World Energy Outlook 2006

Over half of global energy savings in the industry sector are the result of
efficiency improvements in the iron and steel, chemicals and non-metallic
industries. Energy savings in the chemical industry contribute significantly to
total industrial savings in all regions, because of this sector’s large share in total
industrial energy use. 11 In the OECD, the iron and steel industry sees
incremental intensity gains of between 9% and 11% by 2030 compared with
the Reference Scenario. Efficiency gains in iron and steel in Russia, China and
Brazil combined are roughly of the same magnitude. In 2030, one-quarter less
energy than is projected in the Reference Scenario will be required to produce
one tonne of steel in India. This results largely from consolidation in the
industry. In developing countries, the efficiency of production of non-metallic
minerals increases considerably, providing nearly a third of their total savings
of industrial energy use by 2030.
In the Alternative Policy Scenario, CO 2 emissions in the industry sector are
6.4 Gt in 2030, some 0.9 Gt, or 12%, less than in the Reference Scenario.
However, because of the relatively larger efficiency gains in the transport and
power generation sectors, industry’s share of total energy-related emissions,
at 19%, is one percentage point higher in the Alternative Policy Scenario.
A 607-Mt reduction in coal-related emissions accounts for 70% of the total fall
in emissions from industry. Lower coal demand in China accounts for the bulk
of the reduction, with CO 2 emissions from the burning of coal 419 Mt lower
than in the Reference Scenario. Switching to gas offsets these gains to some
extent: gas-related emissions in China rise by 48 Mt. Global oil-related
emissions in the industry sector are 160 Mt, or 9%, lower in the Alternative
Policy Scenario, while gas-related emissions are 97 Mt, or 5%, lower.
Developing countries account for more than three-quarters of the total
reduction in CO 2 emissions in the industry sector worldwide in 2030. Another
14% comes from OECD countries, where industry emissions are some 120 Mt
lower. North America and Europe each register a 6% reduction in CO 2
emissions from industry compared with the Reference Scenario. Gas-related
emissions are also reduced significantly in percentage terms in transition
economies, to 243 Mt in 2030 in the Alternative Policy Scenario compared
with 275 Mt in the Reference Scenario.
Policy Assumptions and Effects
Estimating the overall impact of policies on industrial energy use is
complicated by the limited availability of data at the subsectoral level and the
diversity of industrial processes and technologies. For the Alternative Policy
Scenario analysis, energy use per tonne of output was calculated for different
11. This occurs despite the fact that no policies are considered in the Alternative Policy Scenario that
would reduce feedstock use.
Chapter 9 - Deepening the Analysis: Results by Sector 237
© OECD/IEA, 2007
9