World Energy Outlook 2006

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cumulative added volumes (billion boe) Figure 3.4: Cumulative Oil and Gas Discoveries and New Wildcat Wells 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1 st oil shock 1965 2nd Revolution in Iran oil shock 1973 1979 Rebound in global oil demand 1991 Deep-water exploration begins Gulf war 0 10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 cumulative new field wildcats 1998 2005 60 000 70 000 needed to meet rising demand until at least 2030. But more oil will need to be added to the proven category if production is not to peak before then. According to the US Geological Survey, undiscovered conventional resources that are expected to be economically recoverable could amount to 880 billion barrels (including natural gas liquids, or NGLs) in its mean case (USGS, 2000). Together with reserves growth and proven reserves, remaining ultimately recoverable resources are put at just under 2 300 billion barrels. That is more than twice the volume of oil – 1 080 billion barrels – that has so far been produced. Total non-conventional resources, including oil sands in Canada, extra-heavy oil in Venezuela and shale oil in the United States and several other countries, are thought to amount to at least 1 trillion barrels (WEC, 2004). Production Conventional crude oil and NGLs 6 In the Reference Scenario, conventional oil production continues to be dominated by a small number of major producers in those countries where oil resources are concentrated. The share of production controlled by members of 6. “Conventional oil” is defined as crude oil and natural gas liquids produced from underground reservoirs by means of conventional wells. This category includes oil produced from deep-water fields and natural bitumen. “Non-conventional oil” includes oil shales, oil sands-based extra-heavy oil and derivatives such as synthetic crude products, and liquids derived from coal (CTL) and natural gas (GTL). Chapter 3 - Oil Market Outlook 91 © OECD/IEA, 2007 3
Table 3.2: World Oil Supply (million barrels per day) 1980 2000 2005 2010 2015 2030 2005- 2030* Non-OPEC 35.2 43.9 48.1 53.4 55.0 57.6 0.7% Crude oil 32.2 38.1 41.6 45.5 45.4 43.4 0.2% OECD 14.6 17.2 15.2 13.8 12.4 9.7 –1.8% North America 11.8 10.2 9.8 9.4 9.0 7.8 –0.9% United States 8.7 5.8 5.1 5.3 5.0 4.0 –1.0% Canada 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.8 –2.2% Mexico 1.9 3.0 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.0 –0.5% Pacific 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 –1.2% Europe 2.4 6.2 4.8 3.8 2.9 1.5 –4.5% Transition economies 11.5 7.7 11.4 13.7 14.5 16.4 1.5% Russia 10.7 6.3 9.2 10.5 10.6 11.1 0.7% Other 0.8 1.4 2.2 3.3 3.9 5.3 3.6% Developing countries 6.0 13.2 15.1 17.9 18.5 17.4 0.6% Developing Asia 2.9 5.3 5.9 6.3 6.1 5.0 –0.6% China 2.1 3.2 3.6 3.8 3.7 2.8 –1.0% India 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 –0.2% Other 0.6 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.6 0.0% Latin America 1.5 3.4 3.8 4.8 5.3 5.9 1.8% Brazil 0.2 1.2 1.6 2.6 3.0 3.5 3.1% Other 1.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.5 0.5% Africa 1.2 2.6 3.5 5.2 5.5 4.9 1.4% North Africa 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.4% Other Africa 0.5 1.8 2.9 4.6 4.9 4.3 1.6% Middle East 0.5 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.4 –1.1% NGLs 2.6 4.9 5.1 5.5 5.8 6.8 1.2% OECD 2.3 3.7 3.7 4.0 4.1 4.4 0.7% Transition economies 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.2% Developing countries 0.1 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.8 2.7% Non-conventional oil 0.4 0.9 1.4 2.5 3.7 7.4 7.0% Canada 0.2 0.6 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.8 6.4% Others 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 2.7 8.2% 92 World Energy Outlook 2006 - THE REFERENCE SCENARIO © OECD/IEA, 2007
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The Int
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It is possible to go further and fa
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Riccardo Quercioli, Julia Reinaud,
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Alternative Policy Scenario Tera Al
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John Mitchell Chatham House, UK Hos
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S PART
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Foreword 3 Acknowledgements 5 List
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8 9 Supply 179 Inter-Regional Trade
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13 14 Prospects for Nuclear Power 3
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List of Figures Chapter 1. Key Assu
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6.9 Impact of Carbon Value on Gener
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9.13 Growth in Road and Aviation Oi
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13.3 Shares of Nuclear Power in Ele
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Chapter 2. Global Energy Trends 2.1
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11.4 Change in Primary Energy Deman
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Chapter 3. Oil Market Outlook 3.1 C
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World Energy Outlook Series World E
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half of the increase in global prim
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Page 45 and 46: above $4.70 per MBtu. Nuclear power
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Page 51 and 52: would be needed (over and above tho
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Page 67 and 68: Demand Primary Energy Mix Global pr
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Page 73 and 74: Figure 2.4: Fuel Shares in World Fi
Page 75 and 76: Table 2.2: Net Energy Imports by Ma
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Page 87 and 88: Demand 1 Primary oil 2 demand is ex
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Page 91: new field wildcats, 1996-2005 log s
Page 95 and 96: the Organization of the Petroleum E
Page 97 and 98: A lack of reliable information on p
Page 99 and 100: Table 3.3: Major New Oil-Sands Proj
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Page 103 and 104: Investment Cumulative global invest
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Page 107 and 108: Environmental policies and regulati
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Page 113 and 114: Demand Primary gas consumption is p
Page 115 and 116: The long-term rate of increase in G
Page 117 and 118: cm Figure 4.3: Natural Gas Producti
Page 119 and 120: Table 4.2: Inter-Regional* Natural
Page 121 and 122: Box 4.1: LNG Set to Fill the Growin
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Page 127 and 128: Demand Global coal use is projected
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Page 133 and 134: Table 5.3: Hard Coal* Net Inter-Reg
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Page 139 and 140: Electricity Demand Outlook Global e
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generating capacity from 364 GW in
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The share of non-hydro renewable so
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y insufficient LNG infrastructure.
