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APS Alternative Policy Scenario BAP
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RS Reference Scenario TFC total fin
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Annex E - References ANNEX E REFERE
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CHAPTER 7: Mapping a New Energy Fut
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Gielen, D. (2006), Energy Efficienc
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International Energy Agency (IEA)/U
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CHAPTER 14: The Outlook for Biofuel
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REN21 Renewable Energy Policy Netwo
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The Online Bookshop International E
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IEA PUBLICATIONS, 9, rue de la Féd
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