World Energy Outlook 2006

HIGHLIGHTS
CHAPTER 1
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
� The Reference Scenario takes account of those government policies and
measures that were enacted or adopted by mid-2006, though many of
them have not yet been fully implemented. Possible, potential or even
likely future policy actions are not considered.
� Global population is assumed to grow by 1% per year on average, from an
estimated 6.4 billion in 2004 to 8.1 billion in 2030. Population growth
slows progressively over the projection period, as it did in the last three
decades. Population expanded by 1.5% per year from 1980 to 2004. The
population of the developing regions continues to grow most rapidly,
boosting their share of the world’s population.
� The rate of growth in world GDP – the primary driver of energy demand
– is assumed to average 3.4% per year over the period 2004-2030,
compared with 3.2% from 1980 to 2004. It falls progressively over the
projection period, from 4% in 2004-2015 to 2.9% in 2015-2030. China,
India and other developing Asian countries are expected to continue to
grow faster than any other region. All regions continue to experience a
decline in the share of energy-intensive heavy manufacturing in economic
output and a rise in the share of lighter industries and services, particularly
in the developing world.
� Per-capita incomes grow more quickly in the transition economies and
developing countries than in the OECD. Yet per-capita incomes in OECD
countries, which increase by 57% to $44 720 in 2030, are still almost four
times the average for the rest of the world.
� The IEA crude oil import price is assumed to average slightly over $60 per
barrel (in real year-2005 dollars) through 2007 – up from $51 in 2005 –
and then decline to about $47 by 2012. It is assumed to rise again slowly
thereafter, reaching $55 in 2030. These prices are significantly higher than
in WEO-2005. Natural gas prices broadly follow the trend in oil prices,
because of inter-fuel competition and the continuing widespread use of oilprice
indexation in long-term gas-supply contracts. The price of OECD
steam-coal imports is assumed to stabilise at about $55 per tonne in the
next few years and then rise to $60 in 2030.
� In general, it is assumed that energy-supply and end-use technologies
become steadily more efficient, though at varying speeds for each fuel and
each sector, depending on the potential for efficiency gains and the stage of
technology development and commercialisation. New policies – excluded
from the Reference Scenario – would be needed to accelerate the
deployment of more efficient and cleaner technologies.
Chapter 1 - Key Assumptions 53
© OECD/IEA, 2007