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phase-out policies require 27 GW of
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illion dollars (2005) 5 000 4 000 3
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Increasing interconnection capacity
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(in year-2005 dollars). These refor
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Figure 6.17: Population without Ele
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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� Policies encouraging more effic
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the additional policies and technol
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fossil-fuel and renewable energy so
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Table 7.1: Selected Policies Includ
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Energy Prices and Macroeconomic Ass
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lower cost than in the Reference Sc
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The reduction in the use of fossil
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global consumption of biomass is 58
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compared with 1.3% in the Reference
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production. For these reasons, we a
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mb/d Figure 7.7: Increase in Net Oi
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markets is significantly lower in t
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Production and Trade As in the Refe
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in the long run (in particular main
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Notwithstanding the rates of growth
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Figure 7.14: Global Savings in CO 2
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Investment in Energy-Supply Infrast
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Investment along the Electricity Ch
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Demand-Side Investment Additional d
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Figure 8.2: Demand-Side Investment
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Supply-Side Investment In the Alter
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Table 8.3: Cumulative Oil and Gas I
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and another to buy a car. But there
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Box 8.4: Energy Savings Programme i
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With the exception of China (where
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Power Generation Summary of Results
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Table 9.2 shows the changes in elec
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Nuclear power capacity rises to 519
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Biowaste Solar photovoltaic grammes
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The Alternative Policy Scenario ass
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As oil is the principal fuel in tra
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Fuel Economy Governments intervene
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The broad categories of policy ment
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millions 100 80 60 40 20 0 Figure 9
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period. The fleet grows most rapidl
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emissions alone (IPCC, 1999). Using
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greater use of biomass- and gas-fir
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energy-intensive processes in both
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more than 1 000 tce per tonne of st
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Almost all of the 21 Mtoe savings i
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which have much lower equipment own
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Policy Overview Policies taken into
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� Utility energy efficiency schem
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� Four-fifths of the energy and e
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Table 10.1: Most Effective Policies
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These examples reflect differences
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countries (for example in relation
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Gt of CO 2 Figure 10.2: Reduction i
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� Introduction of CO2 capture and
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Implications for Energy Security Th
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ole in power supply, if its costs c
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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© OECD/IEA, 2007
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Introduction Since the first oil sh
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y about 60% of the increase in the
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second-largest consumer of gas - ga
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Figure 11.5: Change in Real Energy
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OECD, but remain large in some non-
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Figure 11.7: Economic Value of Ener
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Impact of Higher Energy Prices on D
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Figure 11.8: Increase in World Prim
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complicated by the role played by o
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crude oil price elasticity of fuel
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higher oil prices. Exceptional fact
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2004. It is projected to increase f
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to drive prices up. Demand appears
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on the results of our assessment of
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countries, a price increase directl
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toe per thousand dollars of GDP* 0.
