World Energy Outlook 2006

It is possible to go further and faster by 2030, though the risks increase. We
have illustrated how, to complement recent IEA studies on technology
development and deployment.
No Outlook would be complete without a collection of additional insights into
the most critical energy issues of the day. This year we have sought to explain
how it is that higher energy prices are now going hand-in-hand with vigorous
world economic growth and how oil and gas investment is shaping up in the
years to 2010. We have looked in depth at two fuels which can help change the
future: nuclear power, which can play a pivotal role if public acceptance is
regained; and biofuels, which could supply a significant share of road transport
fuels by 2030. We show how to ensure 1.3 billion people can have cleaner,
more efficient cooking fuels by 2015 in order to contribute appropriately to the
UN Millennium Development Goals. Finally, we present a snapshot of Brazil,
the fifth-largest country in the world by land area and population, and one
with a unique energy economy, of significance worldwide.
Projecting the future is a hazardous process, however sophisticated the selection
of assumptions and the complexity of the energy model. The International
Energy Agency does not hold out any of the scenarios depicted here as forecasts
of the energy future. But they are reliable indications of what the future could
be on the given assumptions. It will take courage to act, often in the face of
political difficulty and controversy, to lead the world towards a more
sustainable energy future. The objectives can be achieved, by practicable means
and at a cost which does not outweigh the benefits. And those benefits are open
to all, energy suppliers alongside energy consumers and, not least, those
consumers in the countries most in need of economic development. They are
vulnerable to what the French call “l’énergie du désespoir”, the overwhelming
power of desperation. On the contrary, I confidently believe that there is “de
l’espoir dans l’énergie”.
Claude Mandil
Executive Director
4 World Energy Outlook 2006
© OECD/IEA, 2007