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to examine the issue, reflecting th
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Table 11.5: IMF Analysis of the Mac
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actually did since 2002. 17 The ave
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0.9 percentage points higher in 200
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Most OECD countries have experience
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developing countries has risen by 4
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$0.2 trillion (see Chapter 8). The
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� The five years to 2010 will see
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spending of the 40 companies, accor
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downstream activities, including GT
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illion dollars Figure 12.4: Investm
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Table 12.2: Sanctioned and Planned
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While most upstream investment cont
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increasing by as much as 100% for a
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Figure 12.11: Availability of Petro
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and Africa account for 70% of total
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mb/d Figure 12.14: Cumulative Addit
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Figure 12.15: World Oil Refinery In
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Table 12.3: Natural Gas Liquefactio
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approved by the US Maritime Adminis
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The prospects for investment and pr
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Current Status of Nuclear Power Ren
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Nuclear Power Today Nuclear power p
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Table 13.2: The Ten Largest Nuclear
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Figure 13.3: Shares of Nuclear Powe
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Operating Licence (COL). The Energy
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Table 13.6: Main Policies Related t
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Lithuania and Bulgaria are consider
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Table 13.7: Examples of High-Level
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Outlook for Nuclear Power In the Re
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Table 13.8: Nuclear Capacity and Sh
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light-water reactors (VVER) in two
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assumptions used throughout the Out
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OECD price in 2005 and within the a
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increase in generating cost Figure
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estimates. Approximately three-quar
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disposal or reprocessing followed b
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associated with nuclear power. Expe
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Figure 13.13: Identified Uranium Re
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nuclear fuels in the long term, tho
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Figure 13.16: Uranium Oxide (U 3 O
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proliferation arising from civil nu
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Current Status of Biofuels Producti
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Czech Republic Ethanol Figure 14.1:
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Mtoe 20 16 12 8 4 0 } 95% growth 20
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equires estimates of, or assumption
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Prospects for Biofuels Production a
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32% 28% 24% 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% Fi
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Table 14.3: Summary of Current Gove
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Regional Trends Brazil Biofuels con
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Table 14.4: US Biofuels Production
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EU biofuels production and use have
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Figure 14.7: Biofuel Production Cos
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$0.50/litre in the United States (b
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Table 14.5: Performance Characteris
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for supplying biomass residues woul
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200 EJ (4 800 Mtoe) of biomass prod
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in the Alternative Policy Scenario
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CHAPTER 15 ENERGY FOR COOKING IN DE
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charcoal generates significant empl
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Figure 15.1: Share of Traditional B
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1.3 million people) are due to biom
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The effects of exposure to indoor a
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Figure 15.5: Woodfuel Supply and De
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poverty (MDG 1) and can play a crit
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Improving the Way Biomass is Used F
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In view of their ability to reduce
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Implications for Oil Demand LPG is
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50% target 2015-2030 100% provision
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The trend worldwide is towards remo
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Box 15.3: The Role of Microfinance
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The benefit/cost ratio of governmen
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$46 billion in the power sector, bu
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Administration has increased public
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Brazil’s rate of population growt
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Outlook for Energy Demand Brazil’
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domestic oil production and increas
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Industrial energy demand grows by 1
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Table 16.5: Main Policies and Progr
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southeast regions of Brazil, which
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into the Reference Scenario. End-us
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Figure 16.8: Oil and Gas Fields and
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Table 16.8: Brazil’s Oil Producti
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Figure 16.10: Brazil’s Crude Oil
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Production and Imports Gas producti
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unit would be located off the coast
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This trend is bolstered by strong g
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Figure 16.13: Planned Infrastructur
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The construction of very large hydr
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Box 16.5: Prospects for Renewable E
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stronger policies to connect bagass
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Investment The cumulative amount of
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ANNEXES © OECD/IEA, 2007
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ANNEX A TABLES FOR REFERENCE AND AL
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Reference Scenario: World Electrici
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Reference Scenario: OECD Electricit
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Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
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Reference Scenario: United States E
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Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific El
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Reference Scenario: Japan Electrici
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Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ele
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Reference Scenario: European Union
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Reference Scenario: Transition Econ
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Reference Scenario: Russia Electric
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Reference Scenario: Developing Coun
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Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
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Reference Scenario: China Electrici
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Reference Scenario: India Electrici
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Reference Scenario: Latin America E
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Reference Scenario: Brazil Electric
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Reference Scenario: Middle East Ele
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Reference Scenario: Africa Electric
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Alternative Policy Scenario: World
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD N
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Alternative Policy Scenario: United
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD P
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Japan
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Alternative Policy Scenario: OECD E
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Europe
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Transi
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Russia
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Develo
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Alternative Policy Scenario: China
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Alternative Policy Scenario: India
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Latin
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Brazil
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Middle
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Alternative Policy Scenario: Africa
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ANNEX B ELECTRICITY ACCESS In a con
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Table B1: Electricity Access in 200
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Annex C - Abbreviations and Definit
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Dimethyl Ether (DME) Clear, odourle
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Ligno-Cellulosic Technology Process
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China China refers to the People’
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APS Alternative Policy Scenario BAP
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RS Reference Scenario TFC total fin
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Annex E - References ANNEX E REFERE
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CHAPTER 7: Mapping a New Energy Fut
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Gielen, D. (2006), Energy Efficienc
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International Energy Agency (IEA)/U
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CHAPTER 14: The Outlook for Biofuel
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REN21 Renewable Energy Policy Netwo
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The Online Bookshop International E
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IEA PUBLICATIONS, 9, rue de la Féd
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